Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL! - page 612. (Read 131080 times)

I doubt that this thread is very focused on the selling aspect in regards to your bitcoin strategy...

Look at the title of the thread.

The focus here remains about accumulating bitcoin and how to do it, so sure if you have reached your BTC accumulation goals, then you can start to consider the extent to which selling might fit into your BTC maintenance plans... but seems to me that the focus of this thread remains accumulation rather than maintenance or even taking profits in dollars.

There are a lot of examples in BTC history of folks who either failed to accumulate enough BTC or sold too much too soon.

It's all about buying low and selling high, that is what investing in Crypto market is, you must follow the market prepare funds when there is a dip and set up a plan on what price you are going to sell it, sometimes it takes a lot of time or a long wait before you can sell, but it's worth it as long as the coin you are holding is good you just have to be patient and wait for the right time to sell.

Well, what else can we do? If we saw our coin plunge we should take the opportunity to accumulate and then just HODL it, if it surges then sell. No one will set at a low price though so what's our choice?
The coins I think better on these buy and HODL strategies are the less volatile one like Bitcoin and Ethereum but if it is an altcoin mostly, you won't be needing to HODL I guess, the fact that most of the altcoins are highly volatile.

Thanks exstasie, that largely makes sense to me.

Definitely not much science to it. Statistics and risk management is all we have. The best we can do is back-test our strategies to statistically gauge the win rate any given trade setup yields. Then we can employ an exit strategy that is profitable and, based on our back-testing, consistently attainable.

In my experience, 3:1 or better is a good target to shoot for. That means your win rate can drop below 50% and you will still be profitable. By 3:1 I mean for every 1 unit stop lossed, I am targeting 3 units of take profit.

So if price is trading in the middle of nowhere (far from horizontal support) I avoid entering long positions because my stop losses would need to be very wide, making for a risky trade. It's nice to buy near support. That keeps your stop losses small.

I suppose that there are all kinds of variables in terms of "letting winners run,"  but maybe there are some circumstances that you can identify in which you have pretty decent odds (and therefore high confidence) to "let winners run." 

We also know that the trend tends to be your friend, but that kind of assessment might only get you to 51/49, if you are correct about identifying the true underlying trend that is dominating at the time because sometimes we might be in a long or medium term bull trend, but a short-term bear correction is taking place within that longer or medium term bull trend, and if we had bet on down for the short term.. but we cannot be sure if the correction is going down 5%, 10%, 20% or even greater because the dynamics might change along the way based on additional down momentum that is caused by getting past certain price support points.

I bet that it is quite difficult to have any kind of science in terms of figuring out at what price points to take profits or to attempt to let it ride a bit more even if believing that you understand the pattern that seems to be playing out in the short term.

Buy and hold shouldn't apply to altcoins without  case use, as we have found thousands of these projects without products backed by. Though this with few exemption but before buy anyone ensure it be a good project with prospect. The only assurance with buy and hold should be with Bitcoin and not another(altcoins to be precise). Bitcoin is that coin you can buy at dip and hold for long-term if profit is to be sure but for others I doubt.

80/20 would be crazy. In my opinion, a win rate like that implies a trader is locking in extremely small gains to prevent stop lossing, i.e. not letting winners run. You can't make much money that way.

It differs from strategy to strategy but 60/40 is pretty standard for a good trader. 50/50 is fine too, with proper risk management. If you have a rock solid 50% winning strategy implemented with a 3:1 or better reward:risk system, you should be consistently profitable.

Trading is like a competition, if you compete today and lose then someone will be the winner, and vice versa.
then those who are already deep or have a fair amount of experience are part of the 10% you say.
Like Brazil who won the world cup 5 times, we cannot call it luck because their team play is indeed great.
Likewise with the trading that we do if we always hone your skills then your chances of winning will increase.

Buy and hold are the best investment. On the dip, we are able to buy more within our budget and we are able to hold it. After some days, we will be able to make good profit from it.

I doubt that anyone with any reasonable senses is suggesting any other crypto project (aka shitcoins) to have long term strong fundamentals besides bitcoin, so surely, buying on dips and continuing to buy has to have some level of confidence in the long term fundamentals of the project in such a way that it is likely to recover.  

Of course, there can be recovery based on mere pumpening and manipulation and without fundamentals, yet it would seem quite likely that making those kinds of investments are surely very risky kinds of bets to be relying on mere pumpenings and manipulation and/or weak fundamentals (or misunderstanding the fundamentals in such a way that you conclude that value is there when there is not).


