Topic: Comparing the previous bear run of Market - page 2. (Read 336 times)

Not really.
First of all we had a dead cat bounce in 2018, meaning that price went from around 20k down to 10k (50%) and in about 2 weeks went up again to 17k which was very close to the ATH. Then it dropped again to a strong support of 6kUSD (30% of the ATH)

Now we had a drop from 70k back to 40k, no bounce and another drop to 32k and now we're stuck in this 35-45k (around 40% down from ATH) range for 3 months.

This doesn't look similar to 2018, but I also think it doesn't have to. Who says bull-bear cycles have to look the same every time. If you look at the details they never are.
In 2017 we went up 10x from the previous ATH. In 2017 we only went up 3.5x. A bull cycle so much weaker from the last one is expected to produce a weaker bear market.


Why would it go to 10k? You're trying to look for similarities between previous markets, so be consistent. After reaching a new ATH in a cycle, bitcoin hasn't ever retraced below the ATH of a previous cycle.
When we went from 10k to 20k for the first time, the next bear market did not go back below 1k. After breaking 20k for the second time the lowest that I'd expect it to fall from the ATH of 70k is 20k with a possible wick below. Daily candle wicks are possible to go lower than the fair price because of low liquidity on exchanges.
10k is out of the question unless we get a black swan event like a nuclear catastrophe or a world war.

Everything would be much different and here's the factor that could really influenced it out.

-Rate of Adoption
-Rate of recognition/legalization
-Rate of peoples awareness around

or simply in talks with the demand.We cant just ignore out that as years pass by then it would really be on different levels.

The things you said are true but the market has grown than it was 4 years ago, i am also expecting a major correction but there are multiple factors that are in play we did not have in the past, including institutional investors who is holding billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrencies and if anyone of these institutional investors think about booking their profit then we will see the market going for a major correction, till now they are selling off strategically rather than dumping everything and then another factor is the global financial sector where everyone is expecting major inflation and i am curious what the investors will do during these situation, where they will go after gold or they will set a portion for the cryptocurrency market as well during those situations.

In my opinion, crypto has an unpredictable movement. We can't predict it. We are in crypto with hope, and our hope is everything. Those who lived with hope after the 2018 down trend, if they are still living with the hope that bitcoin's unpredictably unpredictable movement genre. Then obviously, they already got their answer. And I hope you understand what I want to mean. And as I already mentioned, the crypto price is unpredictable, so as normal users, we are not able to say with certainty what movement is going to happen next. Is it a bearish season coming or a bull season coming? Well, expert traders, technical analysts, or market researchers might be able to know, but it's really impossible for us. Thank you.

There's no way we can tell where the current market is going, but we have our own prediction and personally, I don't think we will ever experience the same 2018 bear market, where bitcoin and most altcoins have really dropped significantly.

Let's based on bitcoin only, last 2017 bull run, bitcoin almost hit $20k and it dropped at sub $3k, that's 85% dropped from its ATH, so let's say it will be the same trend, our ATH now is $67k, so if it will dropped by 85%, that means we will be dumping to at least $10k.

Why are we still talking about the crypto cycles and bullruns like it is ever going to be the same again? Bitcoin is no longer a novelty and an esoteric commodity that everyone will jump onto as soon as they hear about it on their christmas dinners. Almost everyone in the world has their mind made-up about Bitcoin now. There are no more noobs rushing in, no more "institutions" trying to FOMO in. The market is not mature enough to behave on fundamentals rather than pumpamentals.

This means that the price of Bitcoin will depend on the stance of governments and regulators worldwide. From the rejections that Bitcoin ETF's keep getting from SEC(Due to Tether), there isn't much of a possibility of price movement. If and when an approval comes, it'll definitely be a moment of "Selling the news". By that logic, now would be the time to "buy the rumor".

I've read some analysis that said that what if the last year was already that change OP is talking about? There was a point last year when bitcoin was under $30k.
That's probably the lowest that we've seen during this bull run and we haven't been there again. This time, it's trying to get up and was close to $30k but didn't hit that.
It's very likely that trends have changed and history won't be the same anymore, it's just about the possibility.

It absolutely looks different because it depends also on how the people responded to the market and also, the demand is quite high compared in previous years.

