Fail.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/sec-rejects-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/
Topic: Charts: How an ETF Approval Could Impact Bitcoin's Price (Read 1554 times)
because there are lots of institutional investors who are - by law - only allowed to invest in exchange traded assets. On top of this especially those investors happen to be very big investors with billions to invest. They cannot buy physical gold but they can buy gold etf. same with bitcoin: they cannot buy bitcoins directly - it is against the law.
Not to mention, any inflows of fiat directly into Bitcoin ETFs will go only to buying and selling of bitcoin (e.g. that investment/trade money would not be allowed to flow into BTC/altcoin pair trades). So in theory, Bitcoin marketcap would pull away from other altcoins.
because there are lots of institutional investors who are - by law - only allowed to invest in exchange traded assets. On top of this especially those investors happen to be very big investors with billions to invest. They cannot buy physical gold but they can buy gold etf. same with bitcoin: they cannot buy bitcoins directly - it is against the law.
Not to mention, any inflows of fiat directly into Bitcoin ETFs will go only to buying and selling of bitcoin (e.g. that investment/trade money would not be allowed to flow into BTC/altcoin pair trades). So in theory, Bitcoin marketcap would pull away from other altcoins.
I really can't see the ETF happening. Just my opinion and can't really back this up with anything.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
This.
And the fact it is taking so long suggests.... a problem.
If it were a hot commodity, it would have come out already.
The whole ETF smells of BS - why not just buy Bitcoin, cut the middleman out?
JMHO
because there are lots of institutional investors who are - by law - only allowed to invest in exchange traded assets. On top of this especially those investors happen to be very big investors with billions to invest. They cannot buy physical gold but they can buy gold etf. same with bitcoin: they cannot buy bitcoins directly - it is against the law.
I really can't see the ETF happening. Just my opinion and can't really back this up with anything.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
This.
And the fact it is taking so long suggests.... a problem.
If it were a hot commodity, it would have come out already.
The whole ETF smells of BS - why not just buy Bitcoin, cut the middleman out?
JMHO
Turns out that the Winklevoss ETF is not the only one trying to get approval:
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/01/20/another-bid-for-a-bitcoin-etf/
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/01/20/another-bid-for-a-bitcoin-etf/
Quote
The race to launch a bitcoin exchange-traded fund for retail investors became a three-way competition.
According to Paul Vigna at The Wall Street Journal, Grayscale Investments, a firm run by technology entrepreneur Barry Silbert, filed with the SEC to list its Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) on the New York Stock Exchange.
Grayscale joins two other groups seeking approval for their bitcoin ETFs. Winklevoss Capital, the firm operated by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is awaiting an SEC decision on its filing, which is expected by March. SolidX is also seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, which also would be listed on the NYSE.
As the newspaper reports:
The move by Grayscale Investments, a unit of Mr. Silbert’s Digital Currency Group, could expand the audience for the fledgling virtual currency if the fund is approved by the SEC. It also could prove an early test for how an SEC run by a Donald Trump appointee will greet innovations that may raise investor protection or other market-structure issues.
…The benefits of being first on a major exchange could be big, assuming that bitcoin does manage to establish itself as a viable asset class. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF launched in Nov. 18, 2004, and has $31 billion in assets. The iShares Gold Trust ETF launched on Jan. 21, 2005, and has $7.7 billion in assets. Gold, a commodity not backed by any particular government, appeals to investors for some of the same reasons that bitcoin does.
According to Paul Vigna at The Wall Street Journal, Grayscale Investments, a firm run by technology entrepreneur Barry Silbert, filed with the SEC to list its Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) on the New York Stock Exchange.
Grayscale joins two other groups seeking approval for their bitcoin ETFs. Winklevoss Capital, the firm operated by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is awaiting an SEC decision on its filing, which is expected by March. SolidX is also seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, which also would be listed on the NYSE.
As the newspaper reports:
The move by Grayscale Investments, a unit of Mr. Silbert’s Digital Currency Group, could expand the audience for the fledgling virtual currency if the fund is approved by the SEC. It also could prove an early test for how an SEC run by a Donald Trump appointee will greet innovations that may raise investor protection or other market-structure issues.
