Could 2018 repeat itself? Price approaching 20K and high fees followed by crash

exstasie

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Quote from: jseverson on November 18, 2020, 10:35:37 AM

Quote from: exstasie on November 16, 2020, 02:05:11 PM

Panic selling is not just characteristic of Bitcoin. After gold's exponential rise into 2011, it crashed 46%. You think gold lacks institutional support? Cheesy

I was mostly referring to the likelihood of it happening, considering how much more volatile Bitcoin can be than gold. You raise a good point though. Now that we've climbed from ~$17k to ~$18k in 12-ish hours, I'm definitely expecting a sizable correction -- I just hope it happens sooner rather than later lol.

The way I see it, there's going to be painful corrections all the way up. And the more exponential the upside becomes, the deeper the corrections (in % terms) will be. Good examples would be the $3,000-$1,800 (June-July) and $5,000-$3,000 (September) pullbacks in 2017. A lot of people probably don't realize that a similar pullback now would put us in the low $11,000s or upper $10,000s.

With great volatility comes great pain. Tongue

jseverson

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Quote from: exstasie on November 16, 2020, 02:05:11 PM

Quote from: jseverson on November 16, 2020, 02:24:33 AM

I'm not expecting a major crash this time around because apart from Bitcoin transcending all the bubble talk that plagued the 2017 run, we actually have transparent institutional support this time around; people are much less likely to panic sell if they're seeing big brands like Paypal get in on the fun.

Panic selling is not just characteristic of Bitcoin. After gold's exponential rise into 2011, it crashed 46%. You think gold lacks institutional support? Cheesy

I was mostly referring to the likelihood of it happening, considering how much more volatile Bitcoin can be than gold. You raise a good point though. Now that we've climbed from ~$17k to ~$18k in 12-ish hours, I'm definitely expecting a sizable correction -- I just hope it happens sooner rather than later lol.

nutildah

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It would appear that fee spikes occur for 2 reasons combined:

- an increase in network demand on the network, most notably when people are moving coins on and off exchanges, and

- an unfavorable shift in hash rate or mining difficulty that makes it harder to mine blocks within 10 minutes of each other.

After both things have been occurring simultaneously for a while, a backlog of transactions develops and fees rise. One thing or the other might be tolerable but when both happen, the network overloads and fees go up. It's kind of unavoidable.

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Quote from: dunfida on November 16, 2020, 02:51:37 PM

--snip--

I already know the website that you shared and I know some even better than these. It's like, the costs get adjusted every few days and I believe we'll once again see the fees popping up higher once we start the march towards $20k. Let's just wait and watch, and if the fee remains nearby the same values as you've mentioned atm, we'd be lucky enough this time that BTC will have things maintained the way it did in its low price days.

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Quote from: Stedsm on November 16, 2020, 02:31:46 PM

Miners are not getting ^less fees^ tbh and based on the current value of BTC, it looks justifiable. When we talk about miners, it's them prioritizing the high fee transactions which is why the low fee transactions just remain in the mempool and it gets clogged, this gives even higher boost and edges it up to more higher fees than the already high ones. Even if we try to send our transaction with a low priority fee, I don't think that miners will be mining it any time soon because big players are already paying hefty amounts in fees to them.

Wait!
Are we doing the wrong thing by blaming miners? Aren't some firms intentionally paying high fees to keep the bar up and make the end user pay more fees to get a place for their transaction in a block? Think it for a second. Why would miners intentionally do that?

Dont know why they do talk about high fees yet its almost on dust amount even the price of bitcoin is clinging up to 17k

Low priority
8 sat/vB ($0.19)

Medium priority
10 sat/vB ($0.23)

High priority
11 sat/vB ($0.25)

People are way too exagerrated without even trying to check out the real numbers.
https://mempool.space/

Stedsm

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Miners are not getting ^less fees^ tbh and based on the current value of BTC, it looks justifiable. When we talk about miners, it's them prioritizing the high fee transactions which is why the low fee transactions just remain in the mempool and it gets clogged, this gives even higher boost and edges it up to more higher fees than the already high ones. Even if we try to send our transaction with a low priority fee, I don't think that miners will be mining it any time soon because big players are already paying hefty amounts in fees to them.

