All of the analysis thus far and including my prior post, is myopic and ignores the ecosystem networking effects.
The Chinese will own 10s or 100s of $billions perhaps even $trillions of value stored in BTC. Do you really think the market is not going to respond and try to market something to that huge capital base?
For example, the Chinese could go on vacation abroad and spend their BTC.
Or they could buy and sell abroad over the internet, e.g. such as for their homes abroad or running business virtually abroad. Especially they become wealthy investing in BTC.
Also the anonymous altcoin comes along, they leverage their BTC into that.
China is desperate to grow the consumer share of their economy because as
http://pettis.com has pointed out, their economy will collapse if they don't. Do you really think they will allow all that consumer business to go abroad? No. The wall is coming down. China is transforming.
Etc.....
China can't put the free market use of Bitcoin back in the bag.
and your analysis is wrong this time.
http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2013-12-17/01139011174.shtml#483253-tsina-1-18627-1cf60a7c37a7bc296a2ba7aba0120190http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1t15hy/this_is_much_worse_than_dec_5_conformation_and/3. People's Bank of China banned all the third party payment company doing business related to bitcoin, including bitcoin exchange platforms.
For those who is currently doing, they are required to completely cut off bitcoin related business by the Chinese new year, which is at the end of Jan 2014.
After Dec 5, small merchants or online shop owner could still accept bitcoin as payment and comfortably convert them to rmb through exchange like btcchina. In the future , this is going to be much harder and completely illegal after the Chinese new year. Basically, bitcoin is dead in China for the most part. People can only use it as speculative investment and store of value, but it is going to very hard for them to realize their potential profit legally in the future.
my personal prediction on the future of the btc economy in China made on Dec 9, 2013.
My personal opinion is that China is in not going to have a robust bitcoin economy anywhere in the medium or long term future.
China currently has a $50k USD restrictions on the amount of money its citizens can take out of the country. Bitcoin with its anonymous nature can easily by pass these restrictions. yeah i know there's AML/ KYC rules set up for BTCchina now but i know that if btc becomes a widely circulated "commodity" in exchange for services and goods that it will be easier to launder and hide illicit gains in bitcoin than it would be to hide them yuan.
http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2011/11/11/getting-cash-money-rmb-out-of-china.htmlif citizens in China start using btc as a "commodity" in exchange for services and goods that would threaten the stability of the chinese yuan. it certainly would not raise the value of the yuan. i don't see how the chinese govt would encourage this to happen.
the Chinese banks are banned from offering services/goods in bitcoin. that was NOT a good sign. it certainly wont make it easier to start bitcoin related businesses in china. Baidu/China Telecom's immediate removal of btc as a payment option following the offical govt announcement was NOT a good sign. i don't know how anybody can spin those actions as a positive for bitcoin.
i also don't believe that bitcoin is booming in China because it's citizens believe in it as an alternative currency. I believe the price skyrocketed due to greed and pure speculation. take a look at the 2010 China Garlic Bubble where in a few months the price of garlic rose 40-50x due to pure speculation, price manipulation and hoarding. Sound familiar to bitcoin in China?
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121125739Plenty of redditors have claimed that China would be supportive of btc because it would devalue the US dollar and raise it's own yuan in value for foreign trade. that's highly unlikely since the Yuan is already the #2 most used currency for foreign trade in the world. China is about to start direct trade with the UK in yuan/pounds. the daily global trade in Chinese Yuan is over $120 billion which is 10x the market cap of bitcoin.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-03/yuan-passes-euro-to-be-second-most-used-trade-finance-currency.htmlChina is a quasi-totalitarian regime that has no qualms about crushing any form of rebellion (labour camps for journalists, tiananmen square, human rights violations, highest # of executions in the world). Bitcoin by its very nature is designed to give the power back to its people, its users. China's entire recent history is about controlling it's people.
tldr: bitcoin gives freedom and power to the Chinese citizens, the chinese government is realizes this and will move to prevent China from ever having a robust btc economy where btc will be widely traded for services/goods. Chinese citizens have a history of participating in mass speculative bubbles without caring about the fundamental value.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1sgjxw/post_by_a_chinese_citizen_on_how_the_china_rally/