Topic: China's real-estate sector is NOT doing well, it might bring whole economy down (Read 902 times)

the 2 child policy came out in 2016
the 3 child policy came out in 2021

so the kids indocrinated with 2 child policy. are the ones who have the "sex education" chats at school about family planning
this "sex education" is like 8yo-14yo age range

so if someone was 14 in 2016.. guess what age they are now.. yep 24.. but.. the average age a women starts settling down to have first child is 27
so even the earliest 2 child policy educated child wont be popping out double kids on average for another 3 years

so if someone was 14 in 2021.. guess what age they are now.. yep 17.. but.. the average age a women starts settling down to have first child is 27
so even the earliest 3 child policy educated child wont be popping out triple kids on average for another 10 years

get it yet
this was my point to windfury. he thinks 14yo in 2016 were going to instantly pop out twins on their 15th birthday.. and you too seem to not get the context of understanding data, so you too question "were are all the rise in birth rates" to 2-3 kids


as for your continued use of the X birth per 1000 populous
did you know that the impractical use of that is what makes you look silly
with that 1000 number, it includes old women(infertile), men of all ages, fertile but not settled young adult female. female kids
it warps the numbers to alter the real numbers hidden within of actual births per mother

heck here is one thing even your links highlight..
the disparity of male vs females

the male population was 720.32 million, and the female population was 689.35 million
more men per populous
however even this simplification is not justified explanation. because there is further muffling of numbers to create fake narrative
such as how women outlive men. whereby there are more elderly(not fertile) woman compared to male equivalent, which morths the numbers per populus of the actual women whom are in the settling down to start family demograph


i feel you and windy just got upset that i compared US problems and you didnt like how i disparaged USA and so without thinking you just grabbed the first detail you could find that showed a negative number without understanding how it relates to the understanding, meaning, context of real world causality of the numbers you promote

heck you even doubled down about overall population decline..
um yea. guess you forgot about covid and old people dying.. totally unassociated with fertile women of the age range settling down to start a family, yet again

so here we are again
of just the women without your silly extra added data to muffle the numbers. the birth rate per year is increasing
just not at the rate real estate developers hoped for 2016+
women are still in the 1.6-1.7 children per mother stage not YET the 2.4+ rate the real estate developers were hoping for a birth/real estate boom 2016+


...
by the way i am using data from females born in the 80's,90's millenia to explain why the number did not boom to 2.4+ in 2016
by the way i am using data from females born in the millenia, 10's to explain why the number is not yet ready to boom to 2.4+ yet
by the way i am using data from females born in the 90's millenia, to explain why the number is still rising in the 1.6-1.7 rate


its you that has muffled the numbers, not expressed understanding of the numbers and then used silly numbers to just promote "china bad US not so much"

---

now with me explaining the CONTEXT of why there is no sudden boom of families wanting 2-3 bedrooms this decade, so real estate jumped the gun in the last few years.. the amount that china's government need to give loans/grants/compensation to stabalise the real estate market is actually small incomparison to % of GDP
unlike the US housing to % of GDP the US is spending

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248695/chinas-population-falls-208-million-14097-billion-2023-births-tumble-adding-demographic-concerns

South China Morning Post , owned by Alibaba Group that got axed and taken over by the CCP.
You try to laugh Franky but it's not your laugh! I know real data that proves you wrong it makes you bank your head against every brick in the great wall of china.

Oh wait, how about we go straight to the source:
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html
Bang bang bang!


Lol, so you don't see the slippery slope here?
If those got indoctrinated like this how are the kids nowadays not be indoctrinated since everyone around still has just 1 kid despite the laws not stopping them?


Why are you not mentioning your source? Because you know that's a projection!
How the hell is 2024 CURRENT and not a PROJECTION!

