I love me some bitcoin rising as much as the next guy. But looking at the parabolic rise of the past two months, does something gotta give?
If I'm looking at the chart objectively, and not with the bias that I own a lot of Bitcoin, I would say that price is very likely gonna drop back down to 6000s soon and take a few months until it moves back up and hits $10k.
The only real reason I could see this not happening is if enough institutional money has come into the market already to prop up the price far higher than the bottom this early in the bull market. Basically a round of institutional FOMO just hit the market as Wall St realized the bull market started and a few players wanted to get a small allocation of bitcoin before the market starts really heating up in the next year or two. If this is what happened then I think either we'll see the price go sideways for a while because it'll still take a while before new retail investors start coming back in any serious numbers, or institutional FOMO will create a short bull market this year followed by a quick but full crash, and then another short bull market ensues later on next year to bring the price far higher, basically a 2013 scenario of two short parabolic bull runs with a full on 80% crash in between all within a short time period that if we zoom out now kinda just looks like a single bull market with a break in the middle.
I doubt it. It's extremely unlikely that a dump of this magnitude will occur, even if the resistance at $10k proves to be strong.
Especially when you consider that the bull market is only in its infancy stages. We could see short term corrections after each and every rally for sure, but I think that currently, the support built up by people's renewed bullish sentiments as well as the institutional investors will prove to be enough for at least $7k to be upheld.
Though, if such correction does come, then I'd certainly continue to dollar cost average and accumulate, since the long term outlook is quite clear given the halving and the institutional interest imo.