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Topic: CoinLab News = Price collapse - page 3. (Read 6895 times)

hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
February 28, 2013, 10:32:06 PM
#28
If i loan 50k BTC @ 1% interest over the week - e.g. so must pay back 50500BTC, and sell 50k BTC at once time, it'll start a panic / bubble burst.

Still trying to figure out how this will cause a crash. (i've never played other markets).  If you loan someone 50k BTC plus interest and they have to pay you back bitcoins then how does that involve selling at all? Or are you saying that they loan in bitcoins but expect to be paid in cash?

This is how "shorting" works:
  • borrow coins
  • throw them on the market
  • hope to kill the rates (1)
  • buy back at lower rate (2)
  • pay back the loan

(2) is where you are taking profit
(1) is where the risk or the catch is hidden

What would happen if someone throws 50k coins on the BTC market as it stands now?
Simple: everyone and my grandmother would rush in to get his hands on the "cheap coins". Thus the manipulator has to compete with everyone and my grandma for buying back, and competing with my grandma will kill 'tem

newbie
Activity: 24
Merit: 1
February 28, 2013, 10:06:07 PM
#27
The real goal would be to help the public know they really can and should demand proof that their deposits are safe and sound and not fractionally pledged, the same way "provably fair gaming" is teaching us by example that we should demand, well, provably fair games.

In turn, this would cut down the number of "paper bitcoins" in existence (or rather, I should say, "bitcoin-denominated promises", because the "paper bitcoins" I have in mind - like bitaddress.org and bip38 - are actually close to the best kind of bitcoins you can have!)

Awesome, awesome idea.  I'm replying without having really thought through much (and indeed somewhat off-topic from the OP) but that sounds like it would work, right?  Because of the non-fractional reserve, you'd have to pay some kind of fee to store your BTC at the First Bank of Casascius, though.  So basically you're paying a party to securely store your BTC for you.  Which is the whole idea of the original purpose of banks,  except now the fact that they're actually holding on to it is instantly verifiable.  Cool.

You haven't, like, patented that idea or anything yet, have you?  heh.
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1004
February 28, 2013, 10:03:17 PM
#26
In addition to the news that CoinLab is gonna manage USA/CA funds from Mtgox, they are announcing a professional, safe and licensed trading platform for US Corporations.

Trading platform = shorting.

3 or 4 medium sized corporations with 3 or 4 multimillion shorts puts the prices in $10 or below in no time.




First of all shorting can only reduce the price on that platform.  Unlike stock markets, actual bitcoins can not be created out of thin air.  If you buy cheap shorted bitcoins and can not withdraw them, it is a 'bucket shop'. 

Second of all, with shorting you get short squeezes.  And unlike the stock market, a bitcoin short squeeze can kill (expose the reality) of a trading platform.  While it is POSSIBLE with paper stocks to withdraw the certificates and have them sent to yourself, NOBODY does this.  With bitcoin many people actually do withdraw from the trading platform and can expose the lack of real bitcoins behind the scenes.

BRING IT ON!
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
February 28, 2013, 09:56:35 PM
#25
This idea requires cooperation between your clients which isn't realistic unless anonymous. So really, you can as well have these coin ranges in a form of a public but anonymous ledger. Anybody who knew his/her id in the ledger would be able to verify quickly that their coins are on display. No overlaps possible. No communication needed Smiley A completely transparent bank.

if you could prove that your coins were there how does that prove that extra coins aren't there?

What do you mean?
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 501
There is more to Bitcoin than bitcoins.
February 28, 2013, 09:52:51 PM
#24
I don't see how investment firms could "crash the price" as described in OP, but I do see how this latest development may lead to bitcoin becoming more of a speculative vehicle, and less of a trading currency or secure long-term investment. Wild fluctuation in price - in either direction - is disruptive. Oh, well. Not really bad news, but not quite what I was hoping for.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
February 28, 2013, 09:29:10 PM
#23
Trading platform = shorting.
3 or 4 medium sized corporations with 3 or 4 multimillion shorts puts the prices in $10 or below in no time.

The ability to short doesn't magically allow the price to be driven down longer than the term of the loan contract.  They have to rebuy the units they short-sold within the time limit, and if the rest of the market hasn't agreed with them during that period of time, they lose money on the short.

And further. All the ability to short on a market does is provide stability to the market price, because shorters become buyers during a price dip (as they are taking profits).  Stupid politicians think that shorting makes things crash faster, hence the regular bans during recessions.

Bitcoin must be the world's No.1 high-growth financial instrument, with a four-year track record which demolishes even gold's performance. Anyone/corporation attempting a long-term short would be totally insane. They would get more of a kick from sticking an electric eel up their trouser leg (it would be far cheaper!)
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
February 28, 2013, 08:38:22 PM
#22
I would like to remind all Canadians that http://cavirtex.com/ is an outstanding exchange I really feel i can trust them with my money ( and with more security improvements on the way!) .  Keep using cavirtex!

It is a great option and I use it regularly; however there are situations where one can make use of the additional liquidity provided by MtGox. I have accounts at both.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
February 28, 2013, 08:37:40 PM
#21
This idea requires cooperation between your clients which isn't realistic unless anonymous. So really, you can as well have these coin ranges in a form of a public but anonymous ledger. Anybody who knew his/her id in the ledger would be able to verify quickly that their coins are on display. No overlaps possible. No communication needed Smiley A completely transparent bank.

if you could prove that your coins were there how does that prove that extra coins aren't there?
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
February 28, 2013, 08:36:41 PM
#20
If i loan 50k BTC @ 1% interest over the week - e.g. so must pay back 50500BTC, and sell 50k BTC at once time, it'll start a panic / bubble burst.

