Calling bottom in September 2018 - page 4.

Febo

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on July 06, 2018, 10:35:39 AM

OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom? A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC. I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to. And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound. Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

Well. Calling it 3 months ahead makes it call it first.

I do know it also gives me way more chances to be wrong. I am no PRO, I dont even trade just buy and hold. All i care is to predict when next growth will start to have more fun holding.

Quote from: Cosbycoin on July 05, 2018, 06:07:52 AM

Its seriously funny to compare 2013 to 2018. Back than there was dozens of us DOZENS I say, whereas in 2018 there are millions of people not only buying and selling crypto but also started to use it as well. There is not a single chance it will resemble it on a long enough time period.

Oh those charts are not identical. Bitcoin in 2014 was $500 and now is $5000. That is far from the same. 2018 chart is projected on 2014 chart , that is what I did. If we would have same number of users as in 2014 we would be around 2014 price and not around 2018.

XinXan

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on July 06, 2018, 10:35:39 AM

OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom? A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC. I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to. And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound. Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

Anyone who claims to know when and what a bottom is going to be is a fool. Technical analysis is not meant to guess exactly the price and date of a stock. You can only make educated predictions based on percentages and it's never going to be: Bitcoin 7345.32$ in 23 days and 4 hours.

The best way to know if it's a bottom is to indeed wait for it to form and then look for confirmation, for example a double bottom like we had followed by good bullish volume and candlesticks.

The Sceptical Chymist

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OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom? A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC. I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to. And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound. Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

BrewMaster

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Quote from: Kylapoiss on July 05, 2018, 11:06:25 AM

Quote from: Biscutard on July 01, 2018, 05:34:34 PM

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

Probably not, we might be seeing some bullish signs at the moment but it probably will come test lower levels, maybe touch even 3xxx, though I think that's unlikely. I'm thinking it will come down to 48xx levels, no real TA behind it, just SOMA (Straight Off My Ass, copyrighted by someone). Late 2014, early 2015 nobody thought it will go lower than 250, but it went and stayed there for some time. But yeah, much has changed since then, more adoption and more "smart money", so we really can't take the past into account.

here you go, have a merit for your honesty Cheesy

anyways in 2015 the price had reached the bottom between $200 and $250, there is always some fluctuations in the market so t here is a range of price as the bottom, mostly at $220 though. and the drop that happened was a one time short lived dump that pushed the price to $150 for a couple of hours only before it jumped back up. it was done to test the strength of the buy support by some whale and the fast jump back proved the accumulation that was happening back then.

magneto

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If we do refer to the last cycle which I think is really a valuable reference point to look to, then you'll see that prices actually bottomed at around February to April of 2015, which was actually around 1.5 years after the bear market had begun. Obviously, this is not something that will be replicated perfectly, but cycles should generally stay the same imo for a bull and bear market. Prices usually rise until a year or so after the halving, then the bear market kicks in for 1-2 years.

Also taking into account how big of a percentage was lost of BTC from its peak value (around 85% I believe from the 2014 bear market), I do think that there is some more dips and dumps that we'll have to go through before we bottom.

I would say that September is probably too soon, it's much more likely that this year will just continue to be extremely bearish. However, next year will most likely see prices bottom (imo, around $3-4k is likely) and the start of a recovery, but even then the markets wouldn't be as bullish as last year.

Kylapoiss

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Quote from: Biscutard on July 01, 2018, 05:34:34 PM

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

Probably not, we might be seeing some bullish signs at the moment but it probably will come test lower levels, maybe touch even 3xxx, though I think that's unlikely. I'm thinking it will come down to 48xx levels, no real TA behind it, just SOMA (Straight Off My Ass, copyrighted by someone). Late 2014, early 2015 nobody thought it will go lower than 250, but it went and stayed there for some time. But yeah, much has changed since then, more adoption and more "smart money", so we really can't take the past into account.

STT

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Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 08:58:52 AM

My call is quite optimistic. It predict this cycle will happen 40% faster then last one, so also recovery to happen 40% faster. What if reality is that this cycle will be 40% slower than the last one? Now that would be pessimistic since bottom would happen in June 2019 and first signs of recovery in August 2020. Man that would be so depressing.

