This is a common theory in analytics of the epidemiology of various diseases. The reported data tends under report the real number of cases due to a lack of testing. You combine this with the fact that the majority of coronavirus victims will be asymptomatic for a certain period while the disease is transmissible, you're looking at large swaths of the population to contract coronavirus. Still though, suggesting that half have the disease already is a bit of a stretch this early. We're not going to know the true numbers of coronavirus until months after this is over once widespread testing is enacted in countries expanding South Korea.
Yeah, the Oxford researchers said we need actual large scale testing to confirm the model:
To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.
Other preliminary studies do support the idea though: Research published last week by Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University in New York and his colleagues analysed the course of the epidemic in 375 Chinese cities between 10 January, when the epidemic took off, and 23 January, when containment measures such as travel restrictions were imposed.
The study concluded that 86 per cent of cases were “undocumented” – that is, asymptomatic or had only very mild symptoms (Science, doi.org/ggn6c2).
A project in Italy has also found many symptomless cases. When everybody was tested in a town called Vò, one of the hardest-hit in the country, 60 per cent of people who tested positive were found to have no symptoms.
That is lower than the number found in China but is in the same ballpark, says Shaman. “It might be one in 10 in some societies versus one in five in others, but generally you’re looking at about an order of magnitude more cases than have been confirmed,” he says.
At this point the corona virus has shown itself to be so infectious, that we better hope this model (or something close to it) is correct. Otherwise we can expect hospitals to be overwhelmed.