Whole topic of this thread?

Some people bought.  Some people bought a bit when it dropped from $7,500 to supra $6k, and then bought again when it went from $6k to $5k and then bought again when it went from $5k to sub-$4k for just a short while... They had only a few hours on a couple of the days around that time to buy sub $5k, and some of them did it.

Your seeming focus on sellers or holders during such a dip seems to be underplaying the likely BTC commitment that some longer term folks might have towards bitcoin, including a likely understanding that some folks have considered bitcoin fundamentals in such a way that they are not easily shaken, which should cause a decent number of those kinds of folks to buy rather than sell, and of course some will HODL (or do nothing) as you say.  

Sometimes we cannot really read too much into what people do exactly, because some HODLers may have already assessed the bitcoin situation and have determined that they have already acquired enough BTC.. whether that is a certain quantity of BTC or a certain percentage of their investment portfolio... so such people who feel that they have enough BTC may well not consider that they have additional money to buy at the time of such seemingly extreme dip (unclear at the time, but subsequently shown to feel much worse than it ended up being - and would have been a great opportunity to buy, but hard to know with any level of certainty at the time that such seemingly extreme dippening is happening).

Let's say, the above example, the one who bought on the way down, on the first BTC price drop from $7,500 to $6k, some of them blew their whole wadd when the BTC price dropped to $6k and considered $6k as a likely bottom, and sure in the whole scheme of things, BTC prices were only below $6k for about 7 days, at most, but still those 7 days felt like a pretty long ass time for many folks trying to figure out what to do and if they had more money, and can even cause some of them with the greatest of BTC commitments to feel uncertainties if the BTC price is going to continued to drop and if they might need to reconsider what to do, exactly... including subsequently determined to be BAD ideas of selling some or all of their BTC after the price had already dropped that much.



I would not emphasize those people because they are not very common, and it is NOT even a good approach, when it comes to managing your BTC portfolio... so probably more likely to characterize such people, to the extent they exist, as lucky rather than as having had "done it properly."


Yes... surely some people did get emotional during that period... and they did the wrong thing (we found out afterwards - even though we probably should have realized ahead of time that selling on the way down does not tend to be a good idea with bitcoin, generally speaking)..  Many of the sellers on the way down (or at the bottom) may not have realized that they made a mistake until several weeks after BTC got back above $6k and did NOT seem inclined to come back down...

Actually, if you look at the BTC price charts, one month after the dip, when BTC prices got back above $8k, it did not seem to want to go back below $8k  (which was surely a kind of punishment for those who sold some or all of their BTC below that price and failed/refused to buy back)...

Sure, there are no guarantees in BTC, so we could revisit $8k again, but currently, those sub $8k prices for buying in March and April are looking pretty good.


Still stressful for many of them.


That's true... the longer in, the more that HODLers can bear with some of those kinds of great price moves, even though BIG price moves like the one in mid-March likely even causes experienced HODLers some concerns (at around that time, the 200 week moving average was $5,500, and the BTC price dipped down to $3,850).. Historically, the BTC price has not tended to dip below the 200 week moving average, and even in march, that dip was short-lived.

Currently, the 200 week moving average is at about $6,700 - so sure we could get dips down to that level and of course there are no guarantees for either price direction - but still good practices to have some of these kinds of metrics in mind when considering what seems to be more plausible/possible than not.



In any event, whether you are older or younger, it tends to take a long ass time to build investment capital, so younger folks have not had as much time to build their investment portfolios.  Older peeps have had more time to build, and some have actually built and others have engaged in practices in which they have not built.  Younger folks have more time to take more risks and to recover from the risks if they end up screwing up, but there are likely better ways to take risk in order that bets are somewhat hedged.  I would think that people should want to feel as if they have built something by the time that they reach their 30s and 40s.


I cannot disagree with you, and I personally have suggested that each person consider his/her personal factors when engaging in any kind of investment, whether BTC or any other investment(s), and it surely seems that bitcoin provides way more opportunities than have traditionally been available to regular people in terms of how easy it is to get into a BTC investment and even to choose to invest small amounts, such as $1 at a time 24/7/365.  For fees and other purposes, it may be more strategically feasible to lump investments, but there are avenues and options to buy, trade or invest with low amounts on a regular basis - just a matter of learning and creativity in some of the cases - even for very poor people who may have been traditionally excluded from having such options.