And you till haven't explained how half 5% decrease in births is making the fertility rate go up! 

i still laugh
funny how you use "the guardian"


funny how you ignore things like how covid meant that new relationships are not forming to have their first kid
funny how you ignore all context

funny how instead of now quoting births per female. you are instead using births per population

funny how you dont realise how the demograph that are in the "settled, married ready to have kids" age range.. are the 27yo+
meaning born in mid/late 90's and brought up  as millennials indoctrinated that when they become adults they will only have 1 kid

women become infertile or not really family planning after 40
meaning born early 1980's
their parents would have had many kids but their kids(80's kids) indoctrinated to grow up with one kid

you need to look at the full context
did you know that in the 1980s (83-88) there was a mini boom of births per 1000 that went from 21-24
meaning 14% more females born in 1988 compared to 1983
this results those females growing up to ~30yo-35yo in 2018-2023 outpaced the single digit decline because there was a double digit increase in the age group of females ready to have a family

this explains the fertility rate of 2020-2023 i mentioned a few posts ago. and this (its not a projection)


im using stats from source. you are using western media conclusions based on eastern media conclusions without understanding the underlying data

..
the real estate market in 2016-2021+ took the relaxation of "one child policy" to pre-build homes thinking there would be instant baby booms.. but they didnt take things(like you) into context of WHEN a action causes a reaction to a demography

you really need to take the source numbers involving actual females of family planning age(27-40) and historical data of THEIR rates when THEY were born. to the extrapolate why there was female to child rates that went up in recent years.. to explain the current situation ..

..
as for the future.
the females that are going to have 2-3 kids are still college age or yoounger so not settling down yet

sidenote:
dont use [births per male-incels+old people+infertile women+kids]+fertile women as the numbers wont correspond to nature of the female demograph family planning, and is instead [warped] by the other demographs

Oh Franky what happened to your data?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/china-population-decline-accelerates-as-birthrate-hits-record-low
and the CCP newspaper:
https://archive.ph/DVLuG


They can't turn it it on, it has been on for decades, just because the govemermnt isn't printing money it doesn't mean it's not printing debt for it's regional governments.  There will be no magical recovery, it's just the thing that "China grew old before it got rich", don't know who coined this but he was spot on!

You're right, plus because a falling birth rate, which also leads to an aging population AND which actually puts more tension and demand on the younger age demographic to support the older generation through more taxing/pension schemes, WHICH would also mean that they should work harder/longer hours WOULD cause birth rates and fertility rates to fall further.

China has shot themselves in the foot, and an economic recession now would definitely place them on a harder path to recovery. They should probably turn on their money-printer and risk inflation.

when stompix uses number, you then go to their sources explainer page and see they use guestimate of previous/current years

anyway to the point of this topic
china was low last decade and real estate jumped the gun after 2016 and again in 2021 thinking there will be sudden rush for 2-3 bedroom apartments..
however they didnt realise 15-29 are not the demograph popping out multiple kids. they have yet to even date and settledown de-program themselves from family planning indoctrination they got as kids themselves
(15-19 now are fertile but not even ready for family)
(20-24 now are fertile but covid disrupted finding a partner, and 4 years ago were not ready to settle down)
(25-29 now are fertile may have met a partner but still indoctrinated to old teachings of 1 child policy)

its those that were 7-14 in 2016 that now think 2 kids are the norm
meaning at best 19 in 2021 (but they were not ready to settle when many apartments were build in 2021)
meaning at best 12 in 2021 (but they not fertile/ready to date/settle/start family when many apartments were build in 2021)

the reaction of the 2016 2 child policy wont show results until at best a 14yo in 2016 is 27 .. meaning 2029
the reaction of the 2021 3 child policy wont show results until at best a 14yo in 2021 is 27 .. meaning 2034
now this means china WILL increase population just not yet

however america. with its traps of social media trend promotions of:
treating romantic courting rituals of meeting people in a bar as creepy/stalky/harassment
treating workplace romance rituals of meeting partner in work as creepy/stalky/harassment
treating the gender dynamics as reasons to hate, envy, offend, reject, oppose,  the opposite sex
"independence" means not needing a partner and a single life is better
bi-sexualism and gay trending means less opposite sex partnerships
the non binary of 'there are no real women anyone can be woman, so date a birthed-guy or your a misogynist'
remote working, online socialising and dating. to avoid physical contact
men advice: "live with parents until 25-30, save money"
women advice "dont date a mommies boy still living with parents, date the 0.01% bachelors you will never find"

all lead to americas decline of family planning in this and next decade
(im middle age in a healthy male-female relationship born and raised and ancestors in western culture.. but even i can recognise the wests failures)

in short. china real estate built 8 years too soon but will play catch up
in short america is loosing its footing and going backwards (cant stay at the top forever, only direction is down)

the % of money needed to avert chinese real estate disaster is less % of gdp than the % of GDP needed to prop up and subsidise the US real estate market

Eh ..franky1, you know when numbers are involved he usually quotes the wrong ones and then he throws a fit when pointing that out. I got used to!

