Topic: By the time you figure out why Bitcoin has risen, it will crash. Here's why - page 3. (Read 1174 times)

your mistake is that you don't understand the difference between "trading volume" and "Supply". you think they are the same thing. you also ignore the fact that these exchanges had 0 fees and margin trading and these two increases the volume. add to that the fake volume they reported for compatition's sake and you see where you are wrong.

and you are also assuming that closing Chinese exchanges blocked the funds people had on exchanges but it was nothing like this, people withdrew their bitcoins and those coins came back to circulation. in other words the "supply" never changed.

Mate, I don't think what you are saying is 100% true. There could be some of the factors you stated as true but not all of them.
Chinese did shutdown the exchanges but the people did make use of the money in other places. Apart from that China is not the only country to supply Bitcoin. There are many other countries too. Though China is a huge contributor towards Bitcoin and the shutdown would have caused some spikes in Bitcoin's charts but reopening the exchanges wouldn't make much of a difference. The only thing I see is that the price will rather increase when China reopens Bitcoin exchanges as people would be filling their bags with Bitcoin. The mining part is a different thing now and can cause a minor dump in price.

That doesn't mean they can't trade with people from other countries. You do make a point, but I'm not sold that China is hoarding a lot of supply considering a lot of them dumped when the exchange ban was announced. Trading itself isn't banned, and I'm sure lots of them are resourceful enough to find a way to liquidate their coins. Like other people have said, they could use global exchanges, or exchange their Bitcoin for commodities, etc. The exchange ban in place does not necessarily mean that the coins can't get out of China.

Bitcoin is borderless and the Chinese have contacts all over the world, where Bitcoin is not banned. Apart from the P2P alternatives, some Chinese traders used global exchanges and some even send coins to family and contacts in other countries to trade for them.

This is why the banning of Bitcoin is so stupid. People find alternative ways to trade with "illegal" commodities, even if they have to break the local laws.

If I was a Chinese citizen and I operated a massive Bitcoin farm, I would start a new operation in another Bitcoin friendly country and fund it with bitcoins to my partner in another country. When everything is funded and operational, then I would leave the country, where Bitcoin is banned. ^smile^

It seems to me that the growth of the bitkoyna rate since September 30, simultaneously with the ban on bitcoin mining in China, is a mere coincidence. After all, the miners of China did not immediately cease their activities, and quite a long time still engaged in bitcoin mining. In addition, there were many ways to withdraw the produced bitkoyna on the world's crypto-currency markets, as evidenced by a sharp increase in applications for trade and increased trading on exchanges of neighboring countries - Hong Kong, South Korea, as well as Japan.

Nice information, but china exchanges is a part only of the supply and demand.  so if the exchanges on china opens up again surely there will be a price crash but not too fast.

on mining, i dont think that china do that.

The only thing that could not stay with your arguments is that China is not a demand leader anymore. Look at Japan and Korea markets and you will notice a true demand and a reasons of this moon journey. Also Chinese exchanges were never closed since it's legal to trade bitcoin in China. You just should not trade it with fiat.

Why you still care about China? No matter if China people's sell their bitcoin in biggest amount, there is so many people out there who wants to buy. And I don't need that graphic to guess the bitcoin price. Man, it's like you give an order to everyone to sell their bitcoin now, no I would not.

Yes we are talking about 1 country when that country made up 90% of the trading volume.  Not anymore.  The lack of supply after sept 30 caused a spike which thereafter made bitcoin reach mainstream headlines.  A positive feedback loop.  The "insider" who is VP of one of china's largest bitcoin companies I am quoting is not trying to give away the real reasoning behind China's involvement in the price hike but he keys us into a crucial fact, that china could reopen exchanges.  Knowing what we should know about the banning of exchanges drastically affecting bitcoin's price, we should know what the effect would be if they reopened exchanges... when the chinese people ultimatly will have gained 10,000% on the value of the bitcoins they put away; millions of Chinese taking their funds out of cold storage or domestic exchanges (remember domestic P2P exchanges do not add supply to international exchanges - the places where the price is calculated.  Movement of millions of coins to international exchanges will crash the market.

Okay although this does seem like a reasonable argument, I don't think the reopening of the exchanges will impact in such a way to bitcoin.
It may affect in a slight value correction but no way its gonna be a crash of bitcoin.
Whenever there is a slight reduction is value, the demand has also risen to balance it out or even exceed the demand once again.
But this definitely would be a step to look forward to, especially for traders.