Of course, the personal specifics can take quite a while to really figure out and to balance including considering specifics of: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan, carry out and tweak practices from time to time including trading (whether and how), reallocating, etc.

• Few people sold their btc being afraid of the economical crisis for pandemic.
• Most of them sold their coin being panicked.
• Many other sold it to buy again in deep.
• And few other did nothing!

The people who sold it to buy again in deep and have done it properly, was pretty successful with their plan. But I think the panic sellers haven't made good movement. And the investor who haven't did anything, gained nothing & lost nothing. Cause the price recovered quickly.

Bitcoiners who are in the crypto market from so long, have experienced this kind of pump and dump of crypto price many times. By using the experience they can take a better decision than noob bitcoiner.

Younger generation have much self confidence. They can easily realize the crypto market by analysing the price history. But people who have already made good investment portfolio at mid or older age staying ahead.

There are different kind of investor in bitcoin. Everyone won't follow any particular method in their investment plan. So the decision depends on you that how you will deal with those kind of situation.

Theres also the spread cost and quite a few people are paying for leverage because they dont have the capital so they pay to buy or sell BTC they dont actually have.  So to play the game costs more and even those correct are paying the market, the exchanges and I guess the market makers.

I think of that as a flush or flash crash where the depth of the market is exposed because too demand was placed on available orders.   Its not really a crisis especially just a bump or upset.   It means the price at that time was very inaccurate, too much happened too quickly and the full range of people involved with BTC were not part of that price movement.   It happens in main markets too, we get air pockets where the price is weak from excessive volatility and the memory stays within the charts for some time after is the theory.   Usually it means we go back and recheck prices and over greater amounts of time more are involved and we improve confidence.
   In short the people who've seen BTC for years have experienced this before and it'll knock the newer people off their feet a bit, big news events big moves are something of a tax on inexperience.   Markets try to avoid inaccurate prices, its not constructive long term so we hope the market does have trend and confidence to its price accumulation etc.   It can be very profitable speculation though, hence buy the dip but I had no idea that we'd dip that much or where or when it'd stop exactly.

But not every trader can win against other traders. A mere 10% are consistent in making all the profit FROM the other 90%-lesser-skilled-traders.

Only a few people accept this fact. They believe their losses went to "the market". It didn't, it simply went to the traders who are better than you.

Buy the dip cause it is an opportunity but be sure that the coin you are buying can easily recover when the market recovers, not those altcoins that when it dips it so hard for it to recover.

I agree with your point that traders who are analyzing the market should be able to increase the odds beyond a mere 50/50 guess.

I would be surprised that very many are able to accomplish anything close to 80/20 and that they would be employing decent risk management strategies to account for whatever purportedly reasonable probability assessment that they are able to accomplish based on their own skills.

Of course, traders would be seeking to build the higher level of skills with the passage of time and hopefully NOT losing too much money along the way while they are building up from 50/50 skill sets to something approaching 80/20, if that is even possible.

that's true if you guess the market and i'd say that it is more like a 80-20 chance with the higher being chance of losing because it wold be pure gambling with odds that can't even be measured.
but when you trade, you don't guess the market, you analyze it and try to speculate where it goes.

What did bitcoiners do during the "crisis" of March of this year?

Did what they did work for them?

Is there an overall best practice to deal with situations like March of this year?

Are there differences with a bitcoiner who has been in for 6 months or less as compared with one who has been in 1 year?  3 years?  5 years?  longer?

How about someone who is in their early 20s and just getting started in the working world, investing world and also in the building of wealth world as compared with someone who had already built some size to their investment portfolio, perhaps in their 30s, 40s or 50s?

Should they have dealt with the March of this year event differently?  How about preparing in case another March like this year event might happen?

I don't consider bitcoin as a short term investment platform. The price of btc isn't stable but it doesn't mean that if the price dropped from 11k to 10k range, you should sell it before. Bitcoin traders use the opportunity of this slightly upward and downward movement to make profit in short term. And most of the investor hold their coin for long term. Unless there is a crisis like the one happened on march this year.

guessing the market, it's like playing a game of luck with a 50 to 50 chance of winning.
if for one entry you need 1 $ and you only have 5 $ in your pocket then you can only predict up to 5 times, in contrast to people who have 100 $ to enter because they have more opportunities and also the chances are higher if your balance is more Lots.