But you solution won't work either, because...well it was tested and failed!
It's pretty much the same thing as in the west, the cost for raising wo children are high and China has a another problem, it is treated in the west as a joke and most of it is meme material when you have kids in the 2nd grade being prepared for 6 paths in their career life but it's a highly realistic thing there and unlike 1980 and 2000 when this was still achievable with minimum education right now the costs in a far more competitive close to dystopian system are nuts.

I've read a page on this , I till try to find it again when I had time that compared the madness of getting you kid in a certain school/high school/collage to the animalistic behaviour of the strangest of the cubs, but it that case it was about the one getting the most food in here is about the parents knowing they won't ever have food for two or three so choosing to have just one!

As the wages increase and things get more expensive the cost of raising a child in the major cities outclasses the one in the western world,  there are clinics that charge you $15k for a birth and $40k  per month for the postpartum period, there are repot of people paying $20 000 to have their address temporary moved to another district so their kid can enlist in some different school, one can't even grasps the madness that's actually happening there.
Remember we're talking about a country that's still heavily enforcing the hukou system.

Ad Hominem. You're attacking the source of the information instead of the debate that the information presents, which has been confirmed not by just one source but multiple sources. You should prove that all that data is wrong, which you truly can't because China does have a reduction in reproduction rates and fertility rates. It's in the data, and it's a FACT.

What China should probably start doing is incentivize young couples who have more than two children with tax-cuts and other forms of government subsidies.

when you use western media outlet as your source
whom they use a media outlet as their source, you have already fallen into the trap of the media circle jerk echo chamber of confirmation bias and bad journalism
(research NBD many occurrences of false news and lawsuits)
you should try researching more and not digging your hole deeper

also the source i got my info from did not use projections for historic data, it used thousands of population surveys from within china for historical to current..
the projections were future numbers for upto year 2100 which have nothing to do with the historic data i mentioned. and i did not mention nor reference future numbers from that site

thus your counter argument about projections is empty and void

..
as for windfury assertions that 15yo are fertile and should have been popping out 2-3 kids by now.. he just does not understand context of real world society

there are many many first person prospective from people living in china that state that even young adults are still in the mindset of the teachings of one child policy and it will still take time for parents to be inclined to have 2 kids based on education that 2 kids is fine 2016+
and 3 kids is fine 2021+
because it takes a generation for pre-teens in elementary/primary school being told about family planning to then grow up and reach the typical parenting age of 27 to then start having 2-3 kids.
..
now getting back to the point. fertility rate has actually increased but due to many factors i have mentioned not as fast as some presumed.
(numbers are higher then 1.09 but lower then 2-3)
im not just talking about windfury. i am talking about chinese real estate developers that took the 2016 and 2021 news or relaxing child policy and over developed property before demand flourished..

in short 2016-2030 are not the years where chinese households are going to be demanding a 3-4 bedroom apartment/homes
chinese real estate developers jumped the gun. much like some other idiots

that all said..
america has other population and housing problems far bigger than chinas problems

What we need to realize is every place where the number of people are decreasing would have a real-estate crash. It would mostly be seen in Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe but might follow on Western Europe if they controlled the illegal migration.
Real-estate has been and is a bubble in many parts of the world and it is causing homelessness. It would eventually burst but it would be better if done in a controlled manner. Countries should learn from the problems in China and spend more on productive sector and it's people than helping inflate the housing prices.

I'll just say that I'll let you figure it out why that website has already the 2023 numbers
Well, since admitting you're wrong and that you don't read stuff is impossible for you it has to a bit woth the source:
https://population.un.org/wpp/


So, you're quoting projections.

Now, for the other ridiculous thing, you claim that my 1.09 is wrong as it's fertility rate and you show me :

Just lol: https://archive.ph/mOiTH


Enough real data, not projections for you?

though you foolishly didnt use fertility nor birth stats.. ill ignore your mistake.. its self evident where you went wrong
(you used a stat that included census data of population+ death stats, like elderly excessive deaths due to covid)
ill just say this and let you figure it out

anyway back to the point.
from 2016 onwards many developers accelerated residential construction under the future prospect of population growth=future demand. they too were foolish to think that people will be popping out football teams of kid instantly at 2017 and via the very young fertile who had not been indoctrinated into old one child policies..
but they got it wrong. they built too early, the acceleration has not kicked in yet
then with covid was a double hit

however that said china is not in the worse situation on the planet per capita

Well, it's a war. A war over power and hegemony. In this war different sides are targeting each other by exploiting the weaknesses and taking away other side's strengths. Over the past 10-20 years others have been taking that power away from the US regime, little by little.

