Topic: Can the US become EU's oil supplier?? - page 2. (Read 441 times)

Didn't know that you have a talent like that, to see the future lol but seriously war's between Russia and Ukraine can really end soon once they got bored or no other places to destroy anymore but no, EU and other countries aren't going to forget about the trauma that they built. EU can use renewable energies but I think it's not that efficient but they might still need the traditional oil but there are still countries where they can get oil not only in Russia.

The number 3 on your list is already happening. That was what Russia is doing during the time the sanctions are applied and maybe those countries who got the oil can resell it again to other countries for an extra price.

Thanks to Iran and Iraq.  US is not a supplier according to my own opinion.
They are consumers. And because they lack the capability of producing oil, they tried to make war with the places where its abundant.
US supplying EU is a no go. I doubt it will happen. Even if US will make a promise to do so, EU will not believe it as it will also have a big expense for the pipelines.
It's not that I am a pro Russia but it's not just going to happen for Russia had colonized them in terms of oil supply.

In addition to licensing in drilling in the US, there are also problems with the level of demand, which of course the US has not been able to provide guarantees to the EU in the long term. As a producer, it is clear the US does not want to lose some of its main revenue. Even when Russia aggressively stops into the territory it deems to be non-allies, it only benefits Asian countries like China by getting cheap prices. The European Union is still dependent on Russia and is slowly easing its sanctions.

I am sure USA would love to be the energy supplier of Europe, but I don't think this a stable and long term solution for our energy crisis. There are several issues which will have strong political impacts in the future. First of all, fracking is not allowed in Europe because it's too harmful for the environment. As long as fracking is banned in Europe it seems very risky to import gas that comes from America. Right now everything is accepted because of the crisis and the Russia Ukraine war. But once things normalise there will be a stronger political opposition. Another issue is that Russian energy is so much cheaper than the one from USA. If Europe will stop buying all the energy from Russia than other countries will buy that cheap energy. This will hurt European companies who are already struggling with the high inflation. Once worker are being laid off the political pressure will rise again. I don't think USA will be the long term trade partner for energy with Europe.

IMO they want to stop drilling all together and force big corporations to switch to green energy. There is no need to create a nationalizing of drilling. Granted, I have no idea of the actual reason Biden chose to halt new drilling leases at a time when Americans are facing record high fuel prices and when there's a global energy shortage, but I suppose that the green energy fanatics were able to sway him into siding with the environmentalist oppose to the working people.

If the U.S. could get away with nationalizing oil production, I suppose they would do so by weaponizing federal leasing permits, but my understanding of their oil drilling situation is that most drilling occurs on private lands. Perhaps could also reduce subsidies for oil and gas too.

The US will be happy supplying Europe but it is more expensive than Russian oil and gas. It will be shipped across the Atlantic Ocean whereas Russian oil and gas have their own pipelines already connected to various countries in Europe. Europe will have no other choice but to accept US exports but it will be limited to short-term only as negotiations are ongoing in nearby oil and gas countries like the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asian nations to build pipelines.

Taiwan is another issue but it will be bigger and might cause a world war. I am not sure if China is blockading it or if it is allowing trade routes to happen. Taiwan is another highly industrialized country needing a lot of energy and a blockade by China will put the US in a very tough and dangerous situation.

There's a plethora of reasons why this shift wouldn't be so easy for the Europeans, much more the USA. The US is a country hugely dependent on oil, and even if they can produce what they needed and keep some of it on reserves, they still can't supply the demand of oil in EU. Most probably, these European countries would still be buying from the Russians as things ease out on the war. They'd just hide it under the rug and pretend that things didn't happen because they need that oil more than anything else in the world.

Can I give you a peak into the crystal ball... to show you what is going to happen in the future?

1. The war between Russia and the Ukraine is going to end soon. (over time the EU is going to forget about this)
2. The EU will start to invest more into renewable energy alternatives. (Reducing their need to rely on Russian oil)
3. The Russians will find other countries to buy their oil. (Example : India and more African countries)

So in conclusion.... Russia will still sell the same amount of oil to other countries and the EU will still buy from them after the war, because their alternative solutions will take time to replace their need for oil. 

The situation with oil in the world is quite interesting, I will try to formulate my understanding, trying not to go far beyond the boundaries of my own competence.
1. There is quite a lot of oil in the world, but it becomes more and more difficult to extract it over time. The debit of operating wells is decreasing, the percentage of water cut of produced oil is increasing, it is difficult, long and expensive to explore new fields and drill new wells. The cost of produced oil is gradually increasing - and this is a global trend.
2. Oil is different. The Brent and Ural oil grades are widely heard, but I think few people know that the Ural oil grade is not produced in the Urals (although this would be quite logical), but is obtained by mixing in a certain proportion light low-sulfur West Siberian oil and heavy high-sulfur oil from Volga region. Different refineries in the world are designed for different grades of oil and you can't just change them to another grade of oil without a dramatic loss in productivity. Moreover, from a mixture of different grades of oil, different refineries make different end products - such as gasoline, aviation kerosene, ship fuel for tankers and bulk carriers, diesel fuel, plastics, etc. And for this reason, for example, the United States, which produces the most oil in the world, still cannot refuse oil supplies from Russia, because for some types of end products it is necessary to add a certain amount of heavy oil to the input of oil refineries, which even in the current situation is easier buy everything from Russia (and this is the reason why Biden recently had to conduct humiliating negotiations for the United States in Venezuela and Saudi Arabia).