Like comparing the bear cycle of the market, yes it happens after the Bullrun but that seems it was missing till now. I'm not sure if that be considered as a bear market during the time that the price of Bitcoin drop below $30k coz that still high (for me). If yes, that was just a shot-time, unlike the last bear season where it takes 2 years.


https://dailyhodl.com/2022/02/23/crypto-analyst-who-nailed-2018-bear-market-bottom-says-bitcoin-btc-trading-below-30000-now-inevitable/

If you had calculated the market correctly, you may found that. The market trend and chart was changed entirely. So don't do trade based on the current chart.The cause for bear market now is due to war.So we can't able to see the pump in the market for the long run.When the war end, their will back to pump as like old price. Before that, you expected the pump. Your trading priciples should be changed. Now it's best time to inverse in the crypto and no doubt in that.

Maybe what you say is true if this year is indeed the year of the bear in the crypto market, even now the crypto market is still very low.
 I don't know how long this journey will continue and maybe the end of this year the crypto market will experience another bull run like last year.

Why not, the bear and bull is the way market works. When it comes to the crypto space its just best example of unstable and volatile market ever. So not surprised at all. In fact we should take opportunity of this and create plans for the execution of our trading. When we know its in bear trend then we must be confident enough to see the bull trend popping its doors in the future. So trade accordingly, invest accordingly. 

Expect for this market to have a bearish or bullish state of scenario which is very common for a market to have because to mind off about reality on which we cant stay up on a single path because it cant be called a

market on the first place if we do have that kind of behavior which it is a wrong belief or mindset to have.Speaking with past patterns then theres no such thing because one of the factors that it could really differ
is on the level of adoption and recognition.There might be some similar patterns or movements back in the past comparing it to now but it wont give 100% assurance that it would move on the same behavior.

I've been saying this for almost 4 months now that it makes no sense whatsoever to only compare the bitcoin bear market in 2018 without first comparing the bull market from 2014 to 2017. In fact this is what my current avatar is showing too.

With a quick look, you can clearly see that the bull market (from 2019 to 2022) is not only tiny in comparison to previous one but it appears that it may be incomplete.
The only thing we can discuss is when this cycle will be completed (reach bubble at $400k) otherwise there is no reason for seeing the same market crash as 2018 (ie. the bear market).

The blue line in the chart below shows the previous bull run and its ATH and the red line shows the current bull run and its ATH. It is obvious how tiny that is!

I do agree with you here. If you look at the pattern of rise to its ATH in 2017 and drop, it almost seems like the same only that we do understand that the price of BTC ATH in 2017 is different from the last 2021 ATH

Now we could say we have a lot more BTC awareness and adoption now so this might determine the difference in the duration this bear market might drag out instead of the maybe 4-year circle of the past.

Current and previous Bitcoin pumps were different and therefore we have different types of correction.
Previously we had lots of ICOs and many of them were scams. Therefore we had more legal uncertainty and more risks. But this time when the hype is around NFT we already got a legal basis for institutional investors and strong media support from established media shilling their NFTs.

The only worthy comparison is to check whether we had a larger bubble in 2018 (we probably did) so it could help us to predict the depth of current bear run.

Many people feel that the bear market cycle is repeating the same as in the past. There is a clear difference that the market in 2018 was not as trending as it is now, very few ecosystems are almost exclusively focused on ETH. The majority of investors are individuals.
The current market has developed more and entered a completely new turning point. Bitcoin is becoming more and more known and widely accepted, the number of investors multiplying many times, including corporations, institutions and even countries. Ecosystems are increasing and there is strong competition. So it's hard to say that a bear market until 2018 is coming.

I think it's the same but the price is different as you can see right now, the price was cut more than half from its ATH last year. It was the same from last 2018 right?
Just don't expect it to go down to less than $10,000 again because it won't gonna happen after bitcoin halving. This is its new bearish market and yes! an opportunity for you to buy if you planned to hold for so long or just sold it just after another bitcoin halving like we had last time.

I would like to follow the market trends with great interest and compare the current market price movements after the end of 2021 with previous bearish trends such as the 2018 bear market. I think the cryptocurrency bearish trend may have changed the pattern and took another dimension. . If you've been following the market trends, you've probably noticed that what's happening in the market right now is different from the 2018 downtrend, but yet another sign of a bearish move. What is your opinion