For example China's weakness is its massive population and the dissatisfactions that exists in every society and of course the existing dictatorship in China; while US strength is its cold war expertise where they can inflame a society when they put their efforts into it. This is where we see sudden outbursts of riots in China for no reason by people who have no demands and have no idea why they're rioting! lol

On the other hand US weakness and interestingly its strength at the same time is its economy. Despite US economy being massive and dollar being strong, it is all too fragile because all that "empire" depends on dollar remaining the world reserve currency that is used globally, is used in the ongoing scam known as Petrodollar, etc.
Meanwhile China's strength is its economy, super cheap labor and the fact that they keep their fiat exchange rate low. So this is how they hit US back.

For example by keeping their currency's exchange rate low, they keep production super cheap and deepen that trade deficit I pointed out earlier which hurts or even kills domestic production elsewhere including United States hence making those countries more dependent on imports from China which will then help Chinese economy and their further rise to power!

The result is also in other aspects like the fact that a weaker US economy means the US regime will have to stop or at least decrease its "overseas adventures" including but not limited to destabilization of East Asia and the seas around China. That will also help China expand and rise to more power!

---

It may be interesting to know that the fragile yet massive economy of United States has been in the same situation before.

In the 80's US economy was in the same mess as it is today with the increased energy prices, inflation, recession caused by the increased interest rates enforced by Reagan administration, industries losing money being forced to fire thousands of people, industries shutting down, and so on.

US dollar was artificially strengthened back then too because of the increased interest rates but that causes recession and recession kills domestic economy and production.
They were too deep to think about decreasing interest rates or weaken dollar themselves because that would've killed US economy in an entirely different way (same as today).

The difference however was that at that time US economy was competing inside G5 (ie. France, UK, Germany, Japan and US itself). For example the Japanese Yen exchange rate was too low compared to US dollar so Japanese products were cheaper and US economy was suffering in that competition (just like it is today against Chinese cheap products).
The difference here is that the first two are US allies and obey what US orders and the second two are occupied countries that were defeated in WW2 and have no choice but to obey US orders.
Then came the Plaza Accord which is to put simply US ordering these countries to manipulate their currency exchange rates and bring it up against US dollar to make their products more expensive compared to what is produced inside US hence give US economy the chance to compete and most importantly to survive.

In my opinion Japan took the worst of the Plaza Accord as it led to a big bubble in Japanese economy that was followed by a terrible crash. But the final result helped US economy survive on borrowed time.
This time however, US is going against China that is not obeying US commands and has so far refused to strengthen Yuan against dollar despite all US pressure and instead they keep weakening it to continue having cheap production!

Sorry it got too long but I thought it is some interesting points to raise here.
The war hasn't ended and I don't think we can predict the outcome but so far it doesn't look good for US dollar in the long run.

And in what alternate reality did that happen?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN


And in what other different reality is that happening?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2022&locations=CN-US&start=2010


How do you explain that not only there wasn't a pop but the number is even lower compared to the one child policy time?

You're ignoring a lot of things in your assumption as always, you treat countries like simple statistics abased on your own views, completely ignoring what previous policies have done and the mindset of mainland china. Everyone, including the population, waited for this policy change with hope, it's in their culture to have a boy child first, or at least a boy if one kid, that's why it was expected millions who only had a daughter to try to have a boy kid, millions in their 22-35 age gap, well it didn't happen because they realized the cost of rising a second child is just out of their reach so the miracle didn't materialize!

But of course, you're not going to believe me so, a simple question, why did the chinese main statistics center stopped posting fertility rates for 4 years after 2017, the first year of policy change and all the data was coming from regional government till they couldn't hide it anymore?
When China or any other country cancels the release of a basic indicator, you know it's so bad they don't even want to talk about it!