There's enough people out there looking for "ways" to invest their BTC with viable returns.

As soon as someone makes a nice platform to short, the bubble will burst a lot quicker.  It wont take more than a sell off of say 100k BTC lent to cause a crash.  As soon as it crashes, can easily buy it back in a weeks time to cover the short.

Still trying to figure out how this will cause a crash. (i've never played other markets).  If you loan someone 50k BTC plus interest and they have to pay you back bitcoins then how does that involve selling at all? Or are you saying that they loan in bitcoins but expect to be paid in cash?

full member
Activity: 166
Merit: 101
February 28, 2013, 07:58:52 PM
#19
If i loan 50k BTC @ 1% interest over the week - e.g. so must pay back 50500BTC, and sell 50k BTC at once time, it'll start a panic / bubble burst.


I would love to see you try.  Most likely, you would have to pay substantially more purchasing the 50500 BTC towards the end than you get for selling the 50000 BTC all at once at the start, and thus would lose a lot of money.  So long as rational market makers outweigh those engaging in irrational herd behaviour in the interim period.  Hint: they probably will.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
February 28, 2013, 07:54:53 PM
#18
OP is now on my ignore list.

That must hurt. Scary.
vip
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
February 28, 2013, 07:36:09 PM
#17
OP is now on my ignore list.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
February 28, 2013, 07:28:07 PM
#16
TO GOD I HOPE SO. I NEED CHEAP COINS
sr. member
Activity: 358
Merit: 250
February 28, 2013, 07:27:41 PM
#15
good luck finding someone who will lend you $1.5m - $3m worth of btc
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
February 28, 2013, 07:04:46 PM
#14
If i loan 50k BTC @ 1% interest over the week - e.g. so must pay back 50500BTC, and sell 50k BTC at once time, it'll start a panic / bubble burst.

There's enough people out there looking for "ways" to invest their BTC with viable returns.

As soon as someone makes a nice platform to short, the bubble will burst a lot quicker.  It wont take more than a sell off of say 100k BTC lent to cause a crash.  As soon as it crashes, can easily buy it back in a weeks time to cover the short.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
February 28, 2013, 12:37:00 PM
#13
I have thought of making a proof-of-concept "Casascius Bank" but where I accept no more than about 1000 BTC in total deposits.

The real goal, though, wouldn't be to become a bank.  It would be to illustrate a proof-of-concept: provably secure depositing.
I love this guy.
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
February 28, 2013, 12:35:49 PM
#12
This is possible when you can create commodities out of thin air (like "paper silver").

I have thought of making a proof-of-concept "Casascius Bank" but where I accept no more than about 1000 BTC in total deposits.

The real goal, though, wouldn't be to become a bank.  It would be to illustrate a proof-of-concept: provably secure depositing.

My "bank" would create cryptographic signatures on a daily basis proving in fact that I have every single bitcoin I say I have on deposit.  Meanwhile, I would break down that 1000 BTC into "ranges" to assert that they are owned by specific depositors (but only in a manner where the depositors themselves can identify their own funds, not the public).  For example, if I held 4 deposits for 4 people, and they were 100, 200, 300, and 400, then I would say that coins 1-100 belong to depositor 1, coins 201-400 belong to depositor 2, 401-600 and 601-1000 belong to depositors 3 and 4.  I would sign and send messages to each depositor, which would allow them to reconcile, catch, and out me if (for example), I told two people they each own the same range of coins.

The real goal would be to help the public know they really can and should demand proof that their deposits are safe and sound and not fractionally pledged, the same way "provably fair gaming" is teaching us by example that we should demand, well, provably fair games.

In turn, this would cut down the number of "paper bitcoins" in existence (or rather, I should say, "bitcoin-denominated promises", because the "paper bitcoins" I have in mind - like bitaddress.org and bip38 - are actually close to the best kind of bitcoins you can have!)

I actually thought of the same thing recently, great minds think alike   Grin , ahum .  
You could publish the holdings of each user by providing the hash of their username and then the balance that corresponds to that user. EDIT: I see piramida posted a similar idea.
Of course, your users still need to trust you not to elope with the funds, but at least you can prove you are still holding the money.
I was actually thinking of this being used by a bitcoin backed central bank, which could do micro-transactions without clogging the blockchain.  This bank would produce bitcoin-replacement currency that would be created the moment a user deposited bitcoins in a "shared address" (only possible to withdraw with approval of both parties, I don't know the proper term).
The downside is that this bank would be a single point of failure, so it is probably not a good idea until bitcoin is really mainstream and free of governmental crackdown fear.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
February 28, 2013, 12:27:56 PM
#11
I would like to remind all Canadians that http://cavirtex.com/ is an outstanding exchange I really feel i can trust them with my money ( and with more security improvements on the way!) .  Keep using cavirtex!
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001
February 28, 2013, 12:20:47 PM
#10
This idea requires cooperation between your clients which isn't realistic unless anonymous. So really, you can as well have these coin ranges in a form of a public but anonymous ledger. Anybody who knew his/her id in the ledger would be able to verify quickly that their coins are on display. No overlaps possible. No communication needed Smiley A completely transparent bank.

Yeah, not a big problem. You just sign in as user 011010100 and check it there.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
February 28, 2013, 12:02:27 PM
#9
This idea requires cooperation between your clients which isn't realistic unless anonymous. So really, you can as well have these coin ranges in a form of a public but anonymous ledger. Anybody who knew his/her id in the ledger would be able to verify quickly that their coins are on display. No overlaps possible. No communication needed Smiley A completely transparent bank.
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