Topic: [CHALLENGE] Who wants to be a millionaire ? - page 3. (Read 790 times)

WON

Bank: 107,10 Euro
W-L: 3-0
Average odds: 1,02

#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair

Over 0,5 is always a bit tricky, sometimes even the most overish games on paper finish 0-0 out of the blue. Dordrecht is conceding a lot this season and Graafschap is huge favourite for this match sitting only at around 1,30ish. Graafschap’s last home match already finished with a scoreless draw, so I hope this rather unusual scoreline for NED2 in general won’t happen two times in a row in the same stadium.

I agree with op that it will be more emotional and difficult once the amount reaches to 5 digits (maybe even 4). I tried this many many times playing dice and some other casino games and I didn't have much success. I haven't tried this on sportsbooks. The lowest odds I remembered was betting $400 @1.05 once. I was too confident to win so I made the risk. I won but didn't do it again.

I am not paying attention on very low odds in sportsbooks. I felt it is too risky with immaterial rewards. But because this caught my attention, I tried looking for very low odds.

Manchester City at home, corner 1x2 @1.02 against Aston Villa. I doubt Manchester City can repeat this four hundred times but we're not talking about the same sports and matches though.

Unified boxing champion Katie Taylor @1.03 vs Christina Linardatou. Actually Linardatou's record is 12 wins, only 1 defeat (by decision) and with 6 knckouts. In boxing, a single punch can change the game. I'm scared doing this a hundred times.
         

Bets for low odds and only bets for the sports which you have much knowledge to do so i think this is safe bets although there is no 100% guarantee safe but at least the percentages will more than 90% to won for each bets but i think you have to calculated external factors that because this is gambling so sometimes bets low odds also possibly will loss and the worst part of this strategy is although you won the bets more than 20 times but if you lost at least once time then it will eat all of you initial money

That's a great challenge you do, but I won't be doing that, 100 euro for experiment is such a good amount to me already.
Also, you are like doing a martingale here that you go all in every time and that you need to bet 465 times with consecutive win to make you a millionaire, that's not viable for me actually.

You already won 2 times, good luck for the next 463 bets, hope you win it all. 

Good post @kworrom


My bold statement is, that a 1,05 in lets say Handball is way more likely to win than a 1,05 in football. The more room for error there is, the better. In Football one mistake can be crucial, in Handball not so much - you concede a goal because of some mistake, but it doesn't have that much impact, because there is around 50-60 goals scored. Even more so in a sport like Volleyball. You can go on a mental walkabout for a long period of time, but you might still find yourself only down a set. It doesn't matter, if you lose the set 0-25, 10-25 or 23-25, it's still only 0-1 in sets, there is no extra point in beating the shit out of your opponent in one set.

In women sports there is just huge differences regarding fitness, professionalism, mental aspects and whatever. If you take a look at EPL, every player is super fit, they are well coached, take care of their diet etc. The players from the smaller teams are just simply not that talented like players from Liverpool, ManCity, Tottenham. Now in the Womens Premier League on top to not being as talented, the girls from the smaller teams additionally are not as fit, well coached etc. as the girls from the top teams, so the quality gap is much bigger.

In non-mainstream women sports the gaps get even more big and the lower you go, the worse it gets.


Good read, though I have never been into horse racing. The process of setting the odds by starting with the favourites and well known participants and go on from there is the way to go of course. I was following and betting cycling for 15+ years until most of the value had gone due to only one (knowledgeable) bookmaker making their own odds and the rest just copying them. There is 160+ riders in any given cycling race, so could I tell the winning percentage of some scrub from a middle of the pack team ? No. Could I make rather good price predictions for the favourites ? Yes. Now from what I observed, in horse racing there is no such longshots as in cycling. In cycling you see riders priced 100+ all the time. If you have some good reason and/or information to play such longshot, it's not THAT important, if you get @400 or @450. There is a difference, if you get @5 or @6 for a favourite of course (talking longterm here).

