After reading your posts about your banking issue, to me it sounds like you have sold a lot coin for a lot of money in the past few months. (im thinking in the hundreds of thousands range, at least) The reason I think that is that you have or had a personal banker which you only get if you transfer a large sum over period of time. You have to remember that the Govt is focusing on illicit vendors that use bitcoin. You probably raised flags since you probably fit that mold. Im not saying you are by any means, I would find another bank, or a couple of banks and not transfer so much money. I would keep it to under 25k a month. But when you transfer tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands and its all from bitcoin, of course they are going to assume that you are getting them illegally. Thats why coinbase is now asking where you got your coin.
The guys that were on the silk road case have now formed a KYC organization and all they do is go thru all bitcoin exchanges and look at everyones personal info and when they see a red flag, you will be investigated. I learned this from looking at a linkedin profile of one of the head guys at the DEA that brought down silk road and he actually put that in his profile, lol... So, anyone that is going to be withdrawing a substantial amount of money with bitcoin is going to get looked at. Especially a USA based company that wants to stay compliant.
You are almost certainly correct in all of your estimates outlined above.
I do hope that at some point it will be more possible to stretch Bitcoin operations out as months-long tactical plays, but at the present time and for the near future Bitcoin is far to volatile.
I understand and indeed welcome financial institutions looking for criminal activity an attempts to criminally exploit their offerings. Ideally I WOULD be flagged and investigated. If any questions remain outstanding, all they would have to do is contact me and I would explain the details and provide documentation which could be cross-checked against other data that the various entities have (which is probably a lot.) Then I would be told to carry on, or normally I would never have been bothered in the first place. Coinbase seems to have performed in this manner and I appreciate it.
In actuality what happened in mainstream-land is that I was very significantly impacted on the the basis of suspicion alone and with no opportunity to supply input. This might be more 'efficient' (e.g., add to Wells Fargo's next few quarterly earnings and bonuses for their execs), but it's not a maintainable method of fostering and enduring economy. If legitimate players are forced out of the system it does nobody any good (except that it might spur development of crypto-currency alternatives which, I must admit, I very much welcome.)
I believe that when there is credit card and other fraud, the banks just distribute the cost of the fraud to their non-fraudulent userbase and make little or no attempt to hold the perps accountable. They probably do send a note to law enforcement, but it usually goes into the round file for 'efficiency' reasons. Again, this is a form of corrosion of our financial systems (and political systems) and the effects will increasingly felt (higher fees, etc) but more threateningly will form a weakened structure which is prone to play a role in a more systemic collapse.