Wait!
Are we doing the wrong thing by blaming miners? Aren't some firms intentionally paying high fees to keep the bar up and make the end user pay more fees to get a place for their transaction in a block? Think it for a second. Why would miners intentionally do that?

exstasie

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Quote from: jseverson on November 16, 2020, 02:24:33 AM

I'm not expecting a major crash this time around because apart from Bitcoin transcending all the bubble talk that plagued the 2017 run, we actually have transparent institutional support this time around; people are much less likely to panic sell if they're seeing big brands like Paypal get in on the fun.

Panic selling is not just characteristic of Bitcoin. After gold's exponential rise into 2011, it crashed 46%. You think gold lacks institutional support? Cheesy

That's simply what happens after an exponential and speculative rise. In my experience, the faster and further an asset rises, the harder the subsequent fall usually is.

Quote from: jseverson on November 16, 2020, 02:24:33 AM

I'm actually a bit surprised that growth has been as explosive as it has, but it certainly feels a lot more sustainable than 2017's.

I wouldn't mind seeing things slow down a little. It reminds me a bit of the 2019 rally......which went too far, too fast. A nice steady rise into the previous ATH, similar to 2016, would be nice.

Oasisman

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Quote from: jseverson on November 16, 2020, 02:24:33 AM

Quote from: romero121 on November 14, 2020, 02:53:36 PM

~snip~

I'm actually a bit surprised that growth has been as explosive as it has, but it certainly feels a lot more sustainable than 2017's.

It does feel like it. Though Btc has been experiencing a short pull back a couple of times which I think It would gradually getting worse, but no it didn't, instead Btc continued to show strong signs of a consistent upward movements.
Seeing a several big names and other institutional investors coming in to the crypto market does feel like we're breaking a new ATH anytime sooner.

jseverson

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Quote from: romero121 on November 14, 2020, 02:53:36 PM

The previous bull market took place as a wave, because the growth happened all of the sudden in an unexpected moment. By the time people are into hard discussion about the price reaching $8000 & $10000. The price crossed $8000, then $10000 and keeps moving. Around $15000 it gained stability. Looking upon the growth more inflow of money happened and the same kept the market in pumping. This caused the price to cross $20000 and crash.

I mostly have the same position. I'm not expecting a major crash this time around because apart from Bitcoin transcending all the bubble talk that plagued the 2017 run, we actually have transparent institutional support this time around; people are much less likely to panic sell if they're seeing big brands like Paypal get in on the fun. If the fees had anything at all to do with the crash, I imagine it had more to do with people's transactions getting stuck, feeding more fear to the bubble anxiety, than fees actually getting more expensive.

I'm actually a bit surprised that growth has been as explosive as it has, but it certainly feels a lot more sustainable than 2017's.

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Quote from: BrewMaster on November 15, 2020, 11:23:42 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on November 15, 2020, 07:01:28 AM

Fees have nothing to do with it, I'd say, at least not when looking at such tiny samples. You could still have empty blocks and high fees of people decided they didn't want to adjust and just pay a lot of fees (and we've seen periods like that). Or you could have full blocks and low fees, with most people opting to go 2nd layer and that's a whole lot of adoption figures out of the equation.

having low fees is an indication of low usage which in turn can be an indication of low adoption or lack of mass adoption. otherwise if we had more adoption of bitcoin then obviously more people would be using bitcoin (sending more transactions) so the network would be more congested and fees keep rising up.

Not disagreeing, but again sample sizes matter and other pertinent data is more important to indicate utility. # of txs per block to me is still the major one, plus how full those blocks are, plus the number of inputs (as more people do batch) and volume in channels for LN.

Fundamentals have been increasing, in that sense adoption has as well in # of users and frequency of tx and volume -- while average fees have been decreasing thanks to efficiencies and upgrades. Spike of fees isn't because of adoption but increased demand in those smaller periods I think.

error08

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Quote from: exstasie on November 08, 2020, 05:29:55 PM

Quote from: NotATether on November 08, 2020, 12:21:33 PM

I want to know if there is a connection between people paying less fees and the price going down.

This is what I think happens. During a strong bull market or bubble, potential BTC and altcoin gains are in the 100s and 1,000s % range. Speculators don't care one bit about transaction fees. So speculators withdrawing from exchanges (and exchanges intent on guaranteeing fast withdrawals) drives network fees up exponentially.

