Has anyone noticed that in just a few days we've put together the majority of orders for 8.6th worth of chips? Anyone have any thoughts about how adding that to the network alone will multiply the difficulty? Let alone if BFL finally ships? Will the 8.6gh rig I ordered even be able to pay itself off in a year?
Current hash rate: 57 TH/s
New expected in July from chip order: 8.6 TH/s
(57+8.6)/57 = 1.15 or 15% increase. About the same as this last difficulty increase.
I expect the difficulty to be double by June, which would mean,
(114+8.6)/114 = 1.075 or 7.5% increase projected.
Par for the course over the next 7 to 8 months. Why this long?
Because that is how long doubling each month will take until the electricity cost is most of revenue. That seems like a feasible limit before people shut down due to low operating margin. (Assuming constant btc price and we all know how likely that is!)
2^7 = 128
57 * 128 = 7296 TH/s projected.
Now plug that into your mining calculator. We can eventually remove 30 TH/s for GPU drop outs but that will be unnoticed by that time.