In short, it is incorrect to talk about oil in terms of the number of barrels only.

Russia has long since turned its oil export market to Asia and no longer considers Europe as its important partner, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia to become the second largest oil supplier in India. It will hurt more for the EU if the EU completely cuts off oil supplies from Russia and it will increasingly rely on the grace of the US, more dependent on the US. This is what the US really wants.

Having no pipeline going straight to EU from US will be costly as a supplier. It make sense for EU to look further down or make a deal with Russia. AFAIK they have already considered lifting sanctions to Russia because it all backfires to them.

There is the need to weigh the result of what they have done to what they shouldn't have done. The quest to find a solution has very limited time, whichever the season is they would need gas.

I feel that you've left whole Arabia out of equation.

While the Arabs are extracting big time (they do need the money for developing), US tends to keep reserves, as you said, for generations. Keep in mind that it's not only cars, trucks, ships, planes need oil. Keep in mind that your clothes also contain a fair share of oil-based products, and it's just an example. US will keep its industries going for long.

So I don't think that US will become "the only supplier of oil for EU". At least not for long.

As far as I know, the barrels of oil that the United States has strategically stored belong to China. And with the control by economic sanctions, I see that both the US and the EU have gradually failed to control Russia, proof that it is still strong and resilient after sanctions and strong retaliation, causing the other side's economy to be weaker.

Unless we figure out a way to get a pipeline from America to Europe, which seems like a rather impossible undertaking to do safely, then it will never be able to replace the sheer convenience of Russian oil. It means that any oil or gas that is coming from America has to be shipped via boat and it can only hold a fraction of the capacity. It seems like taking oil and gas from Africa via pipelines, or even trying to figure out a pipeline through to producers in the middle east would be the next best option. For now it seems like Europe has to settle on a lot more shipping and it seems best to try to convert everything over to renewable energy as quick as possible.

Russians already are prepared to shut down Nord stream 1 pipeline and as the heat of the sanctions keep heating on the Russians
they are aware their oil and gas supply to the Europe will remain indispensable  and if they cut off supplies as well it will weaken the entire industrial production and cause a hike in commodity prices. This standing as the Russians defence mechanism against the sanctions since they have other supply channels.

I think it will take a long while to build a channel from Europe to the US or any other alternate source and definitely depreciate the EURO. But Europe has to face it once and for all take up what ever regulations the US might offer to save their economy on the long run

As long as we don't make fools of ourselves, as in this other case, I'm fine with it:

LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union.


What I think we also have to do, as I have said in other threads, is to increase our energy production so that we are not so dependent on third countries. In that sense, increasing energy production from renewables is fine, but it does not solve our problems. We will have to increase nuclear capacity for sure.

In fact, the dependence on oil, on Russian oil, is not critical for the EU: "The export of oil and oil products from Russia to Europe in January 2022 amounted to just over 4 million barrels per day (b / d), but by May it fell to about 3 million b/d, due to voluntary failures of companies and decisions of individual governments." https://meduza.io/cards/evropa-otkazhetsya-ot-90-nefti-kotoruyu-pokupaet-v-rossii-s-rossiyskoy-ekonomikoy-mozhno-poproschatsya

Given that Saudi Arabia is increasing production by almost 3 million barrels per day. True, not immediately, but within 2 years, starting with +1 million barrels "already today." The US is increasing shale oil production. also over 1 million barrels per day. With a high probability, oil from other supplying countries will also enter the market. All this will quite quickly FULLY cut off the entire volume of oil supplies from a terrorist country (including an economic terrorist), including even pipelines.
No need to escalate the situation, where there are no problems

It was said the US halted the companies to drill oil because they wanted to nationalize oil drilling and not about green energy. Sounds like a very conspiracy theory but they risked the economy when they stopped these companies from extracting oil. So how can they provide to EU if they have stopped drilling?  But I think EU had already source to come from Nigeria.

Never, not under democratic administrations. It's now explicitly part of their platforms to be anti-energy. If a pro-oil and gas President came into office, they wouldn't produce enough oil to be a sole supplier, but they could increase global supply enough to ease restraints if they were compelled to. Current administration in the U.S. has no intentions on exporting energy. They would rather spend trillions in green climate change initiatives and see Europe beholden to the Russians.

I don't think the US alone could do that. The US can't probably make up for what Russia supplies to the entire EU should EU decide to completely cut oil dependence from Russia. But the US has some allies that will probably come together to support EU's demand if asked to. After all, it's not only Russia that is rich in oil. But, in truth, I doubt if EU will totally cut off Russia's oil supply in the region. Not only is its effect more or less impossible to bear, some EU countries will probably not agree.