The last post really made me wonder:
If I sell you a machine for $1000, and bitcoin goes up to $800, I would MUCH RATHER refund your order for $1000 than let you mine precious bitcoins with it. Could this be what these companies are going to do? Just refund our orders for fiat? It would make them 10x as much profit..
there are plenty of other models. i think the picks and shovels people (bitcoin asic companies) will most likely continue making picks and shovels for the foreseeable future. but in the longer term... instead of selling boxes to people, who have limited space in their homes and limited hvac and power (not to mention skills in keeping the systems running at full efficiency)... i think that the asic companies of today will end up being bitcoin mining service providers and hosting partners of tomorrow.. and will be selling bitcoin systems to customers, complete with full service hosting contracts.. that way their customers can buy even more systems than fit in their homes, and the asic companies get more of a continual revenue stream.
It's always more profitable to take the money and run.
Lets say Cointerra sells $10,000,000 worth of preorders, with full intentions of building them for their customers and shipping on time. Lets assume their profit margin is 200% at that time when Bitcoin is $120.
Fast forward to now when BTC is $800..
$10,000,000 of purchase orders would now be worth ~$80,000,000 if they decided to mine with the machines themselves, assuming they make ROI. We are expecting them to forfeit a profit margin of 8x profit so that they can satisfy their orders for 2x profit. This is what scares me.
They will hold onto those machines as long as is necessary to make them as filthy rich as possible, while LEGITIMATELY refunding their customers in the FIAT that their bitcoins were worth at the time. After all, could we legally be able to go after them if they have given us full refunds? It would be a better scam than BFL pulled. It would be the most profitable path for them.
The best way for them to accomplish this would be this: December is going to pass. January comes along, and they "admit" they are having technical issues with their chips, while sincerely apologizing for the shipping delays. February passes, and then March comes and they decide to finally ship their products to the few customers that are left who didn't demand refunds.
I hope this doesn't happen but I'm sure this scenario has entered the minds of those who started up Cointerra. It's a more complex version of the BFL scam.
I hope for the best, but fear the worst.
We can take the option and wait.. or we can start acting now. Start becoming friends with Cointerra employees, record conversations as I have already been doing, do what we can to protect ourselves. This may become the biggest scam in bitcoin history if we don't start NOW.