…The benefits of being first on a major exchange could be big, assuming that bitcoin does manage to establish itself as a viable asset class. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF launched in Nov. 18, 2004, and has $31 billion in assets. The iShares Gold Trust ETF launched on Jan. 21, 2005, and has $7.7 billion in assets. Gold, a commodity not backed by any particular government, appeals to investors for some of the same reasons that bitcoin does.
Nice calculations, I just realize that it needs $400k to rise the price $20, if Bitcoin ETF get approval, we know what will happen when $300 million to enter the market.
Many investors may come and join in bitcoin investment, to store their wealth, but we know that ETF approval probabilities may less than 33% or 25%, so I do not expect it's going to be happen.
actually, chances for ETF approval doubled from 20% to 41.3% in the last six days:
https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/COIN_BH17
looks like NE Patriots surge, I hope
$300million added to the current value would be a small single digit increase. But the price will go much higher, more like 30% then there will be a huge correction. This is only assuming the ETF takes off of course.
$300Mn inflow into bitcoin won't result in a $300Mn increase in market cap/value.
When an ETF decides to buy $300Mn worth of bitcoins, due to lack of adequate market depth, the price could shoot up. This would result in the market cap going up by billions of dollars.
you both got it wrong.
if $300 million buy bitcoin within a few days it would raise the price way more than single digit. currently it needs $400k to raise the price $20 on bitstamp. multiply that by 10 for the ten biggest exchanges (=$4 mio) and the price would rise $20 on 10 biggest exchanges.
$40 mio injection would equal a $200 rise
$400 mio injection would equal a $2000 rise.
after a $2000 rise btc would be at a $3000 level. if one btc is traded at $3000 the current market cap would equal approx. 48 billion.
that is only considering the ten biggest exchanges. i am not sure how many exchanges are needed to really raise the price. my guess is that they would just follow.
Many investors may come and join in bitcoin investment, to store their wealth, but we know that ETF approval probabilities may less than 33% or 25%, so I do not expect it's going to be happen.
I really can't see the ETF happening. Just my opinion and can't really back this up with anything.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
I also think bitcoin EFT fund has very small chance to be approved and will be correct.USA is not enough open for changes,that kind of fund may find support in Swizerland, country what is very much open for bitcoin
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-etf-approval-impact-bitcoins-price/
There is a lot more in this article - I highly recommend people click and read it
Quote
This infographic of bitcoin's price is something I've been pondering today
~snipped~
~snipped~
There is a lot more in this article - I highly recommend people click and read it
This is a conspicuous example of wishful thinking (aka motivational bias)
While I certainly agree that the price spike in June 2016 was due to the halving hype and hysteria, the recent price surge has most certainly nothing to do with ETF approval expectations. The latter is no more than the article author's wishful thinking. As to me, this price growth is actually caused by the halving itself taking effect, which can be seen by the change in the angle of slope (though it is likely no more than an optical illusion too), as well as heavy price manipulation by the Chinese (or whatever) manipulors
$300million added to the current value would be a small single digit increase. But the price will go much higher, more like 30% then there will be a huge correction. This is only assuming the ETF takes off of course.
$300Mn inflow into bitcoin won't result in a $300Mn increase in market cap/value.
When an ETF decides to buy $300Mn worth of bitcoins, due to lack of adequate market depth, the price could shoot up. This would result in the market cap going up by billions of dollars.
you both got it wrong.
if $300 million buy bitcoin within a few days it would raise the price way more than single digit. currently it needs $400k to raise the price $20 on bitstamp. multiply that by 10 for the ten biggest exchanges (=$4 mio) and the price would rise $20 on 10 biggest exchanges.
$40 mio injection would equal a $200 rise
$400 mio injection would equal a $2000 rise.
after a $2000 rise btc would be at a $3000 level. if one btc is traded at $3000 the current market cap would equal approx. 48 billion.
that is only considering the ten biggest exchanges. i am not sure how many exchanges are needed to really raise the price. my guess is that they would just follow.
This made me laugh reading it.
I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.
