China reopening was a flop, if we're heading to deflation, what about Bitcoin?

DrBeer

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Quote from: d5000 on July 15, 2023, 07:18:51 PM

I don't speak Russian so I searched for English news articles about the topic of crash tests of Chinese cars - and found about exactly the contrary Wink

Chinese cars used to be life-threatening, are they safe now?

Quote from: all-car-news

But the Chinese auto industry has clearly not stood still over the past two decades. This is evident from the results of recent Euro NCAP crash tests. Many Chinese newcomers achieve the maximum score of 5-stars and sometimes outperform European models in the same segment. Cars such as the NIO ET7, Lynk & Co 01, MG ZS EV, ORA Funky Cat, WEY Coffee 01 and BYD Atto 3 are extremely safe cars, according to the independent safety institute. Even models we have never heard of – such as the Chery OMODA5 and Maxus MIFA 9 – receive the highest attainable score of five stars from the crash test organization.

This is not the only source I consulted, for example there is also this one. Also sources in German and Spanish are available with the same general tone, the Spanish one (from a highly renowned Argentine newspaper, Perfil) even claims that "Chinese cars are now the safest" Shocked

. They're however all referring to the popular Euro NCAP crash tests. Maybe Russian crash tests are stricter? (I doubt it, but nothing is impossible.)

Let's just say it's an expected reference

1. YouTube has an option to enable subtitles, and enable auto-translation into your native language. And you can easily watch and "read" any clip

2. From the given example - Volvo and MG are not Chinese car industry, they are purchased business, with platforms and technologies developed by European companies.
3. Go to NCAP site, find testing of "Chinese" cars, check - whose brands and licensed models they are, and divide by 5 the number of certified cars. List the remaining Chinese, certified - check - how they are sold in EU/US/Japan. And here you will realize how the real picture of Chinese car industry looks like.

I've already told you - I have a longtime friend who moved to China a long time ago (closer to 2000), and has been working in their oil and gas sector for many years. And last year I saw an announcement of a gorgeous Chinese full electric SUV! I called him and asked him what's up with the Chinese car industry - can I order one, and WELL worth ordering. The answer was such - "...if you want to test - buy...". But to let you know - all less wealthy people drive European, American, Japanese cars.... They're expensive, but they're reliable and safe!" On my question - "so in the new Chinese cars - and there are a lot of airbags, and safety systems, and seem to have improved the design and so on!" he said "yes, there is systemic advertising and support in the "masses", but .... search for information, for example, how airbags deploy in Chinese cars, Chinese-made, and you will understand everything...".

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Bumping this with another I told ya:

China’s risk of deflation is ‘serious’ — one economist says it’s ‘time to act’
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/18/china-deflation-fears-add-to-growth-concerns-wall-street-downgrades.html

Now, there is some info here that might surprise, some, for example, the GDP growth was 6.3% from a year ago and missing the expected 7.3%
, it might sound a lot but it comes over the results from 2022, when the growth was 0.4%, so it's more like a rebound from a period of nothing than actual growth. Much like every country exiting covid restriction went and had a +5+10 % growth.

And this is where it gets troubling:

Quote

This also marked a 0.8% growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year.
“Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016,” said Zhang Zhiwei, Pinpoint Asset Management’s president and chief economist. “This indicates that risk of deflation is serious.”

And here it gets dangerous:

Quote

Chinese banks extended 1.81 trillion yuan ($258.23 billion) in new yuan loans in June, up 22% from May.

The bank keeps injecting money and there is no sign of inflation but serious dangerous of deflation and no wonder other authors have had the same thought as me and instantly thought: Japan!
China’s corporate woes are narrower than ‘Japanification’ fears

Inflation keeps going down in the EU and US, the UK has shown some really sharp drop, pretty soon they will be in the 2%-3% area and right now there is nothing stopping them either, China is already at the brink with 0.2%, there is nothing right now that can stimulate consumption, there is nothing to stimulate spending, and money printing won't solve the things either, besides nobody really wants to cut those rates anyhow.

