[Closed] Black Arrow's Avalon - page 3.

PuertoLibre

legendary

Activity: 1890

Merit: 1003

Not speculation whatsoever. Difficulty is a proven mechanism in BitCoins algorithms. Look at the past and see if Avalon owners agree that this is in the right neighborhood of profitability of the past. Look at the date. I put the date I received mine as the starting point. Up until now the difficulty has adjusted roughly every 2 weeks. In the near future (Probably tommorrow) it is less than a week between adjustments. When the other ASIC companies ship it is absolutely guaranteed to adjust even quicker than once a week.

Making the forecast even grimmer.

Ask Avalon owners from Batch 1 if this is close to accurate for them. It is for me. If so, then the other estimates won't be far off. Sorry, I prefer to tell people that they are about to be milked dry.

This isn't only an Avalon issue, it is an issue for all ASICs regardless of who makes it. The current prices will ensure customers won't ever see profitability. Your charging "Batch 3" prices when these machines could be made for heck of alot less. You don't even have NRE costs or fab costs to worry about. You are just a clone manufacturer who taking blueprints already made and sending them to someone to put it together at a significant cost savings.

It is extremely relevant....it is based on basic math.

blackarrow

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: PuertoLibre on June 14, 2013, 09:29:51 PM

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

This is pure speculation. Please move here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0

PuertoLibre

legendary

Activity: 1890

Merit: 1003

http://speedy.sh/R2gXU/ASICs-are-way-overpriced-v1.xlsx

Here is the spreadsheet.

dropt

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Reckman on June 14, 2013, 09:08:30 PM

wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on

I'd almost bet that if this were in the proper (for sale) forum, there'd be a lot less critical discussion.

dwdoc

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1000

- - -Caveat Aleo- - -

Yes it looks like the blackarrow device will only generate about 30BTC it's first 3 months if delivered 7/31/13.

newmars

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

wow
the profit decreases so fast

Quote from: PuertoLibre on June 14, 2013, 09:29:51 PM

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.

---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.

psjw4450

sr. member

Activity: 342

Merit: 250

Quote from: PuertoLibre on June 14, 2013, 09:29:51 PM

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.

---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.

Nice, I think you created the longest post in history. It is good that you post this to open some peoples eyes to what they are spending for asics.

PuertoLibre

legendary

Activity: 1890

Merit: 1003

This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week.

Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%.

So this is a rather rosy picture.

---------------------

ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts.

Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc.

CoinHoarder

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1026

In Cryptocoins I Trust

Quote from: k9quaint on June 14, 2013, 09:13:14 PM

Quote from: Reckman on June 14, 2013, 09:08:30 PM

wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on or comment on it

Since this is a forum for commenting on things.

+1

I for one am not happy to have to overpay for ASIC hardware. The manufacturers are taking large markups making it to where all the hardware might not even break even. I say the same thing on ASICMINER threads, yet they do what they please. At least they know my opinion and why I'm not doing business with them. It is good as a retailer to know your market and what your potential customer base wants.

I was offering constructive criticism.

EDIT: .. and it seems he took it to heart and did lower his prices. Kudos to him, I may order one.

k9quaint

legendary

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Reckman on June 14, 2013, 09:08:30 PM

wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on or comment on it

Since this is a forum for commenting on things.

Reckman

hero member

Activity: 711

Merit: 500

wow bitcointalk took a shit on this thread,

blackarrow is just setting a price, get over it, if you dont like it move on

newmars

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: dan99 on June 14, 2013, 09:00:42 PM

Quote from: TheSwede75 on June 14, 2013, 06:12:43 PM

Quote from: chanberg on June 14, 2013, 04:10:47 PM

Quote from: TheSwede75 on June 14, 2013, 01:19:08 PM

Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...

