Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth? - page 2.

johnyj

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1012

Beyond Imagination

Quote from: monkeybars on June 28, 2013, 10:03:09 PM

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

True, in 2 years, the real problem might comes from the governments being insolvent, and the collapsing of goverment bonds. To keep that amount of huge pile of bonds afloat, 10x more money must be printed, when that happens, the only safe heaven is bitcoin

monkeybars

sr. member

Activity: 278

Merit: 251

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 09:46:21 PM

Quote from: monkeybars on June 28, 2013, 08:26:02 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

You have a good point here, but the fact of the matter is that the bitcoin market is still fairly illiquid in that you can't buy or sell a lot of bitcoins without moving the price. Interestingly, there's already a bitcoin fund for what's called qualified purchasers (people with $5+ million to invest) who buy and sell very carefully so as to not move the markets. But I imagine you're right that the big hedge funds, private equity funds, etc are barely even looking at Bitcoin yet because it's so small that it's barely on their radar.

Then again, getting in now (or earlier) if bitcoin ends up being super successful, is how to make a lot of money since if bitcoin truly succeeds, the long term prices will be in the thousands of dollars.

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: monkeybars on June 28, 2013, 08:26:02 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

You have a good point here, but the fact of the matter is that the bitcoin market is still fairly illiquid in that you can't buy or sell a lot of bitcoins without moving the price. Interestingly, there's already a bitcoin fund for what's called qualified purchasers (people with $5+ million to invest) who buy and sell very carefully so as to not move the markets. But I imagine you're right that the big hedge funds, private equity funds, etc are barely even looking at Bitcoin yet because it's so small that it's barely on their radar.

Then again, getting in now (or earlier) if bitcoin ends up being super successful, is how to make a lot of money since if bitcoin truly succeeds, the long term prices will be in the thousands of dollars.

Coinseeker

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote

Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth?

0

monkeybars

sr. member

Activity: 278

Merit: 251

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

monkeybars

sr. member

Activity: 278

Merit: 251

Quote from: jeannie on June 28, 2013, 06:58:12 PM

My guess that it will be between $10000 - 100 000 if the Fed and the banks don't disrupt it

I'm fairly certain the Fed and banks will attempt to disrupt the BTC market as best they can. The beauty is, this will only strengthen Bitcoin, since people rightly have more trust in mathematics and technology than bankers. In fact, in the long term, the more (legislative, economic, technological) pressure the economic status quo exerts on Bitcoin, the greater effort the BTCommunity will devote to subverting them, resulting in overall stronger currency.

Bitcoin cannot be stopped, only laid aside. I'm a bull because I don't believe it will be laid aside.

SEC agent

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

America, land of the free

OK, it could hover around $1 or $10 or $50 then...the number isn't important, and you are completely missing the point.

vokain

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

Quote from: SEC agent on June 28, 2013, 07:48:50 PM

Quote from: BitChick on June 28, 2013, 06:31:36 PM

BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.

You people keep saying this, but its a false dilemma. There is no reason bitcoin couldn't hover around .00005 USD (only traded and used within the niche community), or continue to boom and bust, or whatever.

0 or 100,000 are not the only options.

Semantics. What's the difference between that arbitrarily low number to zero and zero for Bitcoin? not much

SEC agent

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

America, land of the free

Quote from: BitChick on June 28, 2013, 06:31:36 PM

BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.

You people keep saying this, but its a false dilemma. There is no reason bitcoin couldn't hover around .00005 USD (only traded and used within the niche community), or continue to boom and bust, or whatever.

0 or 100,000 are not the only options.

vokain

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

but they pave the way for the future. see panic buy to $32. once we grind to $266 again, I imagine further panic buying. At all times the market is searching for equilibrium prices.

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: vokain on June 28, 2013, 07:02:24 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:55:48 PM

Quote from: vokain on June 28, 2013, 06:46:14 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

In two years? I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are. My bet is $200 - $500. Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell. I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

I'm just saying that's a way to get the price to $1000 quickly. Also, the same fear that runs along panic buying will do it (the getting left behind phobia + a dose of understanding of future dynamics).

Sure, people can panic buy the price to $1,000. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens, but panic buy prices aren't sustainable. What I was talking about is a sustainable increase in price, in other words getting there and not crashing down to $100 or $500, etc.

vokain

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:55:48 PM

Quote from: vokain on June 28, 2013, 06:46:14 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

In two years? I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are. My bet is $200 - $500. Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell. I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

I'm just saying that's a way to get the price to $1000 quickly. Also, the same fear that runs along panic buying will do it (the getting left behind phobia + a dose of understanding of future dynamics).

jeannie

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

My guess that it will be between $10000 - 100 000 if the Fed and the banks don't disrupt it

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

Quote from: vokain on June 28, 2013, 06:46:14 PM

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

In two years? I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are. My bet is $200 - $500. Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell. I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

xristoskostouros

member

Activity: 63

Merit: 10

if (USDMarket)
  {
  x="BTC Wins";
  }
else
  {
  x="BTC Loses";
  }

That simple. Really

vokain

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

Quote from: halfawake on June 28, 2013, 06:44:03 PM

In two years? I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are. My bet is $200 - $500. Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

MAbtc

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 508

If Bitcoin "goes to 0" it won't really be 0. It will always have trivial value as a collector's item! Grin

halfawake

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 500

In two years? I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are. My bet is $200 - $500. Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

vokain

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1019

Quote from: BitChick on June 28, 2013, 06:31:36 PM

Quote from: vokain on June 28, 2013, 06:27:47 PM

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest. BTC is either $0 or $100,000+. Seems like a good gamble to me. Wink

What are the odds really? I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game. Earlier on I would have said it was more like 20/80 or 10/90 that BTC would succeed. Now is the time to get into for those that want less risk. Why? Bitcoin already has traction as the #1 cryptocurrency. VCs are pouring money into it and there has been a decent amount of press and there are people already using it regularly.

and every day bitcoin exists nudges it closer and closer towards winning

BitChick

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1001

Quote from: vokain on June 28, 2013, 06:27:47 PM

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest. BTC is either $0 or $100,000+. Seems like a good gamble to me. Wink

What are the odds really? I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game. Earlier on I would have said it was more like 20/80 or 10/90 that BTC would succeed. Now is the time to get into for those that want less risk. Why? Bitcoin already has traction as the #1 cryptocurrency. VCs are pouring money into it and there has been a decent amount of press and there are people already using it regularly.

Topic: Close your eyes, wait two years... how much is a bitcoin worth? - page 2. (Read 3827 times)