I think that the first will be the more likely case. To a certain degree we see this play out already. Dumb money is invested in altcoins for the main part, while smart money parked most of its capital in Bitcoin. Institutions are building products around Bitcoin, not shitcoins. Wealthy individuals buy Bitcoin and not shitcoins.
Dumb money as we speak is desperately hoping for an altcoin season to see their bags pump, while the smart money can sit back and enjoy looking at how the only coin with a legitimate usecase is leaving the altcoins behind.
The main thing is that the more money you have, the more there is for you to lose, so from there it makes perfect sense to buy into the least risky asset in this space. Those with little capital and hopes of becoming rich try their luck by investing in the worst shitcoins hoping to 10-100x their money.