Good analysis but I think a 5 year effective lifespan is unrealistic. Maybe 3 years. Moore's law applies to FPGA. 28nm FPGA will be hitting eventually and will (once discounted) provide roughly double the performance for half the cost and half the wattage. The drop to 20nm will happen "eventually" and likely within next 5 years and will once again roughly double performance per watt and per dollar.
Assumming units retain 33% resale value after economically obsolete is also the stuff of unicorns and rainbows. They will be utterly worthless after 2 process drops have occured. The FPGA will be roughly as powerful as a $50 20nm part and consumes 4x the power.
Still your idea of ammortizing hardware to get monthly cost is a good idea I just think your assumptions are somewhat pie in the sky.
I thought about 3 years but reasoned that they should still mine just as well even if newer models do hit the market so the mining life is probably still feasible. In that case the problem is what are other miners using then and can you compete with old HW any more.
My reasoning on the resale was that older FPGA kit floating around eBay still seems to get some interest even if just because hobbyists love playing with these things to see what they learn. But ya, if too many are sold and then dumped later the market will be trash.
Looking back at previous Spartan gens the chip density always goes way up but the chip pricing is held quite high since unlike CPUs they don't have much competition. Even now you really can't find another part that competes for mining with the Spartan 6 - Altera has one that kind of comes close but not really.
In the past when Xilinx has come out with new series the old ones drop in price so I can see valid reasoning that you would want to wait for Spartan 6 to reach that drop and then buy in. I haven't checked where Spartan 6 is in it's life cycle now. The FPGA mining cards are mostly FPGA cost and as times goes by that margin for PCB and assembly should drop as dev costs get let go.