This doesn't make a lot of sense. Reopening the exchanges won't impact the price the way you described in my opinion, because the Chinese people are still buying and selling their cryptocurrencies. They just moved their trades to Bithumb (and other foreign exchanges) while this entire China ban/FUD is not resolved.

you and your "Chinese insider" that you quote are missing some major point

1. exchanges were banned but people were still able to withdraw all their money and bitcoin from those exchanges to move them elsewhere and they did do that. they moved it to cold storage, back to fiat, other exchanges such as Japanese exchanges and other USD ones, P2P trading like localbitcoins,... and if you checked those places you could have seen the rise in their volume which showed the migration.
in other words the supply you have in mind just went to some other places.
also these exchanges such as Huobi, OkCoin are still open and operational. they just don't accept Chinese banks anymore

2. you are simply ignoring the rest of the world and focusing on 1 country! and we are talking about 8 billion dollar trading volume every day. without China!
and you seem to have forgotten that Chinese exchanges were reporting a huge fake volume that vanished as soon as PBoC said they want to investigate them and their fees went up from 0%

"A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:". With this statement, i am already done with this shit, Honestly, why are they Claiming it again that they are the reason for the up and down of Bitcoin's price?. Yes, They are one of the reasons why bitcoin drop when they released a statement about banning exchanges and bitcoin mining with the released news of James Dimon which added to the fuel to make Bitcoin's price drop real hard.

Are they not even considering the CME's Bitcoin Futures hype that skyrocketed Bitcoin to the casual investor and mainstream investors?, are they blind for not knowing the news about this?. Bitcoin price drop will happen surely, Bitcoin is reaching new highs within this year and with mass casual cash out of bitcoin I think it will really result to price drop.

I just don't like reading "Chinese-Bitcoin" related news and articles because everything written on it is just full of shit and lies. Let's all be realistic and clear here, These Chinese people are just trying to initialize a big FUD here and they are starting now, we should be more careful on what we read online, and be smart enough to discern what is right and what is wrong.

P2P is domestic trading only.  Banning the exchanges is very strongly reducing supply from china to the places where the price is calculated: Exchanges.  Is not the price calculated by what the price is on exchanges?  China supply can not make it to exchanges.  The large dips along the rise likely are from chinese miners finding a way to get rid of coins, but the overall picture since sept 30th is reduced Chinese supply.

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense to me. Exchanges aren't the only way for Bitcoins to hit the market. And who says they haven't? Plenty of people dumped when the ban was announced, causing a 40% dip. I'm assuming a lot of those coins came from China. And it's not like they've stopped trading since then:

https://www.coindesk.com/chinas-bitcoin-exchanges-shift-p2p-model-domestic-crackdown/

Bitcoin is alive and well over there, and I don't think reopening exchanges is going to have much of an impact on the global market.

As for the mining ban, I don't think it's going to happen. They could have done massive damage by outright banning Bitcoin, but they didn't. Their concern was capital outflows, as they have officially stated, and I really don't think there's any more to it than that. I don't see any reason to believe that China is out for Bitcoin's blood.

A Chinese insider just spilled the beans:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/china-turns-bitcoin-focus-inward/

At the end of the article he says that China still left open wiggle room to re-open exchanges.  Now this may sound like good news, China is the biggest miner and trader of bitcoin.  But if you know why Bitcoin has risen recently this is very bad news. 



Bitcoin is skyrocketing because it banned exchanges.  The exchange ban went into full effect sept 30th.  This is when bitcoins price started going to the moon.  Supply and demand.  Almost all of the bitcoin supply comes from China.  When exchanges were shut down, none of that supply could make it to the market.  Hence the price goes up.

Two situations could then crash bitcoin.  First a Chinese mining ban.  This would mean the supply of bitcoin would shift to other countries as china will exit the mining pool.  This would cause an increase in bitcoin supply to western markets by nearly 2,000 bitcoin per day.  This would cause bitcoin price to crash but it may be a slow process.

China knows what it is doing and it is trying to obfuscate what is going on behind the scenes.  China wants to crash bitcoin.  They will do it to lead up  to their rollout of the digital crypto Yuan.

Bitcoin will go to the moon.  It will go so high that the whole world will see.  Then as quickly as the rise started, china will re-open the exchanges and cause an instant dump.

At that point everyone will know what caused the rise of bitcoin.  Will you figure it out before that day?