It's interesting to see how wrong the statistical models are when trying to extrapolate Covid cases, because the issue is, if people listen to some of these clowns, then the UK gets a brand new set of lockdown restrictions based false data. That's how these models work, changes on a dime, yet we put all the eggs in one basket, and hope for the best.
These 'models' are exactly what the whole global warming scam is based on just FWIW. For a scientismist, the more wrong you are, the longer your life as an 'advisor' out of academia is, and the more funding you get. You just have to make sure you are wrong in a way that favors the globalist's pet projects (like carbon taxes, economic shifts (e.g., moves to production to 'communist' China), etc.)
A dead give-away that such a scam is underway is when a 'scientist' won't release his/her code and/or data-sets. For some reason this is seen especially at certain 'educational institutions' based in London, or at least out of the U.K..
Depends which model you're talking about.
Recall back from when this fiasco began - a few of the more honest scientists produced a model (using model loosely, was more of a statistical analysis) to capture the real IFR of COVID using a closed system as the sample, the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
Back when the world was preparing for Covid and still using faulty Chinese data, the WHO predicted that the death rate for Covid was something like 5-10x higher than the true Covid death rate, because they took the confirmed cases and created a ratio of the confirmed deaths. But the problem was, the sample did not account for all confirmed covid cases, because of course, not everyone that has covid gets accounted for.
So, using WHO's figure, we had an incorrect interpretation of the lethality of Covid. If you used a closed system like a cruise ship, you can get an idea of the number of infections, the number of non infections, and most importantly, the true case fatality rate because you can test every person in the sample.
I remember this distinctively, people made fun of the idea that the Covid death rate was close to 1 percent than it was 3 or 4 percent as initially predicted. And even now, we know the death rate to be something like 0.5 percent, with striations on age.
I'm not discounting models because they actually do help, but it's not rational to utilize only a single model. And, a model is only as good as the data you feed it.