Topic: Calling $20 solid floor (Read 2697 times)

Did I mention a market reversal? No, I just stated the current price at the time and that if you were going short, you would have made a profit already. That's all.

lollllllll

it hit $150 (the low) for like a few minutes yesterday.  Nobody is profiting if they bought the past few days, as even if it hit 200 today, that's still lower than it's average for the week, and much lower for the month.

Yes, we get it.  You want everyone to ignore the price and pretent like all is gravy in the crypto world.  By the way, there's a very big difference between FUD and reality.  By stating that the price is tanking and has been steadily over the past half year is living in reality.  The contrary would be living in denial.

A temporary 30-50 dollar bounces in a 24 hour period does not constitute a complete market reversal in public sentiment.

Dude it's at 199 already again... Seriously these BS threads need to stop, read what is actually going on, the manipulation that drives the price down that cannot continue forever. If you bought the past days you can already sell for a nice profit today.

This is all bogus considering Bitcoin's primary uses are currently insurance against fiat implosion, speculation, and lastly black market.  Your primitive formula that doesn't address it's two main uses at all is obviously not valid in this discussion when it only partially addresses the black market and nothing else.  If it was that simple, you would be a billionaire in the gold commodity market, but you already know it won't work.

Where's your variable for fear index of fiat markets amongst dozens of other missing variables?  Your forumula is not useful for predicting really anything in this context.

you are joking arent you?

this is circular logic, the transaction volume is also function of price, click on long term to see that

moreover, the transaction volume is mostly internal masturbation (inside BTC world), because adoption is still extremely low

there are calculations, comparing btc price to transaction volumes in credit cards, paypal or wire transfers etc: ranging from 4 to 5 digit prices for BTC to achieve that.

His thinking is: we are falling from 1200 so the momentum should carry us below $70.

I think it is wishful thinking.  We will see a lot of buying in the 100-150 range

The floor is nearing $127.00 then down to the $20's

$20 ?!!?! The floor is 27$

Should be interesting...

Nope, it is monetary theory.  If a monetary asset serves the purpose, and only serves the purpose, of buying stuff with, then its value (in fact, the inverse: the price of the goods expressed in that monetary asset) can easily be found using P x Q = M x V.

It's simple bookkeeping:

"the amount of money over the counter"  = "the total price of all the goods and services bought with it"  (in a given period).

The amount of money over the counter = the amount of money existing, times the average number of times a same unit has been spend.   That is M x V.  M = the amount of money existing, V is the average number of times the same unit is spent (in the given period).  It is also called the VELOCITY of the money.  V = 1/T, where T is the average holding time (in number of periods).

If the considered period is 1 year, and a coin gets spend on average 12 times per year (once a month), then the velocity is 12.  The holding time is 1/12 (of a year which is a month).

If there are 1000 coins, and they are on average spend 12 times a year, then 12 000 coins went over the counter to buy stuff with that year.

That must then be equal to the total price of goods that was bought, which is P x Q, where Q is a "reference good" and P is the price of the reference good.  Say that the reference good is "a loaf of bread", then the total amount of goods (expressed in equivalent loafs of bread) exchanged in a year is Q, and P is then the price of a loaf of bread.

P x Q is nothing else but the total price of all the goods that was bought, so it must be 12 000 coins too.

Hence, M x V = P x Q

Example: if the total amount of goods bought with bitcoin is $20 billion a year, and a bitcoin is held on average 14 days, then V is about 25.  M being 15 million (coins) we have that M x V = 375 million (coins traded a year).

If we take as "reference good" something that's worth $1.0 we have:


375 million = P x $20 billion.

P is the price (in bitcoin) of the reference good (worth $1).  So 1/P is the price of a bitcoin.

We find: 1/P = 20 000 / 375 = $53.3


So if bitcoin is used to buy 20 billion worth per year, and coins are on average held 14 days between a trade, the price of a coin should be $53.

What we have is that a lot of coins were held a lot longer, but a lot less stuff was bought with it.
It was not really used as a currency.

what do you mean transaction volume what the price would be then? am i missing something?

its not going up any time soon. Unfortunately the price will get lower and lower until it matches the actual transaction volume

meh, meh.

I'm not looking for it to change my situation. Just making a statement.

Calling people names won't change your situation dude.

Dropped from £170 to £128 in the last 2 days, what is this market lol.

You mad bro? I can feel your pain. I'd be as mad as you are seeing my savings melt like this. I am just alerting people. It may be a good time to sell now coz bitcoin price dropping every day for almost a year now.

I never said i'm done with bitcoin. I am willing to buy back my bitcoins when the price is about $20 as I believe it is the rock bottom everyone is looking for. Even if you believe in bitcoin there is no point in losing your money during this bubble burst.

This exact statement was said like 100 times about $200 6 months ago.

Guys, just ignore these posts. Why do you insist on interacting with these idiots? They're still posting on a bitcoin forum about being "done" with bitcoin (or some other ridiculous state of affairs like $20/BTC). Don't you see the stupidity here? First they were too stupid to get out for their own liking, lost money, and now they're too stupid to stop wasting their fucking time on an asset they now despise and don't value. At the core, they're stupid, so stop interacting with these fucking idiots.

1. I wish I had weaker hands so I'd sell few months earlier
2. What makes you think it won't?

I also think that. But if  happening, will be slowly.