This is going to be pretty interesting, it's going to be the first time in ages major economy would enter deflation since Japan did so everything is on the table.

stompix

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Quote from: d5000 on July 15, 2023, 07:18:51 PM

They're however all referring to the popular Euro NCAP crash tests.

NCAP tests have become pure garbage.
The Chevrolet Aveo which is a tin can with wheels (we had them as fleet cars so I've seen quite a few of them crashed), scored 95 in passenger protection, Ford Ranger pick-up scored 84.
Now, assume you're a passenger in those cars and there is an X5 coming at you, would you trust those scores?
https://www.iihs.org/topics/vehicle-size-and-weight

After I saw the aftermath of an accident where a drunk moron with an S class split literary in two a mazda 3, trashed a pole, and stopped in a fence only for him to walk on his two legs while the emergency guys were still puzzled about how to collect what remained of the people inside the mazda, I don't care about their ratings one bit.

d5000

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I don't speak Russian so I searched for English news articles about the topic of crash tests of Chinese cars - and found about exactly the contrary Wink

Chinese cars used to be life-threatening, are they safe now?

Quote from: all-car-news

But the Chinese auto industry has clearly not stood still over the past two decades. This is evident from the results of recent Euro NCAP crash tests. Many Chinese newcomers achieve the maximum score of 5-stars and sometimes outperform European models in the same segment. Cars such as the NIO ET7, Lynk & Co 01, MG ZS EV, ORA Funky Cat, WEY Coffee 01 and BYD Atto 3 are extremely safe cars, according to the independent safety institute. Even models we have never heard of – such as the Chery OMODA5 and Maxus MIFA 9 – receive the highest attainable score of five stars from the crash test organization.

This is not the only source I consulted, for example there is also this one. Also sources in German and Spanish are available with the same general tone, the Spanish one (from a highly renowned Argentine newspaper, Perfil) even claims that "Chinese cars are now the safest" Shocked

. They're however all referring to the popular Euro NCAP crash tests. Maybe Russian crash tests are stricter? (I doubt it, but nothing is impossible.)

DrBeer

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Quote from: d5000 on June 03, 2023, 05:46:51 PM

Europe, and most of the rest of the world (by the way: 50% is not true, its ~16 % (2022)). Chinese state and corporations are investing heavily there to penetrate the European market even more. The most notorious example is cars - Chinese carbuilders are building up a strong position in Europe. They may soon get a similar position to Japan and South Korea, with expectations to grow even more.

However, I think that China's growth rates may really enter a (temporary) recession now due to short-term economic policy errors, and in the long term reduce sustainably, i.e. staying largely below ~5% and approaching 1-2% in most years, because it's becoming a stable industrialized economy and there are less opportunities to cheaply catch up. But I also don't see really a catastrophic outcome, even if some seem to desire this. Their internal market is probably strong enough to survive all external crises.

Sorry to bring up an old reply, but just happened to stumble across this video..... I recommend watching it. Today, the Chinese car industry, of course not tin moving carts 40 years ago, but ... they're still a long way from the level of the classic manufacturers... So, a review of Chinese car crash tests. This is a small sample, but if you are interested in the topic, and look for more information about crash tests, you will understand why China will not be able to get a significant part of the market of highly developed countries. The video is a crash test of classic models of the Chinese car industry that even TRIED to be sold in Europe.
The video is in Russian, you can turn on the credits and translation. I think you will find a lot of similar information in your native language by the words "crash test Chinese cars".... I'd rather ride a bicycle than a Chinese car

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjj3sUVotv4

DrBeer

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Quote from: stompix on June 02, 2023, 04:48:02 AM

Had to chop the title so it really sucks but I can't do better right now! Angry

With everyone focused on the debt of the US, the freezing Europeans, yeah lol, there is some really bad news on the horizon and for all sides in this game. If a slowdown in the Western world could be explained by jumping energy prices last year, prices that have since gone down to 2013 levels when it comes to pipe gas, in China manufacturing is dropping right after the reopening, at a continuous pace and despite the downturn in both raw materials and energy prices, copper, coal, iron, steel, wheat, everything is sliding with the PMI alongside.

