Calling bottom in September 2018 - page 5.

1Referee

legendary

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Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 08:58:52 AM

I had seen a lots of good news happening at end of 2014 and in beginning of 2015 and after each good news price of Bitcoin went down.

If it isn't straight manipulation, it's called buy the rumor sell the news. In most cases the price increases in advance of what's going to happen. In case we know that certain things are about to happen, we can position ourselves in the market properly based on that. Last year we have had one major opportunity to do so, and this year with the consensus event. Trading against the sentiment has always been the most profitable exercise in a retail driven market.

Quote from: buwaytress on June 30, 2018, 10:38:50 AM

But like you, I tend to believe that it's the strengthening of what already makes Bitcoin so valuable that will eventually add on to its price: LN is definitely one of those. Yes, as a scaling solution (albeit temporary one in the span of years) but also an indication that the network continues to develop as needed, in the same careful, cautious approach that has built Bitcoin's reputation as mature and robust.

I strongly believe LN to be Bitcoin's killer application. Great thing with LN is that even on that second layer you can run a third and fourth layer, which is insanely bullish. Scaling will be taken care of, people will be rewarded for providing liquidity to LN, everyone will be happy. We need to get rid of the speculative nonsense and make people actually need coins for other purposes.

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 30, 2018, 05:23:37 AM

Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 05:15:01 AM

Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier. So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

Yeah. And it has been as aspect that's been considered even as early as middle of last year, which leads me to believe much of this was priced into the December rally (and perhaps forgotten, and will play a considerable part in pushing another rally leading up to it).

But like you, I tend to believe that it's the strengthening of what already makes Bitcoin so valuable that will eventually add on to its price: LN is definitely one of those. Yes, as a scaling solution (albeit temporary one in the span of years) but also an indication that the network continues to develop as needed, in the same careful, cautious approach that has built Bitcoin's reputation as mature and robust.

Febo

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Quote from: zakariajaki on June 30, 2018, 06:24:05 AM

my opinion after reading the above graph feels there is a fear of the future of crypto especially bitcoin, but I am a little optimistic about the future when crypto has passed the regulations made by the government in every country, while for the price issue I think no matter the rise and fall of bitcoin price it ordinary all definitely experience it do not panic keep the spirit and success for us all

My call is quite optimistic. It predict this cycle will happen 40% faster then last one, so also recovery to happen 40% faster. What if reality is that this cycle will be 40% slower than the last one? Now that would be pessimistic since bottom would happen in June 2019 and first signs of recovery in August 2020. Man that would be so depressing.

Quote from: 1Referee on June 30, 2018, 05:23:37 AM

Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 05:15:01 AM

Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier. So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

I had seen a lots of good news happening at end of 2014 and in beginning of 2015 and after each good news price of Bitcoin went down. I do believe this part of cycle is still ahead of us.

zakariajaki

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my opinion after reading the above graph feels there is a fear of the future of crypto especially bitcoin, but I am a little optimistic about the future when crypto has passed the regulations made by the government in every country, while for the price issue I think no matter the rise and fall of bitcoin price it ordinary all definitely experience it do not panic keep the spirit and success for us all

1Referee

legendary

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Quote from: Febo on June 30, 2018, 05:15:01 AM

Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier. So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

Febo

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 29, 2018, 11:17:17 PM

you know what, if you compare it with 2013-2014 enough times it may come true. that is how speculation sometimes work. it doesn't have to be true! people have to believe in it for it to come true. so if enough traders start to believe that this trend is the same as 2014 then we will see it repeated.
it is like halving. there are good reasons for the price rise after the halving but not before. but as we can see price rises before it because people believe in certain trends.

Last cycle halving happened 9 months before price reach old ATH so $1200. This time events should happen at about same time. Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier. So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

pooya87

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you know what, if you compare it with 2013-2014 enough times it may come true. that is how speculation sometimes work. it doesn't have to be true! people have to believe in it for it to come true. so if enough traders start to believe that this trend is the same as 2014 then we will see it repeated.
it is like halving. there are good reasons for the price rise after the halving but not before. but as we can see price rises before it because people believe in certain trends.

btc_angela

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Thanks for the analysis @Febo, it really looks like this bear market will still linger up to the end of the year so we better prepare for the worst. I already told myself that not to expect something big this year, as we all know that the confidence or interest of investors has change as well. So we should take this opportunity to get more bitcoins as we can because its cheap and all we do is hold and wait for that massive bull run that everyone is waiting to happen.

Vasilije69

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Well, let's hope you are right. I think that with next big pump BTC can reach even $100k.
Now, our job is to wait carefully and to try to collect as many BTC as we can until that pump starts. Afterwards, we are going to moon Cool

Febo

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I have no ideas what price will be. I dont really care much about that but while comparing last bitcoin cycle with this cycle (at least what we saw so far) I do believe bottom will happen in upcoming September.

This is start of last Bitcoin cycle in 2014 and this is what we have so far in this cycle:

You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%. Placing this factor to the other data of previous bitcoin cycle I got to month of current cycle bottom and that will happen in September. Recovery should start in April 2019.

So basically we will have almost a year of cheap Bitcoins. Cheapest you will ever get. Do not blew this lifetime chance. It is there for whole year.

And I got this two charts here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8up21s/my_prediction_take_it_or_leave_it_trading_view/

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