Quote
Current market speculation
Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.
Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.
I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.
Very true. In some ways, the ETF might expose Bitcoin's problems to the mainstream media and cause irreparable harm.
I do not think it will cause irreparable harm but Bitcoin ETF investors will be very disappointed. They will have a reality check and find out the flaws in BTC.
The motivation behind this is clearly greed. There are still a lot of people from the finance sector that think riding the Bitcoin bandwagon is still profitable.
Here is another article about the ETF:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/02/10/after-bitcoin-dropped-10-how-likely-is-an-etf-now/
They think the events in China (removing margin lending, enforcing fee trading, insisting on KYCs and AML compliance) are marginally positive for the ETF.
Potential hardfork in bitcoin to deal with block size is negative
And Trump administration priorities are negative for the ETF.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/02/10/after-bitcoin-dropped-10-how-likely-is-an-etf-now/
They think the events in China (removing margin lending, enforcing fee trading, insisting on KYCs and AML compliance) are marginally positive for the ETF.
Potential hardfork in bitcoin to deal with block size is negative
And Trump administration priorities are negative for the ETF.
The conspiracy theorist seem to think the SEC is stalling this on purpose, because they want to give the Fiat financial system a last life line, to
see if they can come out of this deep hole they have dug for themselves. Did the SEC stop the reckless banking practices in the past? Nope.. they
did not, and everything nearly collapsed.... but the governments came in with the massive bailouts and they survived. They will support corrupt
banking systems... and Bitcoin will have to take the back seat.
see if they can come out of this deep hole they have dug for themselves. Did the SEC stop the reckless banking practices in the past? Nope.. they
did not, and everything nearly collapsed.... but the governments came in with the massive bailouts and they survived. They will support corrupt
banking systems... and Bitcoin will have to take the back seat.
I think maybe ETC ETF will come first
A ethereum etf? Now that hasn't been mentioned as of yet. But that might be a viable option for those not to sure about how the ETF for bitcoin might unfold and those that are on the fence about it.I am not a holder of it yet but might consider doing so if this ETF was available before the announcement because official for the bitcoin one first.
$300million added to the current value would be a small single digit increase. But the price will go much higher, more like 30% then there will be a huge correction. This is only assuming the ETF takes off of course.
$300Mn inflow into bitcoin won't result in a $300Mn increase in market cap/value.
When an ETF decides to buy $300Mn worth of bitcoins, due to lack of adequate market depth, the price could shoot up. This would result in the market cap going up by billions of dollars.
i seriously doubt the $300mil will be injected in one day and on exchanges into bitcoin! that is a stupid move and causes them to be forced to buy high priced bitcoin.
any wise person would inject it slowly and through different channels that doesn't even affect the flow of things on exchanges and price wouldn't feel it.
but rising because of the news and also because of the ETF itself in the long term is another story.
$300million added to the current value would be a small single digit increase. But the price will go much higher, more like 30% then there will be a huge correction. This is only assuming the ETF takes off of course.
$300Mn inflow into bitcoin won't result in a $300Mn increase in market cap/value.
When an ETF decides to buy $300Mn worth of bitcoins, due to lack of adequate market depth, the price could shoot up. This would result in the market cap going up by billions of dollars.
I really can't see the ETF happening. Just my opinion and can't really back this up with anything.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
It just doesn't seem like the right time. I'm usually bullish but I expect a large drop come March the 11th when everyone realises it's not happening.
Too much hype on this.
Edit.
Winkle lawyer says ETF unlikely. Well that says it all to me.
I hope I am wrong.
the amount it is predicting price will rise because of possible ETF approval is too small in my opinion. at this point the approval can potentially be one of those big good news that creates a huge hype and then leads to a rally.
It maybe completely dependent on how much investments etf is going to attract. But those figures will be possible only after the approval of etf. But usually market will react based on the potential of one news/event. Hence etf may bring unlimited investments into bitcoins so I guess we cannot speculate the future prices that much accurate. 
the amount it is predicting price will rise because of possible ETF approval is too small in my opinion. at this point the approval can potentially be one of those big good news that creates a huge hype and then leads to a rally.
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