So, to not be biased and using only the English version of the mouthpiece of the Chinese government:

...........

That is why China has gathered around itself a group of future "yuan slaves".... Under the beautiful songs, the idea of "fighting the monopoly of the US dollar", forcing them to give up the really secured currency (the US dollar) and switch to the "excellent yuan". Yuan in the world economic arena is 2.5% in world turnover, and most of it is with .... Hong Kong

But if the "slaves" are put on the yuan, then it will be possible to make them "China-dependent" consumers of the Chinese economy, which POSSIBLY will lead to some stabilization of the falling Chinese economy. Especially in light of the new non-public restrictions on the Chinese economy by the US and the West in general. So all we are seeing now is China's attempt to save its economy at the expense of "donor" countries and "yuan slaves"....

stompix

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Quote from: d5000 on July 10, 2023, 06:15:15 PM

If we look at the "factory gate" graph we'll see that a "producer deflation" wasn't that uncommon in the past 10 years in China. Particularly between 2013 and 2016 they reached low levels. I think the current value can still be perflectly explained by the imbalances produced by the energy price and post-COVID shocks of 2021/2022, combined with higher unemployment (which is also mentioned in the article) as a consequence of the ultra-hard COVID restrictions. So I expect this indicator's value to go up a bit in the coming months.

That's the thing, normally it would go like low, low, and start growing but we had an already subsidized and stimulated start when the lockdown ended and everyone was expecting the good numbers to grow from that, but we had two months of roaring dragons only to see it going down and further down, despite, and this is an important thing, factories in China coming back (to proposed 100%) at the time the energy crisis in Europe was already over. Much of the growth should have happened when the price collapsed and they went still further down as there was no demand, not from China not from the EU.

That's why I said it was a flop because, unlike a normal recovery where you start easily and gain traction, this started with fanfare, and for three consecutive months it sees downward pressure from both internal and external demand, this is just like in Japan where the government tries but people don't want to spend.

Quote from: d5000 on July 10, 2023, 06:15:15 PM

I think inflation will soon worldwide again reach levels typical of the 2010s

Unless something completely out of the ordinary happens there is nothing that can prevent that, the whole hyperinflation thing was simply blown out of proportions by the media and of course the Russian propaganda, right now I fear that we're heading into deflation and that would be far worse than a 2-3% inflation rate.

Wimex

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In the OP's argument and questions, there are a lot of implications to be drawn to give even a close accurate answer, the volatility of the current economy is highly unpredictable, even more so considering such an unstable benchmark for analysis as "the Asian giant"; however, there are certain aspects such as the possibility of a globalized deflation, and indeed demand levels in many areas have been significantly reduced by a myriad of factors, however, how bitcoin may react is something that may, as well as may not depend on events at the time of the peak of growth, however, the most likely is that it will do so positively and as it has already been demonstrating for several years, it will have a good growth, it is a highly reliable asset in terms of return on investment over a long period of time and the collective economic psychology has shown to appreciate this aspect throughout history.

d5000

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Quote from: stompix on July 10, 2023, 12:13:52 PM

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3227104/china-consumer-inflation-flat-june-factory-gate-prices-fall-further

If we look at the "factory gate" graph we'll see that a "producer deflation" wasn't that uncommon in the past 10 years in China. Particularly between 2013 and 2016 they reached low levels. I think the current value can still be perflectly explained by the imbalances produced by the energy price and post-COVID shocks of 2021/2022, combined with higher unemployment (which is also mentioned in the article) as a consequence of the ultra-hard COVID restrictions. So I expect this indicator's value to go up a bit in the coming months. But maybe you're right and the CPI drops below 0% temporarily, although I think not more than for a couple of months.