They've done it already though regional government debt!
Local government debt in China is $12 trillions, they printed money like mad and hid it under a ton of other statistics, but slowly as things crumble and state companies go bankrupt the pile of money pumped like there was no tomorrow comes in plain sight!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-s-trillion-dollar-dilemma-of-local-government-hidden-debt


As usual, when things are bad, they stop talking or releasing any data about it!
Imagine the outrage in Europe if any govemermnt wouldn't release data about the debt of the town halls, regions  or state companies?
When one tiny thing hidden comes to light there is like a war erupted in the media, when it's china...well, it's china!

If China's real estate sector crashed the impact on the world economy would be significant. China is one of the largest economies & a major player in the global real estate market. A crash in its real estate sector would lead to a decline in property values, construction activity & investment. This would have ripple effects on other sectors such as banking, manufacturing & commodities. China is a major consumer of raw materials so a slowdown in its economy would negatively affect commodity prices & global trade. A big crash in China's real estate sector would have a substantial impact on the world economy so hopefully it doesn’t happen too bad.

The whole point is that:
- China without technology, money and buyers from the USA will go downhill again very quickly, because... its economy is STRONGLY DEPENDENT on the listed entities.
- The USA will easily survive without Chinese goods, because... The USA has a dollar, for which any manufacturer will produce products of the required quality and in the required volume.
At the same time, “bad and poor China” will be an excellent argument for allocating new funds to the military and other budgets.

China can theoretically begin a real confrontation with the United States and try to weaken them economically only if it finds an alternative sales market, technology supplier and investor. But, as you understand, this is still in the realm of fantasy

there is facts and data on the internet. but you cherry pick without understanding the context.
for instance even stompix done it too
"USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09."

he didnt use the context that years prior US had higher rate
he didnt use the context that years prior china had lower rate

meaning US is on the decline and china is on the rise

also windfury makes the mistake that he thinks 15yo's are popping out 2-3 kids before the parent reaches their 22nd birthday
he doesnt realise the teachings people have as kids about family planning mean when they reach adulthood they are ingrained with the notions they were taught at childhood. so it will take the current young generation of preteens who are now being told its ok to have 2-3 kids to grow up and settle down and when they reach the average age of parenting (27) then you will see more of a rise

in short.. the change of law wont manifest into family planning ideals of  population growth just yet in china

the reason all of this is important and relevant to this realestate topic is that developers planned on buying land in 2016+ as a direct result of family planning laws changing but didnt equate the delay of actual people forming relationships(covid social distancing) and the attitudes ingrained in the 22-27+ group that would have been popping kids out.. (27yo's popping kids out in 2017, 22yo(as of 2017) popping kids out in 2022 when they reach 27)
which again as said, those that were 22+ in 2017 are still ingrained in one child family planning. so not planning on bursting out a football team in the next couple years

---

the very notion that windfury thinks that the kids that were 8-9yo in 2016, (thus turning 15-16yo now) whom do have the teachings that 2-3 kid are fine/normal/moral/lawful. are suddenly the ones becoming parents now to lift the population... he doesnt realise they are just 15yo now.. china still has family morals to not get pregnant out of wedlock and such..

i simply laugh at windfury where he thinks china should be at a 2-3 kid fertility rate based on 15yo's today popping out kids this year

real estate in china that continues to grow and the price is expensive is in perfectur hongkong this means one of the provinces or special regions.
and the economy in Hong Kong is growing rapidly. whether because of the former British colony or what is certain there is more developed than in mainland China.

Plus it's a trend that might have a tendency to continue unless China's incentivization of reproduction through tax cuts work.

It's probably also why the United States is very confident that China would never dare fight them in an open war on the battlefield because it would make their recovery more difficult.

So don't mind frankandbeans, he merely wants a debate on anything I say/post. But how could he gaslight everyone if the facts are available in the internet.


Why would China want to weaken the currency of their cash cow? That would only work against them, no?

Kill? No. Weaken? Definitely.
After all you don't kill a cash cow, it would be like saying US wants to kill the Saudi dictatorship! This is exactly why US pretty much ignored when Saudi regime brutally murdered the Washington Post journalist by chopping him into little pieces and dissolving his remains in acid bath to send a message!!!

That's what US is to China too. A cash cow. That's more than 300 million people who would rely on Chinese products as the imports keep rising while domestic production keeps shrinking and shutting down.
This is exactly why even though China heavily dumped the US treasury bonds they were bag holding but they never dumped it all (dumped about $250 billion of it which is roughly a quarter of what they bag hold).