Just spreading the gospel of good sense.

common sense prevail, but some wants to make a big profit, they are selling the shovels and they couldn't be bother about difficulty and what not .. really smart

Agree with this

dan99

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: TheSwede75 on June 14, 2013, 06:12:43 PM

Quote from: chanberg on June 14, 2013, 04:10:47 PM

Quote from: TheSwede75 on June 14, 2013, 01:19:08 PM

Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...

Just spreading the gospel of good sense.

common sense prevail, but some wants to make a big profit, they are selling the shovels and they couldn't be bother about difficulty and what not .. really smart

TheSwede75

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: chanberg on June 14, 2013, 04:10:47 PM

Quote from: TheSwede75 on June 14, 2013, 01:19:08 PM

Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...

Just spreading the gospel of good sense.

chanberg

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: TheSwede75 on June 14, 2013, 01:19:08 PM

Please sell at fixed price in USD without/with power supply. I would order ASAP if this was the deal. Auction format only works for in-hand units. Also why can't you sell under $7600? The chips @ BTC0.80 is only $2400, + maybe $500 for boards and misc hardware that gives you 70% profit margin at $7500-ish.

Drop it to $5k firm in USD and you would fill every order you can sell in a day! I guarantee it.

agreed...

pikeadz

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: blackarrow on June 14, 2013, 12:08:51 PM

Quote from: derr777 on June 14, 2013, 11:06:20 AM

Not interested at that price; not really even close to a break-even situation. n a Diff will be 40MM at delivery, and thats if you actually hit your timeline. You need to consider margins far lower than the 100% your trying to get, especially o preorder.

Anyway; good luck, others might be interested.

Why is an Asicminer Blade with 13Ghash worth 50BTC and Avalon 65Ghash doesn't worth 99BTC?

I can have a blade on my desk in three days. If you can deliver Avalon clone in three days, I'm sure you'll find many people who would pay 99+ for it.

Blades are sold out. You can't have one in 3 days anymore, unless you buy it secondhand from someone. And then you are in no better a position than buying a used Avalon.

k9quaint

legendary

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1000

Quote from: PuertoLibre on June 14, 2013, 03:44:24 PM

Anything above 20BTC is way overpriced.

Considering the difficulty crunch that is about to rear it's head on people. There won't be a reason to imitate Avalon previous price points for 65Gh/s.

If they can't sell it at well below 20 BTC then they are certain to be a future defunct company. Period.

KNC/BFL or whoever, it applies.

As difficulty increases companies WILL lower their prices or people (except the most foolhardy) simply won't pay it. There is no incentive to throw away money on an ASIC that will just barely eek out it's own cost.

I think there will be a round of fools who will get fleeced. After that, prices will return to earth.

PuertoLibre

legendary

Activity: 1890

Merit: 1003

Anything above 20BTC is way overpriced.

Considering the difficulty crunch that is about to rear it's head on people. There won't be a reason to imitate Avalon previous price points for 65Gh/s.

If they can't sell it at well below 20 BTC then they are certain to be a future defunct company. Period.

KNC/BFL or whoever, it applies.

As difficulty increases companies WILL lower their prices or people (except the most foolhardy) simply won't pay it. There is no incentive to throw away money on an ASIC that will just barely eek out it's own cost.

fforforest

newbie

Activity: 63

Merit: 0

I bid 77BTC

Tehfiend

hero member

Activity: 491

Merit: 514

Quote from: blackarrow on June 14, 2013, 12:08:51 PM

Quote from: derr777 on June 14, 2013, 11:06:20 AM

Not interested at that price; not really even close to a break-even situation. n a Diff will be 40MM at delivery, and thats if you actually hit your timeline. You need to consider margins far lower than the 100% your trying to get, especially o preorder.

Anyway; good luck, others might be interested.

Why is an Asicminer Blade with 13Ghash worth 50BTC and Avalon 65Ghash doesn't worth 99BTC?

Surprising that somebody planning to manufacture ASIC miners does not know the answer to this. Hint: A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Topic: [Closed] Black Arrow's Avalon - page 3. (Read 6348 times)