Topic: Chill guys! - page 3. (Read 18605 times)

haha so true

Hi Satoshi,

you wouldn't sell 100k BTC just to win a bet, would you?

Okay, to be clear - its Friday 04:56am UTC - Mt.Gox Last: 14.72

Larry was smart enough to say ON Friday and not BY Friday so indeed he has a few more hours. Not for nothing but I think UTC should be our measure of the day. Especially since references to EST keep being made and it won't be EST until November.

Just as a benchmark, 12:04 midnight Friday - Mt.Gox Last: 14.87

Lets give him all day friday, just for laughs.

At the tone, the time will be - 11:33pm EST

Mt.Gox Last: 14.867

*Beep*

I guess you replied to me. I'm not saying the exchange rate needs to invariably reflect the current economy size (though it would be great if it did that), I'm saying it needs to keep within a safe distance to it, or you end up with a bubble that is far more likely to burst and destroy value for everyone. Also, as a counterweight I would pose the extreme risk in using Bitcoin as a store of value right now. The bankster thugs are only slowly waking up to this, when they get going tough times are ahead. That has to depress exchange rate and consequently either you are supremely confident in Bitcoin surviving in its current form so your investment is retained many years from now, or you're a fool. Or a speculator with an exit strategy that in his own words doesn't care what happens to the system itself, as long as he is covered.

Not very consistent on the argumentation though. First I don't know what kind of strategy I'm using, now I don't know what I'm doing because I'm not invested. I guess the only way to win this game is not to play.


And you seriously think I'm 'losing' something because I'm not making a profit where one could be made? You obviously don't know anything about me, maybe you should stop speculating. Heh.


From what I have seen so far you are here for the quick buck and need the price to go as high as quickly as it can for that purpose. Or wildly bounce around at least. None of which helps the Bitcoin economy in the long run.

And you are speculating on how old I am too I guess

@bitcoinBull: you know the exchange rate does not reflect todays relevance but the expected value for time frames of maybe even years. so even if the market is as small as 5 million per year as of now with people speculating on a x15 growth in business within one year anticipating next years real value they are quite conservative with 15$/BTC as this would mean all BTC circulating and not like it is today where the exchanges have trade volumes of 100k/day and 90% being used as a store of value.

Take a look at the Wiki list of companies taking Bitcoin and sum their total estimated turnover. Obviously this is highly imprecise since there is not a lot of information available, most if not all are privately owned etc. but I would not estimate more than a couple of million USD a year. Even that is highly optimistic because most are likely only taking a fraction in BTC right now (e.g. I would wager memorydealers currently loses money on promoting Bitcoin). The list doesn't contain any seriously large company, or even medium sized company that I can see. Tradehill proxying Amazon may be the largest, though I doubt they have had more than a few hundred customers for this so far.

If you take a highly optimistic 5 million USD, then at 7 million BTC the exchange rate should be around 0.7 USD/BTC now, not $15. Since it seems obvious there is a lot of work to be done before Bitcoin can even be technically conscionably accepted
by less than adventurous retailers (like Amazon), it will take that much time for the economy to grow by those numbers. Until then, the speculative ratio is over 20:1. If it goes to $30 again, that's over 40:1. $60? 80:1. How much is not ludicrous?


Neither of which reflect the actual economy size. As long as it's worth it, new miners will join, but they are speculating just as much as traders.


Are you looking at blockexplorer and a known exchange wallet address? Otherwise it could be anything but a cashout. It could be the exchange moving funds between wallets for all we know. If you're looking at the exchange turnover, how do you know it's not just a few traders trading the same balances back and forth? None of this has any correlation with the actual economy, which consists of people paying eachother for goods and services. Couple of years ago everyone thought mortgage derivatives consisted of real value too.


Obviously I completely disagree with this. By this argument the economy has grown incredibly fast over the last couple of weeks and will suddenly stop growing much between the next 2 increases (according to chodpaba's numbers).


Hah, Wall Street is not interested in real numbers, you should know that by now. Some bank got sued by its own shareholders because they paid out almost double the bonuses (4+ billion USD) than they actually made (2-ish billion USD).


Hopefully because the underlying system is more robust. As the real economy around it grows, bubble type activity should subside, but it does need to survive that first. If it fails on that count, Bitcoin will be remembered as a classic ponzi scheme, albeit a brilliant one.

But you won't take a bet on it?

How about this: if BTC drops below $11usd on Mt. Gox anytime on friday EST, I'll send you 2 bitcoins. If it does not drop below $11 during friday, you send me 1 bitcoin.

I'm a man of my word and I'll assume you are too. Care to wager?

Edit: you must respond in the affirmative to this post before Friday for this deal to be valid.

Not higher than when he made this doomsday prediction but well within the channel of normal trading. We've been in the ~14-~15 range for about 3 weeks with occasional spikes up to 17 and down to 11. So, really, an 11 prediction going into the weekend is not really prescient so much as just drawing attention to another good buying opportunity... SOP for weekends.

So the price is currently higher as when lardycake made his first post, and he's still sticking by his reasoning? It'll be really funny when it eventually hits 30 again and he missed out.

Just a little under 8 hours until Friday (UTC). The closest to $11 is bitcoin-central.com's LRUSD trade at $13. Meanwhile mtg and th are >$15 with lows for the day at $14.50.

So Lardycake - just 32 hours to go for your prediction to realize. Anybody want to getting a betting pool going?

Several of the pools got DDoSed or had technical problems this past weekend, including BTCguild (which was almost as large as deepbit beforehand), and people didn't realize it all weekend, so their miners were idling.

Again, you may or may not be right about the market, but get your facts straight about the hashrate.

I've also noticed the weekend opportunities and have taken to selling into the weekend and buying on Sunday.  I think I'm just doing my duty to stabilize the price.  It's worked well so far, to the tune of about a 20% increase in BTC per week for me.  I'm sure it won't last forever though...

Oh and I think it's also important to recognize that $11 on Friday is highly, highly possible if not probable. The trend has been for weekends to be AWESOME buying opportunities. But the long term trend (and I don't mean the 3 week trend - people here have no sense of time) is still up. Play the channels while you can as they can be profitable too.

You're a fool, and you'll be proven to be an idiot come Friday. Ciao asswipe

16.3$