Topic: China's real-estate sector is NOT doing well, it might bring whole economy down - page 2. (Read 902 times)

first of all
the prime age of people having kids is not 15yo. meaning they have since 7yo been told its ok to have more then 1 kid. setting their moral compass
the 15yo are not the demograph currently having kids
instead the 27yo+ people that are the actual demograph having kids were drilled into them up until their 19th birthday to say they should only consider having 1 kid, so in their minds. its set as a moral compass to only have one kid even if the rules changed
thus their mentality is that they are planning on one kid becasue its wht they have been thinking of when they were younger

its going to take time for the people that were told as kids its ok to have more then one kid. to actually reach the point of settling down to start pushing out kids

things have also been delayed due to the social distancing, where by adults have not been mingling to find a partner to settle down with
so again its going to take time for people to form relationships and have an agreed mindset within the relationship that they want more then one kid

oh and you might want to check that america have more people in immigration detention camps than china
and thats with all the cries of Uyghurs in chinese detention count

yep when fox news pretend china is cramped with uyghurs. america has more detainees per populous than china..so where are the cries that america are locking up more people

China ended the one child policy in 2016! It's been now 8 years since then!
Look at the statistics and articles about it:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/
This is from their own sources!!!

And if you're comparing China with the US
The US population grew by 394,053
China's population decreased by 850,000
The US had a birth rate of 11.0/1000 , China had 6.77/1000
USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09.
Should I add that 24 000 chinese tried to enter the US illegally while.., u know it already!

As for the topic :
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3246908/chinas-home-developers-suffer-further-sales-skid-end-miserable-2023-2024-offers-slim-hope-amid


And this is a newspaper owned by the CCP, so probably the numbers are in reverse order, maybe closer to 64.3 percent!

But the fact that China did have a one-child policy for a long time and then a two-child policy, that did slow down their birth rate as shown in the data.

Plus the other fact that the 15 - 24 year old age demographic being smaller shows that the country will experience lower birth rates, lower than what they're currently having today once 15 - 24 age demographic get older and start having children, and not all of them will have children.

yes centuries ago poor countries would birth many kids due to low survival rate. same went for africa too.
the one child policy was enacted when better medical facilities occured that allowed better survival rate which then caused population booms. which the one child policy THEN enacted to control population growth.

and yes now that they have seen decades of low birthing and the sentiment of not needing to birth several children has calmed down, the one child policy is relaxed. we wont seen parents giving birth to 10 kids. it will settle to a 2-3kid average once people start planning becoming parents
(one child policy relaxed in 2017 to allow 2 kids and only relaxed in 2021 to allow 3 kids) so generationally people 25-40yo are still in the mindset of 1 kid is the ethical norm
it will be the next generation that will see the freedom to have 2-3 kids as normal and ethical

this new culture has been delayed due to the covid saga. but things will speed up

but with all that said. the US already has more % of elderly people reliant on the young already. compared to china. and yet the US is not going to have a boom of extra births because they were never hindered for the last few decades

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i still laugh at windfurys 2 chinese failed notions..
a. that china is wasting more money on real estate than america(per capita)
b. that the chinese elderly are going to cause more struggles than american elderly(% of population)

The one-child policy worked when needed. It worked when most of the population did not yet live in cities, and they had strong traditions of “making more heirs”, for many reasons - both low survival rate and the desire to provide themselves with many breadwinners in their old age. This is normal practice for countries where the population is quite poor. This was the case before the economic breakthrough in China. Nowadays there are many middle class people in China, and they themselves do not see the point in having very many children. This means that the majority of Chinese are abandoning large families, which is already having and in the future will have a strong impact on the demographic situation in the country.

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent
also you used the 15-24 stat yet average age of first time parents is 27+.. not 20
yep most chinese 15-24 are too busy in school, college, university to be settling down popping out babies

i do laugh that you emphasised the 15-24group but ignored the 25-34group who are the main group popping out babies this decade

so by the time the 30-45 get to retirement age the younger populations would reach working age

especially since the one child policy ended and the covid interval of anti-social behaviour has ended

have you ever wondered how china still operates after millenias where america is failing after only a few hundred years

..
if you want an explanation for the lack of 15-24 year old. remember they were born 1999-2008 when the government were really pushing the one child policy.. which no longer applies.

the lack of 15-24 is not due to the economy of 2008-2023

Yet they're "going to kill" the U.S. Dollar and the West, the biggest consumers of manufactured goods made in China. Plus exports are massive and increasing only because the demand is still increasing. China should be supporting their western counterparts.