Yea thats a fair point but also in 2013, Bitcoin did make the national news and the big deal there imo was the actual deflation of the Mt.Gox event which destroyed the public image of bitcoin. I'm not saying Bitcoin the protocol was at all impaired and everyone here knew that and might have said it but the public image is the tail which wags the dog.

The vast population of people out there who dont exactly know what Bitcoin is but use it anyway briefly or regularly even is the big weight that will drive crypto to success or back to obscurity.

It was natural for 2013/14 cycle to take longer to smooth out. Also there is the halvening event which helped put a tail wind, if only slight in the direction of an upwards price build. But we have 2 years to wait for that now, that part of the cycle will not coincide. Could we benefit from something else, maybe Dollar becomes much weaker then anyone expected again the public dont really know USD $ has problems maintaining value so its an effect not yet in the price and BTC is quoted as a ratio to USD so it does matter

Indamuck

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Good luck waiting to buy the bottom because we already reached the lowest point. You will be waiting forever and look like an idiot. This time is different, bitcoin is more well known and widely used. These bear markets are much shorter now. 6k is the lowest we can go due to mining costs.

gabmen

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Quote from: Harlot on July 05, 2018, 06:59:58 AM

I don't think that "calling bottom" is the right word to use as we still don't know if it will go down at this point. It may just be a reversal from its consolidation now. So maybe calling September as a break out point might be a more appropriate term. Because as of right now it is showing signs of bullishness as it has rallied to more than 700$ in just a little over a week. Yes a lot of people are calling this one last pump before the "big drop" but unless it happens we still need to keep our eyes open for the best plan.

That's pretty much all we can hope fo right now. Nothing's really certain at this point. Even that chart can't really give us a guarantee of what will happen though it's up to people to follow these analyses and predictions.

dothebeats

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It's mesmerizing to know that there's a possibility that the price will just follow what we've witnessed back in the 2013 ATH after the blow-off, however, market conditions back then weren't similar to what we have right now. There are a lot of players in the game right now that it's hard for a few manipulators to do their thing. Aside from that, regulations are also helping bitcoin accelerate the phase of adoption, so that should also be considered. If the market is to follow the previous movement, I wouldn't mind having another bottom @ September and recovery a year after that, knowing that the previous bearish cycle lasted for nearly 3 years. All in all we're still good since our new bottom is much much higher compared to where it was 5 years ago, and that sets us to higher ATH in the next bullish cycle.

Harlot

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I don't think that "calling bottom" is the right word to use as we still don't know if it will go down at this point. It may just be a reversal from its consolidation now. So maybe calling September as a break out point might be a more appropriate term. Because as of right now it is showing signs of bullishness as it has rallied to more than 700$ in just a little over a week. Yes a lot of people are calling this one last pump before the "big drop" but unless it happens we still need to keep our eyes open for the best plan.

Ngemmeng

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hopefully what you say is true and will be true, and I will be patient to wait for the next pump at the end of the year. will reach $30k in the next pump Wink

YuginKadoya

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All of your speculation are good but I really think it can not be accurate because we might have a different outcome when it comes to what may happen in the end of this year, I can clearly see the bottom back then to be at $7000 mark but on the recent hacking news it all came in a collapse that we can sure see another Bull run but Maybe? I can be wrong even if you see a speculation regarding the recent movements there still a chance to have a different outcome.

Cosbycoin

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Quote from: Febo on June 29, 2018, 07:21:26 AM

I have no ideas what price will be. I dont really care much about that but while comparing last bitcoin cycle with this cycle (at least what we saw so far) I do believe bottom will happen in upcoming September.

This is start of last Bitcoin cycle in 2014 and this is what we have so far in this cycle:

You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%. Placing this factor to the other data of previous bitcoin cycle I got to month of current cycle bottom and that will happen in September. Recovery should start in April 2019.

So basically we will have almost a year of cheap Bitcoins. Cheapest you will ever get. Do not blew this lifetime chance. It is there for whole year.

