Topic: Charts: How an ETF Approval Could Impact Bitcoin's Price - page 2. (Read 1554 times)
$300million added to the current value would be a small single digit increase. But the price will go much higher, more like 30% then there will be a huge correction. This is only assuming the ETF takes off of course.
I think maybe ETC ETF will come first
This made me laugh reading it.
I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.
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Current market speculation
Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.
Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.
I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.
Very true. In some ways, the ETF might expose Bitcoin's problems to the mainstream media and cause irreparable harm.
This made me laugh reading it.
I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.
Quote
Current market speculation
Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.
Needham and Company published a report early this year estimating that an ETF approval was likely below 25%. However, at the time of writing, the newly released BitMex EFT prediction market is expecting a 33% chance. We've seen speculative bitcoin pricing in the range of $1,050-$1,150 and success probabilities of 25% to 33%, figures that are in line with a $500m-$1bn capital injection from ETFs. In such a scenario, we would see bitcoin's market cap swell to $20bn-28bn.
I hope and wish Needham and Company really know what they are talking about and getting into. They should visit this forum more and see what is really happening with Bitcoin. We had spammers attacking the network causing more than 50,000 unconfirmed transactions twice this week and more the past few weeks. We have scalability problems and more problems on how to solve it. We have an experimental payment system with Bitcoin but the people outside of it treats it like digital gold. So amusing.
The interesting number of this article for this sub-forum 
is that the author predicts a $190 price increase if there are $300 million (as expected by some experts) flowing into Bitcoin because of the ETF.
I think that $1090 could well be the "end price" after the resulting speculative bubble and the following correction. But if the ETF gets approved I think the Bitcoin price will skyrocket at least to $1400-500, possibly even $2000, because of the euphoria it would cause in the Bitcoin community. We've had bubbles with much, much weaker fundamental reasons (e.g. the 2013 "Cyprus" bubble) and much higher tops.
And people would forget for a moment the actual fundamental problems Bitcoin has (transaction capacity). These could cause a hard crash when shorters see an opportunity in launching a spam attack to the blockchain with possibly up to a mempool of 1 million unconfirmed transactions.
is that the author predicts a $190 price increase if there are $300 million (as expected by some experts) flowing into Bitcoin because of the ETF.I think that $1090 could well be the "end price" after the resulting speculative bubble and the following correction. But if the ETF gets approved I think the Bitcoin price will skyrocket at least to $1400-500, possibly even $2000, because of the euphoria it would cause in the Bitcoin community. We've had bubbles with much, much weaker fundamental reasons (e.g. the 2013 "Cyprus" bubble) and much higher tops.
And people would forget for a moment the actual fundamental problems Bitcoin has (transaction capacity). These could cause a hard crash when shorters see an opportunity in launching a spam attack to the blockchain with possibly up to a mempool of 1 million unconfirmed transactions.
http://www.coindesk.com/charts-etf-approval-impact-bitcoins-price/
There is a lot more in this article - I highly recommend people click and read it.
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This infographic of bitcoin's price is something I've been pondering today.
It tells bitcoin's often dramatic price story in fundamental trend lines that abstract away some serious doses of speculative activity.
There's a lot in this chart, so lets break it down:
In late 2015 through to May 2016, we saw a three cats and a moon consolidation pattern play out over six months after a multi-level marketing (MMM) pyramid scheme took bitcoin price action through some exciting times.
By early June 2016, we saw a speculative bubble (marked in green above) as the market sought to price in the upcoming block reward halving event. This was to be the second halving event, slashing payout and therefore the supply of new bitcoins from 25 BTC every 10 minutes to… well, exactly half to 12.5 BTC.
Leading up to this, many people were afraid miners would exit (taking their protective hashing power with them), and that the block processing would slow and the price could crash. This did not happen. What happened was simply that the markets saw less sell-side pressure from miners who had fewer newly minted coins to sell. (The blue trend shows the steeper rate of price appreciation this had on the markets.)
Finally, what we may be seeing from Q4 2016 to present is the market undergoing a much larger and longer speculative phase for the upcoming bitcoin ETF decision. If approved, hundreds of millions at a minimum are expected to be poured into bitcoin. Understandably, the blue-shaded area in our infographic would then be drawn out.
It tells bitcoin's often dramatic price story in fundamental trend lines that abstract away some serious doses of speculative activity.
There's a lot in this chart, so lets break it down:
In late 2015 through to May 2016, we saw a three cats and a moon consolidation pattern play out over six months after a multi-level marketing (MMM) pyramid scheme took bitcoin price action through some exciting times.
By early June 2016, we saw a speculative bubble (marked in green above) as the market sought to price in the upcoming block reward halving event. This was to be the second halving event, slashing payout and therefore the supply of new bitcoins from 25 BTC every 10 minutes to… well, exactly half to 12.5 BTC.
Leading up to this, many people were afraid miners would exit (taking their protective hashing power with them), and that the block processing would slow and the price could crash. This did not happen. What happened was simply that the markets saw less sell-side pressure from miners who had fewer newly minted coins to sell. (The blue trend shows the steeper rate of price appreciation this had on the markets.)
Finally, what we may be seeing from Q4 2016 to present is the market undergoing a much larger and longer speculative phase for the upcoming bitcoin ETF decision. If approved, hundreds of millions at a minimum are expected to be poured into bitcoin. Understandably, the blue-shaded area in our infographic would then be drawn out.
There is a lot more in this article - I highly recommend people click and read it.
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