For Bitcoin, I see moderately bullish times ahead. I think inflation will soon worldwide again reach levels typical of the 2010s (0-2%, with sometimes slight deflation), and not only in China. In some Western countries it already reached 2-3% or even lower (Spain: 1,9 %), while others are still lagging behind (Germany/France/Italy with >5%). So I expect the ECB, the Fed and other central banks to soon loosen their monetary policy. Of course in a recession/low conyuntural situation people have less money to invest but those that have will be willing to take more risk again.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

And now for the "I told ya!" moment:

From the CCP newspaper:
China’s deflation risks rose in June amid weak demand, with consumer inflation flat and factory-gate prices dipping further
https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3227104/china-consumer-inflation-flat-june-factory-gate-prices-fall-further

Quote

Deflation risks in China heightened in June amid weak demand, with consumer prices remaining flat and a factory-gate price fall deepening further, underlining a slowing economic recovery.
Meanwhile, dragged down by a sharp fall in raw material prices, the producer price index (PPI) – which reflects the prices that factories charge wholesalers for products – fell by 5.4 per cent in June from the previous year. It marked the steepest fall since December 2015.
“The data is weaker than expected. Further evidence that domestic demand is weak,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.

Further reading:
https://www.ft.com/content/b684bf72-1aaf-46ac-9cc2-ea765395aa03
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/chinas-consumer-inflation-rate-slows-to-zero-amid-falling-factory-gate-prices-deflation-threat-lingers-11688954482120.html

Also, this is again interesting from a different perspective, a lot think that money printing equals inflation, but now you have the live example where even with money printing and stimulus China can trigger higher inflation despite wanting to do so!
With low demand hitting China and Japan pretty hard it's a matter of time till it spreads now backward to the EU and US like a reflection of the previous inflationist wave.

Interesting times ahead!

someone703

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Each country's economy actually varies from region to region and is affected by a range of factors such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and resource depletion. As a result, many people now turn to Bitcoin as a means of preserving value and seeking potential profits in times of inflation or deflation. This is also an investment opportunity to accumulate as well as a desire to improve assets in today's difficult times. Trying to accumulate for a long period of time will be a great opportunity if the market turns back. So try to do well with bitcoin because it will be your chance to get rid of money problems in the future.

stompix

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Quote from: Kakmakr on June 11, 2023, 07:14:00 AM

Why are China such a threat to you? I am not from China and I do not support all their strategies... but I am open minded enough to see what they are doing and why they are doing this.

The moment you ask yourself why is somebody posting something it's the moment you quit being open-minded!
Sorry, but you're one of the last guys that can claim this here, look back at your own posting habits where you see only the doom of the Western world and the crumble of the US and the US dollars while you have no problem being a member of a campaign which, what as surprise has its payout pegged to the USD, not the yuan, not ruble not rupee, see the irony here?!?

So before asking yourself why is somebody spotting something you should actually check the post itself and criticize that if you find any flaw with it! And I have some news and update, specifically for you:

China’s exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7point5percent-in-may-far-more-than-expected.html

How do you call facts in tinfoil land, oh yeah FUD!

Quote

You recently also created a thread about the "Dedollarisation" attempts of the BRICS countries ==> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.62383862 to shoot down their efforts.

I didn't create a topic to shoot down something, I created a topic about a complete proven beyond-a-word-of-doubt failure!

DrBeer

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It seems that for the Chinese semiconductor market, they decided to take it seriously and for a long time.
This means that China's advanced electronics industry is CRITICALLY dependent on technology supplies from the US, Japan, the Netherlands and other countries. The reality is that China has not been able to achieve parity and development in order to produce critical elements on its own.

"Japan's new restrictions on exports of 23 types of semiconductor equipment and materials could have a profound effect on the Chinese microchip industry. They will become effective in December. Restrictions require special permission for export of these items to the country. There is a list of 42 "friendly" markets. China is not included in this list, so it falls under the new rules of Japan. Thus they regulate international trade in military and sub-military goods.
This is seen as a serious escalation in the global technology war between the United States and China.