In the end it all comes down to value. Depending on your betting style and your mindset, each person has decide for themself what suits him best. I am more of an underdog bettor with my normal bets, without playing too insane odds. A friend of mine thinks that even @10 is kind of low But he has long droughts of losing bet after bet of course, which can wear you down mentally and this should be taken into consideration as well. In betting a lot of ways work, but in the end you can't win longterm without being able to spot valuable odds, be it 1,01 or 10,0.

Seen up your profile which you do have currently 5 picks for today.I would suggest that you should better make your own thread but well in general sense
1.01-1.05 is just on the same spot. 75 matches win steak isnt still that assured but since these are type of experiments then either of these 2 test out
can prove out something.The difference of your system to op is that having multiple bets.

You also have to respect that I have my own opinion and I can say what I think about his strategy.
If you like it so much ...then you can join him please, I would like to see that...

In the spirit of your challenge--as an experiment I indiscriminately added ~75 matches that were around 1.05 odds or below that start within the next week. They should all win.  Let's see what happens! https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/ Will update with the result here.

There seems to be a few common themes in these 1.01-1.05 favorites. Lots of women's sports. Lots of teams who have an economic advantage, a disproportionate amount of money to spend compared to others in their domestic league (for example Real Madrid and Barcelona playing in the Liga ACB). Lots of national competitions where I guess certain countries also have an economic advantage or cultural advantage in developing their program over others.

Also, it's interesting how odds for many of these events seem to be offered only by sportsbooks with seemingly bad reputations... it makes you wonder if they would even honor an underdog upset or call bad odds. If you believe in the favorite-longshot bias idea (https://www.sbo.net/horse-racing/favourite-longshot-bias/) then the odds on backing these underdogs should pay out much worse than the favorites in the long haul.


----update 10/27/19----
Across 100 random bets on favorites around 1.05 odds (https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/) even though it's a tiny sample, there was a smaller loss betting on heavy favorites than heavy underdogs. The underdogs appear to pay less than they're worth. They have a lower chance to win than their odds imply. Blame the sportsbook... the dog's odds are a ripoff.

Also, there's more variance depending on staking strategy. It was more likely to lose your entire bank when using a continuation betting strategy compared to a fixed bet amount strategy. If someone is trying this for fun (with the intention of not losing), it's worth a reminder that it's probably a bad idea to go all in. There were 6 continuation bet sequences, the shortest bet continuation sequence was 0 (unlucky man), and the longest was 32 (+284% gain) before losing.

Based on this silliness, I'd ultimately call this challenge a success if you...
(1) eventually leave with any profit
(2) are able progress further than 32 consecutive bets

This won't go even for the 50th bet. Better Op needs to check with a small amount to know the risk he has scheduled in front of him. Even when we go with the increased winning probability we aren't assured with the win. This way I find it really a hard thing to achieve. Playing on different gambling sites I find no gambling site gives way for such a win on consecutive bets. Even yesterday I lost all the campaign payments on Windice which is unexpected, and it happens which is why it is termed gambling is risky.

You have to respect other people's strategies, and it's about betting in gambling that depends on their strategy to get good luck.
those who bet on all types of online gambling are already based on prior knowledge to make strategies before betting and hope that the planned strategy will be profitable.

I did understand what he wants to do do, and I said I doubt that he can bet that high amount.

@tyKiwanuka
Good luck anyway.

Is there any specific bookie you are using?

Already looking forward to the shit-storm after losing the first bet

Most people didn't even bother to read the opening post and/or just unloaded their signature campaign garbage posts, so I won't bother engaging in a discussion with them.


Of course it is, I am aware of that and thats why this is just for fun.


I would be surprised, if I even get to 50


I know all this, I've seen it all. In my long betting career I have lost the most safe 1,01 bets and won insane gambles on 100+ odds. But till now I haven't had a losing year.


