Can one have any expertise in Speculating? - page 2.

Lecam

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Quote from: Pipdips on December 03, 2019, 04:36:22 PM

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

I think some have expert in speculation they good and feel what the next move. That is why they are expert and they know and feel what is happening in the next month or years. But many also are they are speculating only try to convince others that they are good but not. So speculation is an expert to do for someone else that is a gift for them i think they are lucky.

milewilda

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There's no better speculator as you're still speculating, you're just reading rumour after rumour without backing it up with anything that doesn't make your bet very likely to happen. If you want a more proactive approach to rumours, I think the best thing to do is to do your own analysis not only by doing the rumour's background research, but also by reading the charts from technical analysis and see if it really supports it. Speculation is not going to lead you to anything.

Theres no such thing about being expert with speculating yet we do all presume things basing on what we do read and hear through the net.We know that even speculations with having good analysis doesnt still give out precise results or not 100% accurate.. What differs here is on how people do people make their guess.

wxa7115

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run

But no one is asking for that kind of precision, we know that is impossible, in order to be good at speculating what the market is going to do you just need to be right most of the time, if you can predict 6 out of 10 times what the market is going to do then you're going to make money in the markets.

But if you are better than that most likely you are going to make a lot of money and you could probably dedicate yourself exclusively to the markets and become a financial manager because those kind of skills are very rare and people pay very good money to have someone that can predict what the market is going to do most of the time.

cutesgirl

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run

No one have good prediction about how bitcoin price on the next week, although how many year have been in bitcoin and altcoin world always ever make with wrong prediction with bitcoin and altcoin price, although many bad news when Iran and United State still war make prediction about bitcoin will be difficult to prediction.

wxa7115

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Quote from: fravia on January 05, 2020, 05:34:17 PM

It's very simple to answer the issue. Investment bankers and stock brokers are people who are good at speculating. This is a real job done every day by thousands of people. Yeah, you can understand it, you can do it well. Hundreds of books are on the subject. There are even some world-renowned experts in the field and you can be one if you have sufficient experience.

One of the many misconceptions people have about the markets is that to be good at speculating you need to predict the market correctly all the time and that is not possible, an average person will predict correctly the direction the market will take 50% of the time.

A good speculator could predict what the market is going to do 60% of the time, it may not seem that much better but that is a huge edge against the average person and the best speculators could predict the market 70% of the time and they are the superstars as they can make money very quickly in any market.

STT

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Speculative ability is a talent I think, its very easy to speculate and end up with a loss. Some consider it gambling but its judging changing factors correctly with some basis on experience. In addition despite the use of leverage we are taking about the deployment of capital and money management to good effect.
Its not what I consider an easy win, a simple bet is far less hassle and less involved however speculating means the odds are self determined and that is the skill to judge correctly.

fravia

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It's very simple to answer the issue. Investment bankers and stock brokers are people who are good at speculating. This is a real job done every day by thousands of people. Yeah, you can understand it, you can do it well. Hundreds of books are on the subject. There are even some world-renowned experts in the field and you can be one if you have sufficient experience.

Cacingkemi

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maybe for some of us to be able to speculate with certainty about future market price movements, and some of them are accurate because of speculations made from strong instincts that can carefully read market charts. but most of the speculations made by everyone about market price movements are, of course, many unexpected. because basically market price movements cannot be ascertained and determined by anyone.

vicoma

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It is hard to predict the future accurately but you can be an expert if you read a lot of books, follow and watch expert videos on the subject matter. Nevertheless, there is no way to be 100 percent accurate always as there are a lot of factors that will determine the outcome.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Zemomtum on January 03, 2020, 06:51:40 PM

Your question is unclear though but you can become expert in anything you are doing consistently. This is indeed a hard work that you need to know what those who get it right often do use by following their blog, video or other social channels. They usually share their experiences.

This is not completely true, how many people do you know that have been doing the same job for decades and they have not improved at all for a very long time and they ask you the same questions over and over again, if you want to become a better speculator then you need to study technical analysis and make a set of predictions about the markets and keep records of those predictions and see what it is that happened that made your predictions wrong.

If you do this for long enough your ability to predict the markets will definitely improve but almost no one takes the time to do anything remotely close to that.

Arkann

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Quote from: atjiat on January 04, 2020, 06:41:26 AM

Quote from: vintages on January 03, 2020, 06:27:45 PM

Quote from: ontrackk on January 01, 2020, 12:01:40 PM

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

I tend to call it 'guessing' cause that's what most people do. People guess what they 'hope' the price will be and get disappointed when it didn't work out.
We should look at the long term instead of short term, I notice that long term price prediction is almost closer than short term price prediction.

In any case, each cryptocurrency user acts at his discretion or under the influence of any forecasts or news. One way or another, each trader is engaged in speculation in one way or another, having minimal results. But in my opinion, only cryptocurrency users who work together with certain groups or communities, creating certain situations in the cryptocurrency market regarding certain coins can be a truly successful speculator.