"Japan and the Netherlands are poised to join the U.S. in limiting China's access to advanced semiconductor equipment, creating a powerful alliance that will undermine Beijing's ambitions to develop its own chip production. It is reported by Bloomberg, citing sources.
Officials from the United States, the Netherlands and Japan intend to conclude talks on new restrictions on what can be supplied to Chinese companies. According to Bloomberg's sources, there are no plans to publicly announce the restrictions, which will likely just be imposed."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/japan-netherlands-to-join-us-in-chip-export-controls-on-china

"Japan will stop supplying 23 categories of chip-making equipment to China starting in July
Shipments of Japanese chip-making equipment to unreliable countries like China will be restricted as a result of measures taken by authorities in the Land of the Rising Sun. This was announced by the Minister of Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura in a press release. The moves are aimed at consolidating the efforts of U.S. allies to contain China's development, although Japanese authorities have avoided all mention of such specialization and influence."
https://3dnews.ru/1084318/yaponskie-eksportnie-ogranicheniya-na-postavku-oborudovaniya-dlya-vipuska-chipov-v-kitay-vstupyat-v-silu-v-iyule

As you can imagine, this will only worsen the Chinese economy...

Kakmakr

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OP, I cannot figure out if you are genuinely curious about the influence that China has on the US economy ..or if you are simply trying to protect the US economy? You recently also created a thread about the "Dedollarisation" attempts of the BRICS countries ==> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.62383862 to shoot down their efforts. Huh

Why are China such a threat to you? I am not from China and I do not support all their strategies... but I am open minded enough to see what they are doing and why they are doing this. The world are flooded by FUD about China and the BRICS countries to "Rule the World" ... I think the West are too focused on destroying their own economy.. than stopping this from happening. (Reduce Debt / Make better political decisions / reduce protective trade conditions and just grow the economy naturally) Roll Eyes

d5000

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Quote from: DrBeer on June 10, 2023, 03:14:28 AM

I'm sorry, but the opinion of a person LIVING in China, and receiving information from users of the Chinese auto industry, is more significant for me than your ASSUMPTION, built on the fact that "I heard it somewhere."

Well it's not just an assumption. And I didn't "hear" it but "read" it "somewhere" - some European media were full about these stories in the last months. The media reports are probably mostly based on a report by Allianz ("The Chinese challenge for the European automotive industry") from May 2023 which you can find here. And there you can read things like:

Quote from: Allianz report

The growing competitiveness of China’s automotive industry is best reflected in its bilateral automotive trade with the rest of the world. [...]
While Chinese manufacturers used to focus on the needs of other emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, it is European markets that contributed the most to booming exports, jumping from an estimated 8% share of exports in 2017 to a 28% share in 2022.

Source: Allianz report, p. 10

It seems also according to the report that the market share of completely Chinese carmakers is growing in their country as well, to the detriment of the "traditional" joint ventures with European companies.

The problem for European carmakers is that their big competitive advantage in the past and until the present is their experience with internal combustion engines, but EV production is radically different, and Europe wasn't very strong in this segment (even the US was better until recently). If EVs continue to advance, and this seems to be the case, then logic dictates that Chinese carmakers will continue to strengthen their position in the world market.

bluebit25

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Problems in energy prices, production and export orders could affect the speed of the economy's recovery. In terms of the economic situation, a recession and a drop in demand can cause deflation or bankruptcy. As for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, whether their value increases or decreases depends on the exchange between the buyer and the seller. If the market agrees that Bitcoin has value, the price will go up and vice versa. In terms of Bitcoin acceptance, there are efforts to ramp up marketing to bring Bitcoin into people's daily lives and independent of the monetary and economic policies of a particular country.
Increasing Bitcoin adoption rate will depend on the approval of businesses and financial institutions. Investing in Bitcoin needs to be carefully evaluated, but with its characteristics such as decentralization and security, Bitcoin can still be considered an investment vehicle worth considering in an overall investment diversity.

DrBeer

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Quote from: d5000 on June 06, 2023, 06:29:17 PM

Quote from: DrBeer on June 04, 2023, 05:57:43 AM

The Chinese car industry is a good example, but... I am absolutely sure that this will all end with the introduction of additional duties on Chinese cars, which will cross out the benefits of buying them. The EU will protect its market, as the EU car industry is one of the most important elements of the economy.
The second side of the Chinese car industry is Western technology, without which there are no production lines or high-quality implementation of car functionality.

As far as I know the quality of Chinese cars has improved greatly in the last years, so what your friend told you "a couple of years ago" may already be outdated. It's only the last 2-3 years I've seen good reviews even in European media. And of course this is mainly in the electric/H2 car field.

