Topic: Correction coming in the coming weeks? - page 4. (Read 11097 times)

I am not afraid of corrections again and it will be an opportunity to buy cheap. I am happy bitcoin was able to cross some significant levels and that is what matter to me. For now no matter how it goes down I will still be in profits base on the level I bought. I will keep eyes in orther to take the advantage of next corrections and buy low.

But that's the whole point

Equity and commodity markets are totally different. Basically, you are trading stocks against the dollar (or whatever) but you don't trade one stock against another (I mean directly). The cryptomarket is very different in this regard and more like currency markets. More specifically, you can trade, say, Litecoin against both Bitcoin and the dollar at the same time (as well as the latter two), which allows you to profit from small discrepancies between their prices. Indeed, it is hard to do it manually, but you can easily see bots at work doing exactly this kind of thing on exchanges like Bitfinex. If done right, it has nothing to do with gambling

Do it inn parts if you are unsure.

8k seems a bar we dont want to touch before it plumbs down and need to worry if we are getting to close.

I am an occasional day-trader in equity and commodity market. But I find Crypto Market to be very different from traditional security markets. Main reason being the random movements. In case of equities or commodities, it is much easier to predict future movements from candlesticks and charts. But when it comes to crypto markets, most of my predictions go wrong, that's why I consider it to be more a sort of gambling. However, it is my personal opinion. You may be getting better results from day-trading but that's not the case with me.
 

Only 2.5x above the last ATH? That's what seems unlikely about that scenario. Bitcoin's bull cycles are always much stronger than that. We also always seem to bottom above the previous cycle's ATH, in this case, $20K.

With that in mind, I think the next bubble will top higher than $200K and the subsequent bear market low will be at $20K+.

Do not be so sure we'll never see $6k again, this can happen today or tomorrow, or after next ATH. All you need is several thousand of BTC and coordinated dump on few largest crypto exchanges. After next ATH depending on price, correction can be up to 90% and if we take for example $50k and price after correction of 90%, we are back to $5k. You do not think it's possible? Just look what happened in 2017 / 2018, and also back in history.

New ATH at the end of this year? I do not consider it absolutely impossible, but I personally do not believe that this is the year this can be achieved.

You couldn't possibly prove that news stories are responsible. You're just employing post hoc rationalization. There are countless examples of bad news hitting the market where 40% corrections didn't occur. We recently found out that Bitfinex was USD-insolvent, Tether is not 1:1 backed, and Binance was hacked in one of the biggest exchange compromises in history. Did a 40% correction occur? No, because demand was too strong. The market didn't care.

Insisting that big bad news or manipulation is required for a completely typical price correction is akin to saying price rises in a straight line. Which is a more reasonable assumption: That corrections are a natural part of any trend? Or that every price move is caused by news or manipulation?

That depends on you, but I guess the price will continue to rise and might reach a higher price this year.
If you are here for long term and willing to wait a little longer, the price now is still good since it's below $10,000, I believe by this month, we'll go double digit.

this actually proves my point about such big drops needing a big reason to occur but only if you don't just look at the chart but also check the news. for instance the last 2017 drop which was from "September" 1 to 14 occurred because of the large scale news about China banning bitcoin whereas in reality they banned ICOs and market panicked like this thinking it is the end of the world. if you search the internet you can even find articles like from Forbes basically saying bitcoin can't go up at all without China!

the June 2017 crash was because Chinese exchanges which were closed down for months finally announced they are going to allow withdrawals and market panicked thinking there is a big dump coming so they started cashing out.

March 2017 crash was because price tried breaking the ATH of that time  multiple times and failed and basically people thought $1200 is the highest price bitcoin can ever reach

... and so on.

you see none of these are "correction", all of these are market-wide panics caused by some big underlying reason causing such crashes. right now we don't have any reason for such a big crash as OP is suggesting which is why i say it is impossible and if an actual "correction" were to happen it would be to $7500 worst case scenario and without major manipulation.

The price action of bitcoin in the  last few weeks indicated that the price is very bullish the price had already corrected and couldn't dropped below $8K an indication of strong bullish sentiment against the $6K predicted by the OP and going by the present volatility and momentum of the price the ATH will be reached within a shortest period of time.