We are constantly outraged when it comes only to fraud on the cryptocurrency market and about the not very good influence of speculators on certain projects that may have prospects in the future or that do not show good results at all, but at the same time, such coins are supported by speculators at a high level, only in order to get real profit. Based on this, it is possible to accurately answer the question posed by the author of the topic that every speculator who has good results in his activity receives a certain experience, which he applies in his activity now and will apply it in the future. But for you to understand me, speculation is not a negative phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market, because only certain groups of people use this type of activity with a negative for the entire cryptocurrency market.

atjiat

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Quote from: vintages on January 03, 2020, 06:27:45 PM

Quote from: ontrackk on January 01, 2020, 12:01:40 PM

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

I tend to call it 'guessing' cause that's what most people do. People guess what they 'hope' the price will be and get disappointed when it didn't work out.
We should look at the long term instead of short term, I notice that long term price prediction is almost closer than short term price prediction.

In any case, each cryptocurrency user acts at his discretion or under the influence of any forecasts or news. One way or another, each trader is engaged in speculation in one way or another, having minimal results. But in my opinion, only cryptocurrency users who work together with certain groups or communities, creating certain situations in the cryptocurrency market regarding certain coins can be a truly successful speculator.

Zemomtum

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Your question is unclear though but you can become expert in anything you are doing consistently. This is indeed a hard work that you need to know what those who get it right often do use by following their blog, video or other social channels. They usually share their experiences.

funbarrel

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Speculation would not be based on your own research or a mixture of ideas and opinions between yourself and others. It's going to depend on you which one you'd pursue as long as you can make money with it, so your decision and that's where danger comes in. Expertise isn't really the right word for this one yet it's not a skill that can be acquired yet we're dealing with speculative things because price is volatile and lots of factors that affect it, but somehow because of experience, we can presume things either based on patterns or signs we've known before.

purebitco

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There's no better speculator as you're still speculating, you're just reading rumour after rumour without backing it up with anything that doesn't make your bet very likely to happen. If you want a more proactive approach to rumours, I think the best thing to do is to do your own analysis not only by doing the rumour's background research, but also by reading the charts from technical analysis and see if it really supports it. Speculation is not going to lead you to anything.

vintages

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Quote from: ontrackk on January 01, 2020, 12:01:40 PM

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

I tend to call it 'guessing' cause that's what most people do. People guess what they 'hope' the price will be and get disappointed when it didn't work out.
We should look at the long term instead of short term, I notice that long term price prediction is almost closer than short term price prediction.

STT

legendary

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I dont especially agree on the point about contrarian sentiment because trading is about capturing momentum. Its a break of a trend often but only in reference to a larger or longer term price pattern repeating.
Anyone can speculate just like anyone can bet, you have to be ready to pay the price often in order to get the gains. Part of the process is gaining experience and identifying common times a price can move in one direction especially, obviously the release of news is one of those times but often the graph will show price accumulating before that energy is obvious in moving the price one way or other. The tricky point is that a very bearish pattern can flip and move upwards, especially in BTC alot of people try to enter at a price they think will gain.

hulla

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Quote from: ontrackk on January 01, 2020, 12:01:40 PM

I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

You make a good point but checking at the author of this thread messages hes actually want to be a good speculator and asking for advise if reading through the speculation cone by people will help him but i believe watching some genuine expertise youtube video is enough. However, spening much time on speculation or trading seems not to be good to me because the result are not always correct and it better to be a holder most time.

ontrackk

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I'm suggesting that there's no one who can forecast exactly what the bitcoin price will be next week. How can we believe that these years to come price predictions are going to be right? Bitcoin is not like government security bonds that will yield a steady return, full of uncertainty, and can bear any price. Stop predictions like that. If you're trying to predict price rather than long-term trend, you're going to get ruined in the long run.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Barbut on December 27, 2019, 03:51:12 PM

Quote from: Omnipotent1 on December 26, 2019, 05:45:05 PM

I sort of wonder about this because of that Jeopardy guy James Holzhauer and his incredible ability of consuming an unlimited amount of information and his recall ability. Add to that superior knowledge and common sense and a person like that would be great in speculating. 2nd to known.

Who is good in speculating have a nice winning rate, simple as that. How do they do it? They have a great analytic skill, they have the ability to process the info they collect everywhere around. Not everyone can do it, but many will try to have a winning rate in trading.
Can one have expertise in speculating, yes! If he is deep inside what he speculating about! If he knows how things work and where to look for info, if he have friends everywhere around who tip him with some info all the time.

If what you want is to increase the accuracy rate of your predictions then you need to reduce their time frame, most of us are interested in the long term trajectory of bitcoin and we decide to make predictions about where the price is going to be during the next months or even years and with the huge amount of factors that are outside of our comprehension then it is easy to see how we are bound to make many mistakes if we choose such a long time frame.

So an effective way to improve your ability to predict the market is to concentrate yourself in smaller time frames and if you add good money management skills you could easily become a profitable day trader.

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