About increasing tariffs - I don't really believe in that; EU companies are dependant on selling their products to China, so they won't risk a "customs war" like the US is currently willing to risk.

I also don't believe in the theory of the demographic bomb mentioned by others here. There are lots of countries who managed a transition from a society with a low median age to a high median age without major problems. It can be an element lowering economic growth for some years but I believe it won't be dramatic. China (and Asian countries in general, also Japan, Korea etc.) are also known for being quite aggressive using productivity-boosting technologies, for example high tech construction methods with few human workers, or also technology used in care of the elderly, and AI will even improve this situation.

I'm sorry, but the opinion of a person LIVING in China, and receiving information from users of the Chinese auto industry, is more significant for me than your ASSUMPTION, built on the fact that "I heard it somewhere."
For example, I have not heard about mass purchases by Europeans or Americans, Chinese cars. I know that some European automakers have taken production there, and they produce THEIR cars for sale in the Chinese market. This is for example VW Id4.

You can also look at the safety testing of Chinese cars. Most of them absolutely do not meet, for example, European standards, which means they will not enter the market.

With which I agree that the quality has become better, against the background of those "tins" that the Chinese auto industry produced 10 years ago. But .. they are still far from real quality.
PS "Quality" in the automotive industry is a complex indicator, and not just a guarantee for the coating of body parts.

panganib999

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Quote from: stompix on June 02, 2023, 04:48:02 AM

Had to chop the title so it really sucks but I can't do better right now! Angry

With everyone focused on the debt of the US, the freezing Europeans, yeah lol, there is some really bad news on the horizon and for all sides in this game. If a slowdown in the Western world could be explained by jumping energy prices last year, prices that have since gone down to 2013 levels when it comes to pipe gas, in China manufacturing is dropping right after the reopening, at a continuous pace and despite the downturn in both raw materials and energy prices, copper, coal, iron, steel, wheat, everything is sliding with the PMI alongside.

So, to not be biased and using only the English version of the mouthpiece of the Chinese government:

China’s factory activity growth falters in March due to weaker demand, slowing production
China’s factory activity dipped in April on weak demand as bumpy post-Covid economic recovery continue
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.8 in May from 49.2 in April

And things get worse, remember this is Chinese information, so take it with a grain of salt since it might be far worse:

Quote

Youth unemployment has become one of Beijing’s biggest economic headaches amid its recovery efforts, and in April, 20.4 per cent of China’s 16-24 age group were unemployed, up from 19.6 per cent in March.

So no manufacturing so now jobs for the not qualified, no jobs for the young ones that have finished college, which is a different area, and this can lead only to one direction.

If the economic slowdown is present everywhere, China and the Western World, manufacturing is affected on all continents there is only one culprit in sight, and that is demand destruction, and with this, there is a chance we might end in a deflation period if things don't change.
There is simply no demand, and with no demand, there are two choices, prices going down, which means obvious deflation, or bankruptcies which I doubt anyone is that stupid to do before trying the first solution, but the first choice is pretty hard to do when you just had an influx of free money and the rate rises have not yet started to be serious enough.

There is an interesting piece on this from Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/05/13/more-proof-deflation-is-the-future/
of course, it's just an opinion and I will from the start warn you it's a bit speculative even with the data presented but it ends with the same warning as many others on the incoming deflation, although their take on what to do and what next is really not my cup of tea.

Now, slowly turning from this to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was mainly designed as a p2p way of exchanging and transmitting value, due to its limited supply it turned into a way of safekeeping your wealth and further down the line evolved into an investment!
Now, assuming all the required stars align and we really head into a deflationary period for fiat currencies, how will the price of Bitcoin react, since this is the only thing that can be affected by the economy, the rest, the p2p payments, the cold storage, the be your own bank will for sure not be affected, but lately those are of less interest and the focus is on the price most of the time.

For sure, Bitcoin has the required advantage to erase all fears, that is adoption, unlike other commodities it can still attract users, and since I don't really believe those hundreds of millions of users quoted by most sources right now I can safely bet in my mind an x10 adoption rate would be doable at any time from the current moment. But, the question is, will it happen in this short span with enough traction?