"A little" today is projected to be a big concern three decades from now.

It's not supposed to "fully" support Chinese economy, it's only one piece of a much bigger puzzle. China is the strategic economy partner of 120+ countries. As I said their exports to the world is massive and it is still increasing.

Besides their ~1.5 billion population isn't "dying" just because birth rates have come down a little!

kinda funny because
US 5-9yo: 5.9%
US 10-14yo: 6.2%

china 5-9yo: 6.29%
china 10-14yo: 6.36%
seems china's young people are more populated

US 30-34yo: 7%
US 35-39yo: 6.7%
US 40-44yo: 6.5%

china 30-34yo: 8.09%
china 35-39yo: 7.61%
china 40-44yo: 6.81%

seems to me china has prime working age people 30-45 more than the US


US 65-69yo: 5.7%
US 70-74yo: 5.1%
US 75-79yo: 3.4%
US 80-84yo: 2.1%
US 85-89yo: 1.2%
US 90-94yo: 0.6%
US 95 +yo: 0.2%
total % over 65: 18.3%

china 65-69yo: 5.54%
china 70-74yo: 4.07%
china 75-79yo: 2.49%   
china 80-84yo: 1.55%
china 85-89yo: 0.87%
china 90-94yo: 0.3%
china 95+yo: 0.06%
total % over 65: 14.88%

yep US has more % of people over 65yo

i really do wonder where windfury gets his information from

Exactly. Population is simply collapsing in China, with the fertility rate dipping below 1 per woman. This means that each new generation will be less than half of the size of the previous one. For example, if there are 1000 people in the grandparent's generation, then it gets reduced to 450-500 in the parent's generation. And in the next generation, there will be only 200-250 people. And in the long term this means that each working age citizen need to support 4-5 elderly people. Even in other developed nations such as Russia and Japan, the birth rate is much higher when compared to China. 

A Recession means that a country's economy is slowing down to a point that it has negative growth year on year, a technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

That definitely makes businesses start laying off a percentage of the labor force - making unemployment surge, and if unemployment surges - demand goes down for both domestic and imported products/services.

Inflation won't be good too, because if prices for goods and services continue to be high, then people's savings will run out and eventually that will cause a recession.


But zoomed out long-term, it might be impossible for China to support their economy through domestic demand. Why? Because their population is dying.

China has set a modest economic growth target of around 5% for 2023, with the country's top leadership avoiding any significant incentives to accelerate the recovery.

About this writes Bloomberg.

It is noted that China's GDP growth target for this year is about 5%, which is the lowest for a quarter of a century. This was announced by Premier Li Keqiang at the beginning of the annual session of the legislative assembly of the country.

Last year, Beijing had expected the economy to grow at 5.5%. But the actual growth rate of 3% was the slowest in decades, with the exception of the covid 2020, when officials abandoned the target altogether.

Achieving a growth rate of around 5% this year would mean the Chinese economy would grow at an average of about 4.6% over the four years from 2020 to 2023, one unit below the average annual growth rate of 6.7% between 2015 and 2019.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-05/china-sets-modest-growth-target-as-economic-risks-persist


... and this is just the beginning , but official Beijing is already forced to openly publish such data. Knowing the habit of manipulating and embellishing the situation, we can assume that the real situation is even worse

I disagree. It all comes down to demand. The demand for Chinese goods is increasing. Check out the massive and still increasing trade deficits between China and any country you like, it is in hundreds of billions specially with largest economies like US. With recession and inflation in the world this will continue growing faster too. That is why they keep Yuan exchange rate weak.
The only way that it would stop growing is if the Chinese government allows Yuan to get stronger (increase exchange rate) against other fiat currencies (which they'll never do) or if other fiat currencies like dollar and euro get dumped as low as Yuan to be able to compete with Chinese products, 1 USD is about 7 Yuan and that's how much it should dump for any hope of competition (which will also not happen because they tend to keep the interest rates high to keep the exchange rate artificially high).