And I got this two charts here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8up21s/my_prediction_take_it_or_leave_it_trading_view/

Its seriously funny to compare 2013 to 2018. Back than there was dozens of us DOZENS I say, whereas in 2018 there are millions of people not only buying and selling crypto but also started to use it as well. There is not a single chance it will resemble it on a long enough time period.

This has been said multiple times before but you had to adjust the pace by %40 just so it can even resemble 2013. The price will do what it does without looking at the months of the year.

Febo

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Quote from: Biscutard on July 01, 2018, 05:34:34 PM

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

I am pretty sure we will see Bitcoin lower maybe even way lower. But this gives you chance of a lifetime to buy some more Bitcoins. And this chance will be half year to year long so even if you dont have founds for it you can earn them somehow. This is great chance everyone have and is pretty clear.

Biscutard

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Quote from: Febo on June 29, 2018, 07:21:26 AM

I have no ideas what price will be. I dont really care much about that but while comparing last bitcoin cycle with this cycle (at least what we saw so far) I do believe bottom will happen in upcoming September.

This is start of last Bitcoin cycle in 2014 and this is what we have so far in this cycle:

You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%. Placing this factor to the other data of previous bitcoin cycle I got to month of current cycle bottom and that will happen in September. Recovery should start in April 2019.

So basically we will have almost a year of cheap Bitcoins. Cheapest you will ever get. Do not blew this lifetime chance. It is there for whole year.

And I got this two charts here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8up21s/my_prediction_take_it_or_leave_it_trading_view/

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

masterkiller

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Quote

You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%.

I agree. We already had 3 "hills and valleys" after ATH so we are in October 2014. So 10 months on left chart is 6.5 months on right chart. But I don't agree with 'bottom in September 2018'.
Bottom was in January 2015, so 13 months from ATH.
14*0.6 = 7.8
So bottom should be 8 months from ATH in December 2017. So I'm calling bottom in August and start of recovery to another ATH in February 2019 and ATH in October 2019.

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 30, 2018, 05:23:37 AM

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

The halving is a very important supply event though, and what really matters is supply/demand. Even though everyone knows it's coming (and so people think it's priced in), I think history has shown it has a strong psychological effect.

I don't get too caught up on fundamentals anyway, because it's too hard to gauge their effects on the market (beyond "strong fundamentals, long term bullish").

Quote from: 1Referee on June 30, 2018, 05:23:37 AM

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

You never know. It depends on the market cycle. If an ETF is approved well into a bull run, it could just be time for a blow-off top (like with the CME futures listing). ETFs can also be shorted, and I imagine inverse ETFs won't be far behind either.

Also, it's my understanding that the coins backing the Winklevoss Trust are already removed from supply (they already own them). Not totally sure about SolidX or others, but I wouldn't assume that upon approval, hundreds of thousands of BTC need to be immediately bought to back the ETF.

MMA

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Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 08:58:52 AM

Quote from: zakariajaki on June 30, 2018, 06:24:05 AM

my opinion after reading the above graph feels there is a fear of the future of crypto especially bitcoin, but I am a little optimistic about the future when crypto has passed the regulations made by the government in every country, while for the price issue I think no matter the rise and fall of bitcoin price it ordinary all definitely experience it do not panic keep the spirit and success for us all

My call is quite optimistic. It predict this cycle will happen 40% faster then last one, so also recovery to happen 40% faster. What if reality is that this cycle will be 40% slower than the last one? Now that would be pessimistic since bottom would happen in June 2019 and first signs of recovery in August 2020. Man that would be so depressing.

Quote from: 1Referee on June 30, 2018, 05:23:37 AM

Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 05:15:01 AM

Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier. So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

I had seen a lots of good news happening at end of 2014 and in beginning of 2015 and after each good news price of Bitcoin went down. I do believe this part of cycle is still ahead of us.

Yes that can be right because in current time the bitcoin users are are much more as compare it to previous time and still people are entering in bitcoin world, therefore i also think that we will see a rapid recovery in bitcoin price. People just need some confident and no doubt that they will start investing their money in bitcoin which will surely boost bitcoin price.

fabiorem

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Thats a good analysis, but you are supposing a slow recovery, like the one in 2015. However, back at the day, bitcoin did not have so many use cases as today. I think the use cases might lead to a faster recovery.

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