Most likely there is not much value in the odds I am playing, but this is not what it is about in the end. It's about picking winners, so I am not looking for valuable odds in first place opposed to what I do with my "normal" betting, which is not public. Feel free to open any kind of your own challenge - 1 million to 2 million or whatever - and I will curiously follow.

So I wish everyone a happy following and hope you enjoy seeing me failing, which will happen 99,999999999999%

Honestly that amount is very high for every bet " 100 euro ". and its very risky mate in my own opinion because you know every results in gambling are very unpredictable . And it can cause regrets afterwards.  If i were you,  if you just want to try you luck.  Then go first with a small amount.   Because its very unacceptable especially you lost that kind of amount suddenly, wherein just like a blink of an eye.  Well unless if you want to try that amount  just for fun.  Lol

This challenge is too hard and will only lead to frustration. The problem is with your staking strategy. Simply it is too greedy. If you go all in every time you will eventually lose. Why not instead try to risk 2% (or less) of your bank per bet? Give yourself a chance to be wrong and still work towards your million euro profit goal. It's cruel to expect yourself to be perfect even if you are not actually risking anything. I bet you will not get past 100 wagers made. Prove me wrong.

Just because the market price on a sporting event is 1.02 doesn't mean that it literally has a 98% chance of happening like in a dice game with no house edge. There are so many unknowns. The odds can be skewed due to heavy bets on only one side. A player can get injured or have a hidden injury going into the match that gets aggravated. A player's equipment can fail catastrophically. The weather can randomly affect the outcome. A referee can make a wrong call. A coach can decide to rest impact players before or during the match due to looking ahead in schedule. Players can under perform, over perform, and get straight up lucky. What this challenge will remind you is that historical results don't guarantee future results, and the market can post odds that are quite off (so don't trust what the market says automatically, come with your own odds and then compare to the market). Crazy stuff happens.

What I would like to see you do is come up with and share your own odds for these 1.01-1.05 bets. Share how much value is in these in your opinion. Should that 1.02 be 1.01? 1.005? 1.0001? What goes into your probability assessment? It would make it more interesting if you were actually placing these bets, risking real money or BTC, and how this would affect your decision making. It would also be more interesting if you instead started with 1 million euros and attempted to use this strategy to reach 2 million euros (with the sportsbook or exchange betting limits in place). Internally, somewhat, you might already sense that this strategy is a dead end since you aren't risking anything, and this is a smart choice. In any case, good luck!

When you do able to read up the word "Challenge" then it simply tells that op is trying to reach up some goal.
Big amount or not for other people but he do like to bet on low odds or simply high chance of winning.
As i can see above he do bet up 100 euro each time he do see some line. 2 times in a row is normal and im wondering on how many
games he would able to bust up that 100 euro of his.

WON

Bank: 103,98 Euro
W-L: 2-0
Average odds: 1,02

#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt

H2H from the last years 8-0, 250-147 goals, always won with at least 10+, handicap for tomorrow is around that mark too.

Placing 100 euro every day is too risky, especially for me. It's not about the odds or anything, but it's about the money you have to place the bets. If you have a lot of money, then 100 euro will not be a problem. But I believe 100 euro will be worth for other people and I don't think that they will risk 100 euro every day to gamble. Perhaps, if the money is not too big as the OP says, I think people will place the bet, but they will not do that every day. I could only say good luck to you OP, hope you can win every day.

its not a time waster because you only need to place a bet and then leave it for some time , you can only comeback to check if you win or loose  .  its also possible to bet higher amounts on some online betting sites   .

 you can get loose on low odds but what about on higher odds ? no difference for me at all  . you can loose or win no matter what bets/odds your using  but who wouldnt want to become a millionaire ?  maybe this strat of the op is the key to achieve that

He started this to test the strategy exactly as he wants to bring it to life and now just tests his luck. Apparently you did not understand the point, it is to risk a small amount of money and get a good win after a lot of rounds.

I think you are wasting your time with this kind of bets,  and you cant bet with this high amount online.
Also odds are very low, and they can be lost also