A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/china-turns-bitcoin-focus-inward/At the end of the article he says that China still left open wiggle room to re-open exchanges. Now this may sound like good news, China is the biggest miner and trader of bitcoin. But if you know why Bitcoin has risen recently this is very bad news.
Bitcoin is skyrocketing
because it banned exchanges. The exchange ban went into full effect sept 30th. This is when bitcoins price started going to the moon. Supply and demand. Almost all of the bitcoin supply comes from China. When exchanges were shut down, none of that supply could make it to the market. Hence the price goes up.
Two situations could then crash bitcoin. First a Chinese mining ban. This would mean the supply of bitcoin would shift to other countries as china will exit the mining pool. This would cause an increase in bitcoin supply to western markets by nearly 2,000 bitcoin per day. This would cause bitcoin price to crash but it may be a slow process.
China knows what it is doing and it is trying to obfuscate what is going on behind the scenes. China wants to crash bitcoin. They will do it to lead up to their rollout of the digital crypto Yuan.
Bitcoin will go to the moon. It will go so high that the whole world will see. Then as quickly as the rise started, china will re-open the exchanges and cause an instant dump.
At that point everyone will know what caused the rise of bitcoin. Will you figure it out before that day?
I somewhat agree to your points in few areas. China has banned exchanges for now but kept the possibility open to re-open the exchanges after providing a proper framework. So the Chinese miners and continuing their mining activity and accumulating bitcoins. So if the exchanges are re-open, we will definitely see a huge dumping by the Chinese miners who will want to book their profits. That will increase the supply in the market and we will see a price correction. That may be a possibility.
However, on the flip side, I see that the demand is robust and supply is not enough. That is one reason why the price is increasing because people are wiling to pay higher price for acquiring bitcoin. Since China has already left the demand supply scene post exchange ban, their mining ban wouldn't effect the existing demand. Only the supply will be increased which can be easily soaked up by the existing demand. So these two situations are actually compensating to each other. China is already out of the equation and I don't see any major impact on bitcoin because of China's policy change.