I will not invest my next salary checks in btc if things continue to go up that fast

I think that has happened, yeah the previous price has touched $9100 and oversold has made the supply increase very high and make prices fall back to $8500, corrections like this will continue to occur during an uptrend, every trader will do it for securing profit, but certainly prices will go up again, and now will return to $9k

I took the liberty to check the charts on CMC from 2017 (too lazy to check past years). Prior to the 'August 2017' 40% correction that @exstasie mentioned, there was a massive surge in the price from $1856 to $4480 with usual sideways movement, then there was a 18% correction to $3674, from there the price took off nonstop towards $4980 until the 40% crash hit the market and the price touched sub 3k. After that, the price recovered and the rally kept going.

Very unlikely. If you were able to work out with those numbers from your previous posts that the price enters a "cycle" everytime we're in a massive uptrend (the cycle being a 40% or so correction), what makes you think the bulls aren't anticipating such correction?

I'll just have some fiat ready before the inevitable flash crash comes...Everyone should do the same.

Pull out a chart and see for yourself. The reason I chose the "2015-2017 bull market" period is because the entire period was characterized by a strong ongoing uptrend, just like now. Each of the above pullbacks was a correction to that uptrend. If we are truly entering a new bull market (i.e. this isn't just a bull trap) then the analogy should hold true.

Most people tend to be blinded by recency bias. They see the momentum behind the current bull trend and think it can't ever end. They don't recognize that we've gone through these same cycles many times before. They always think "this time is different" (that for some reason the price won't crash) but it rarely is.

Every bull run inevitably ends with a bull trap

With lots of bulls being sacrificed in the name of the bear, metaphorically speaking. And what adds insult to the injury the bulls suffer in this bloodfest is the fact that at the end of a bull run there is a smaller but even stronger bull run just before the carnage begins. For example, this time around the price first surged to over 9k (my last sell order has been triggered at 9078 dollars) and then quickly collapsed to lower 8k's. That last surge (let's call it a mad bull's run) took only a few minutes but I think it was enough to push even more bulls to the cliff and off


The market can be oversold and it can be overbought. In either case, a substantial price correction or reversal is imminent and can be triggered by virtually anything

Simply showing those numbers doesn't show the full picture. You are not showing what happened before or after those ''corrections'' was the price pumped to the moon before those huge ''corrections''? Was the price trading sideways for long periods of time, was it already crashing before, etc. These are important differences that you need to look at in order to say those corrections happen all the time for the same reason

I disagree. Take a look at some typical corrections from the 2015-2017 bull market:


It's pretty obvious that after significant price increases (sort of like price tripling since last December), large corrections occur. We don't need any catastrophic bearish news. This is just how the Bitcoin market always moves.

People always try to attach news and fundamental reasons to corrections, but the ubiquitous nature of price corrections in all markets implies it has more to do with price cycles than anything specific. Profit-taking, demand drying up, greed giving way to fear and panic, etc.

I don't know when the correction is coming exactly, but it's obviously going to surprise the bulls by its magnitude.

Going to 6k wouldn't really be a correction, it would be a crash. The last crash was good enough as a correction and I don't think we need more right now, considering the strong uptrend, we are very likely going to enter another tightening pattern on the daly chart with higher lows and lower highs but I think this time we will break it even faster since the range is already quite small (~$800)

but this "correction" you are expecting already happened!
when price shoot up to $9100 and they cashed out their profit immediately crashing it down to $8000 that was a 10% profit in a couple of hours and was the correction that we had.
right now we have a nice slow upward movement starting from before May in $5k range and it is not showing any signs of reversal or even slow down apart from the hiccups we have from time to time.

What makes you think so?

Let me guess, you think it is a losing game (read, gambling) primarily because you don't know ways of earning dough through short-term trading (both day trading and scalping). But obviously, it is just your lack of knowledge and understanding (no offense intended) which you are trying to rationalize by claiming that it is no more than gambling. In fact, it is no more gambling than long-term holding and it remains to be seen who is to reap most profits in the end


It all eventually comes down to a balance of supply and demand. But what leads to this particular balance is of interest here. That is, why exactly demand is running low or supply squeezing short