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Topic: [Closed] Black Arrow's Avalon - page 3. (Read 6293 times)

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1003
June 15, 2013, 02:35:15 AM
#66
Not speculation whatsoever. Difficulty is a proven mechanism in BitCoins algorithms. Look at the past and see if Avalon owners agree that this is in the right neighborhood of profitability of the past. Look at the date. I put the date I received mine as the starting point. Up until now the difficulty has adjusted roughly every 2 weeks. In the near future (Probably tommorrow) it is less than a week between adjustments. When the other ASIC companies ship it is absolutely guaranteed to adjust even quicker than once a week.

Making the forecast even grimmer.



Ask Avalon owners from Batch 1 if this is close to accurate for them. It is for me. If so, then the other estimates won't be far off. Sorry, I prefer to tell people that they are about to be milked dry.

This isn't only an Avalon issue, it is an issue for all ASICs regardless of who makes it. The current prices will ensure customers won't ever see profitability. Your charging "Batch 3" prices when these machines could be made for heck of alot less. You don't even have NRE costs or fab costs to worry about. You are just a clone manufacturer who taking blueprints already made and sending them to someone to put it together at a significant cost savings.

It is extremely relevant....it is based on basic math.

hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
June 15, 2013, 01:52:47 AM
#65
This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

This is pure speculation. Please move here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1003
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
June 15, 2013, 12:15:04 AM
#63
wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on

I'd almost bet that if this were in the proper (for sale) forum, there'd be a lot less critical discussion.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
- - -Caveat Aleo- - -
June 14, 2013, 10:46:03 PM
#62
Yes it looks like the blackarrow device will only generate about 30BTC it's first 3 months if delivered 7/31/13.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
June 14, 2013, 10:40:16 PM
#61
wow
the profit decreases so fast  Smiley

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.



---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.
sr. member
Activity: 342
Merit: 250
June 14, 2013, 10:32:32 PM
#60
This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.



---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.

Nice, I think you created the longest post in history.  It is good that you post this to open some peoples eyes to what they are spending for asics. 
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1003
June 14, 2013, 10:29:51 PM
#59
This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.



---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1026
In Cryptocoins I Trust
June 14, 2013, 10:18:28 PM
#58
wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on or comment on it

Since this is a forum for commenting on things.

+1

I for one am not happy to have to overpay for ASIC hardware. The manufacturers are taking large markups making it to where all the hardware might not even break even. I say the same thing on ASICMINER threads, yet they do what they please. At least they know my opinion and why I'm not doing business with them. It is good as a retailer to know your market and what your potential customer base wants.

I was offering constructive criticism.

EDIT: .. and it seems he took it to heart and did lower his prices. Kudos to him, I may order one.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
June 14, 2013, 10:13:14 PM
#57
wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on or comment on it

Since this is a forum for commenting on things.
hero member
Activity: 711
Merit: 500
June 14, 2013, 10:08:30 PM
#56
wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
June 14, 2013, 10:03:04 PM
#55
Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...



Just spreading the gospel of good sense.

common sense prevail, but some wants to make a big profit, they are selling the shovels and they couldn't be bother about difficulty and what not .. really smart

Agree with this  Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
June 14, 2013, 10:00:42 PM
#54
Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...



Just spreading the gospel of good sense.

common sense prevail, but some wants to make a big profit, they are selling the shovels and they couldn't be bother about difficulty and what not .. really smart
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
June 14, 2013, 07:12:43 PM
#53
Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...



Just spreading the gospel of good sense.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
June 14, 2013, 05:10:47 PM
#52
Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 14, 2013, 04:50:37 PM
#51
Not interested at that price; not really even close to a break-even situation. n a Diff will be 40MM at delivery, and thats if you actually hit your timeline.  You need to consider margins far lower than the 100% your trying to get, especially o preorder.

Anyway; good luck, others might be interested.

Why is an Asicminer Blade with 13Ghash worth 50BTC and Avalon 65Ghash doesn't worth 99BTC?

I can have a blade on my desk in three days.  If you can deliver Avalon clone in three days, I'm sure you'll find many people who would pay 99+ for it.

Blades are sold out.  You can't have one in 3 days anymore, unless you buy it secondhand from someone.  And then you are in no better a position than buying a used Avalon.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1000
June 14, 2013, 04:46:13 PM
#50
Anything above 20BTC is way overpriced.

Considering the difficulty crunch that is about to rear it's head on people. There won't be a reason to imitate Avalon previous price points for 65Gh/s.

If they can't sell it at well below 20 BTC then they are certain to be a future defunct company. Period.

KNC/BFL or whoever, it applies.

As difficulty increases companies WILL lower their prices or people (except the most foolhardy) simply won't pay it. There is no incentive to throw away money on an ASIC that will just barely eek out it's own cost.

I think there will be a round of fools who will get fleeced. After that, prices will return to earth.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1003
June 14, 2013, 04:44:24 PM
#49
Anything above 20BTC is way overpriced.

Considering the difficulty crunch that is about to rear it's head on people. There won't be a reason to imitate Avalon previous price points for 65Gh/s.

If they can't sell it at well below 20 BTC then they are certain to be a future defunct company. Period.

KNC/BFL or whoever, it applies.

As difficulty increases companies WILL lower their prices or people (except the most foolhardy) simply won't pay it. There is no incentive to throw away money on an ASIC that will just barely eek out it's own cost.
newbie
Activity: 63
Merit: 0
June 14, 2013, 03:59:26 PM
#48
I bid 77BTC
hero member
Activity: 491
Merit: 514
June 14, 2013, 03:29:45 PM
#47
Not interested at that price; not really even close to a break-even situation. n a Diff will be 40MM at delivery, and thats if you actually hit your timeline.  You need to consider margins far lower than the 100% your trying to get, especially o preorder.

Anyway; good luck, others might be interested.

Why is an Asicminer Blade with 13Ghash worth 50BTC and Avalon 65Ghash doesn't worth 99BTC?

Surprising that somebody planning to manufacture ASIC miners does not know the answer to this. Hint: A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
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