What we see these days like the second line of your comment above is meant to strengthen the domestic economy and keep the economy healthy while the global market becomes volatile due to recession (less overall foreign demand in short term).

The problem is not that the WHOLE economy will collapse, but a 10-15% drop in the economy is enough to cause a tsunami of problems in China - from mass unemployment and a surge of discontent with the passivity of the state. And the state with administrative measures and totalitarian tools will not be able to quickly and qualitatively return to the Chinese what they had yesterday. Including sufficient freedoms, including economic freedoms. The Chinese leadership will take extremely harsh measures, such as "martial law", where everyone will be obliged to do not what they want, but what the "wise ruler" tells them to do. It will be something similar to the past with "military comunism".
The second problem is the departure of Western investors, technologies, and companies. I don't think anyone will return to China in the next 10+ years - they have already "appreciated the charms of the new party vector", and no one wants to take risks, given the probability of a potential risk of a more powerful conflict and confrontation between the Western world and China.

After a major disaster, a country's economy collapses. And COVID was such a disaster that shook the whole world.  No country has been able to get out of its grip, no country has yet.  But I don't think the whole economy of China will go down. Their country's population is high and they have to face many problems because of it.  Hope everything will be fine in their economy system.

China's problem, it is my personal opinion, is the "party's" choice of course on the
1. The vector of power to totalitarianism and the abolition of freedoms, including economic freedoms.
2. Departure from the model launched by Deng Xiaoping, which allowed to develop the economy, private business, and actually make China what it is now.

Xi Jinping's "new trends", in my opinion, have turned China in the opposite direction - opposing the West, "star disease", contacts with rogue countries, curtailing freedoms within China, state control over business, manipulation of information, and attempts to inflate bubbles like the real estate market - all this will not lead to achievements, it can only lead to problems.

And yes, I agree - all countries have problems, but they are looking for real solutions "to cure" the problem, not methods to hide the disease....

But like all economies around different regions of the world, an economy can't expand forever, and not especially China's economy for the zoomed out long term. Why? Because currently their population is getting older. They're slowly not having enough young people to support the older generation = China's population is dying.

Currently, I have been reading that China's five largest state-owned banks have cut deposit interest rates to discourage people from saving and stimulate spending.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

China should learn from the Federal Reserve and turn on their money-printer.

China is greedy in almost anything or let me just call it ambitious. They even wanted to control the entire West Philippine Sea from nine dash line to ten dash line affecting some of it's neighbors and that is non existent based on international law. They've built infrastructures that resembles a ghost town within disputed islands to make it look like being occupied by civilians but it was all for military purposes.

Regarding the real estate issue, I think the infrastructure to population ratio does not match and also those additional tofu-dreg projects makes occupants to rethink and abandon contracts.

A little earlier, another similar event occurred under the headline "China no longer promising"
" ....Vanguard Group Inc. announced the sale of its stake in Ant Group Co. The agreement was made with the support of Jack Ma. The company is thus exiting the $4 trillion Chinese mutual fund market.
Vanguard's share will be acquired by Ant. The asset management giant has decided to close its business in China. The sale of a stake in the advisory firm was another step in its complete exit from the world's second richest economy. The giant no longer sees potential in that direction..."

Not the best of developments for the Chinese economy.....

Why wouldn't they, it's just not worth it anymore. It was definitely worth it at some point, and it looked like it would be fun to make some money that way but when you look at it this way then suddenly it looks like it's not worth it. We are talking about spending millions just to have an office and workers there, it's just the infostructure that would not be worth it, and they are going to end up being a lot worse on that front.

This is why I believe that we are going to end up with something that will not be all that simple, and more and more people will get out of it. China has done something terrible with the money they got, they were so rich, they made so much money, it shouldn't have been spent on anything like this at all. They could have used their money to build stuff that would keep on making even more money, build even more factories, pay people even more and just grow that nation organically. Trying to grow it by throwing money at it ended up horribly for them.