So, to make this long story short, two simple opinions:
- do you believe we're heading to deflation?
- how do you think the price of BTC will be influenced if we do so?

One man's misfortune is another's profit. In this case at least, if things do go for the shitter in the PRC, this may drive investors to find other countries to put their money on since production's not going well for the Superpower of Asia. (which I think is still an aftermath of the shitty stuff they did to their workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, not paying them, sometimes even locking their workers inside the factory so they can't go home, all that nasty stuff) Add to this the fact that they are having population problems because of the one-child policy finally biting them back in the asses, and the housing crisis as most housing developers default on their loans, China is definitely not having their greatest year, they may still put a facade that they're doing relatively fine, but the people know the truth.

As for bitcoin, I don't think there will be huge correlation in price between the two, bitcoin may increase in value but it's certainly going to be for other reasons. Same as with deflation, the USD will remain in this sorry state if nothing was done about the National Debt. So while this misfortune that befell China may urge investors and other business entities to switch over to countries, they still couldn't choose US because well, that country's suffering too.

d5000

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 08, 2023, 06:25:58 AM

"A lot of countries"? I don't think it's a common phenomenon in the Modern Age, especially when the economies of the different parts of the world have gotten so inter-connected, that the loss of momentum in one region of the world could easily be taken advantage of by another region.

Basically all of Europe, North America, some parts of South America as well, and Japan/South Korea. While there were economy slowdowns in some of these regions during that transition, nowhere they were catastrophic (Southern Europe could be the region most affected by this phenomenon, but even there I wouldn't describe the situation as "catastrophic". And in South America the economic problems have other reasons, basically the lack of long-term planning and drastic changes in macroeconomic policy which obstaculized the establishment of a strong industry.).

Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 08, 2023, 06:25:58 AM

India, with its growing population, could be in a position to take China's title as the world's manufacturer and source of cheap labor.

This is already happening, we have of course to add countries like Bangladesh. But it's a gradual shift. High aggregated value industries are concentrating in China now, and cheaper "level" industries already moved to India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Ethiopia etc.. Industries are adapting in all countries constantly to these "reconfigurations". I don't see a point in time where this could lead to an extreme slowdown in China which would lead to a full fledged deflation. And India is also close to moving to a high-median age population as fertility rates are already almost on European levels, so they also have to prepare for a "post cheap labor" scenario.

Quote from: stompix on June 08, 2023, 06:48:41 AM

You're comparing different timelines.

I don't dispute what you wrote, but I think it will simply lead to a "normal" economic slowdown, as I posted before. Western Europe in the 80s/South Korea in the 90s weren't poor, and Europe had a particularly early, but slow transition to high median ages. Basically the "cheap labor" industries in China are already declining, and the "others" (high aggregated value) are already developing since several years, with a particular boost in the last 5. I don't want to mention only cars as an example, others are Bytedance/TikTok and Alibaba competing with US tech companies.

So in general I don't think why China shouldn't be "ready for that" while other nations in the 80s/90s were. I see a quite similar transition.

With your second paragraph (the well known marginal utility debate) I fully agree instead and this is also why I think there will be definitely a slowdown in China's economic growtn. My only difference with you is the magnitude - I think it won't be enough for a deflation; a new low inflation phase (like in Japan/Europe) is a more plausible scenario for me.

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I think it is quite important that we need to reconsider when we hear the word "china", because whatever they do, they are not going to end up with anything that helps crypto in the slightest. I think it should be noted that we are talking about a nation that is a dictatorship, and crypto is a decentralized currency, which means that as long as bitcoin stays decentralized, china will always hate it because they can't control it.

There could be some coins that they create, and it will look like some regular Chinese person created it and not the government, but the government will be right behind them. Same happened with Alibaba and Jack Ma, dude was gone for so long and he was punished for being so freely spoken. It is vital to remember it is a dictatorship, that is very important.

Topic: China reopening was a flop, if we're heading to deflation, what about Bitcoin? (Read 612 times)