When bitcoin on the rally, the price is driven by 'supply and demand' in the exchanges. At that time, people tend to send bitcoin to exchanges, not the other way around. Because of the fear of missing out and to avoid long time confirmation, people decide to pay higher fees, the next person pays an even higher fee, it creates a snowball effect which causes the fees to go up out of control.

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Quote from: buwaytress on November 15, 2020, 07:01:28 AM

Quote from: BITCOIN4X on November 15, 2020, 04:54:39 AM

I don't know if the low fee can be seen as evidence that adoption has increased. However, in my opinion, this low fee is due to the network condition that is not full of transaction and the market is in a sideways state. It is seen that when the bitcoin price is bullish happen suddenly, the fee will increase and will increase if the public continues to want transaction to be processed quickly.

Fees have nothing to do with it, I'd say, at least not when looking at such tiny samples. You could still have empty blocks and high fees of people decided they didn't want to adjust and just pay a lot of fees (and we've seen periods like that). Or you could have full blocks and low fees, with most people opting to go 2nd layer and that's a whole lot of adoption figures out of the equation.

having low fees is an indication of low usage which in turn can be an indication of low adoption or lack of mass adoption. otherwise if we had more adoption of bitcoin then obviously more people would be using bitcoin (sending more transactions) so the network would be more congested and fees keep rising up.

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Quote from: barbara44 on November 14, 2020, 01:15:38 PM

Last time we crashed wasn't because of transaction fee's only, it was also because we had no reason left to buy bitcoin and that meant people got out and the more people got out meant more price went down as well. So, at the end of the day, we are not anywhere near 2018 and we are building something totally different.

What I'm thinking is that the same thing can repeat itself again this time but maybe not too deep like 2018. In December 2017, when it was ATH, yes many felt it has sailed the highest that season and being the end of the year , the fear engulfed many to cash out. And that made price begin to drop slowly.
This time also, there are many reason that price can still crash. This year is much of fear factor of bad economy because of covid-19 and now price gets higher than expectation. So almost the same scene in 2017/18 , the difference however is halving year in 2020.

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Quote from: BITCOIN4X on November 15, 2020, 04:54:39 AM

I don't know if the low fee can be seen as evidence that adoption has increased. However, in my opinion, this low fee is due to the network condition that is not full of transaction and the market is in a sideways state. It is seen that when the bitcoin price is bullish happen suddenly, the fee will increase and will increase if the public continues to want transaction to be processed quickly.

Fees have nothing to do with it, I'd say, at least not when looking at such tiny samples. You could still have empty blocks and high fees of people decided they didn't want to adjust and just pay a lot of fees (and we've seen periods like that). Or you could have full blocks and low fees, with most people opting to go 2nd layer and that's a whole lot of adoption figures out of the equation.

BITCOIN4X

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on November 14, 2020, 02:00:08 PM

~snip
Probably that is the sign of having massive adoption.

I don't know if the low fee can be seen as evidence that adoption has increased. However, in my opinion, this low fee is due to the network condition that is not full of transaction and the market is in a sideways state. It is seen that when the bitcoin price is bullish happen suddenly, the fee will increase and will increase if the public continues to want transaction to be processed quickly.

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Quote from: Twinkledoe on November 13, 2020, 05:59:23 PM

Quote from: stomachgrowls on November 13, 2020, 03:59:53 PM

Quote from: wxa7115 on November 13, 2020, 01:50:04 PM

Quote from: bitbunnny on November 10, 2020, 12:38:11 PM

Although the situation seems pretty much the same like in 2017 and 2018 circumstances are quite different. Although the price is on the rise we are still far away from 20k. Yes, the transaction fees are increasing too but to my opinion that is mainly due to price increase itself and the enlarged number of transactions.
I'm not saying that 20k is impossible but still it's s very lomg road to go.

The main problem that we will have in order to reach a new ATH will be that many traders will think ahead and know that surpassing that level at the first opportunity we have after 3 years is going to be very unlikely so they are going to sell close or at that level creating a strong reduction on the price, so I think we are going to see a very fierce battle between the bears and the bulls for the control of the market.

It seems to me there is enough strength on the market to go above the previous ATH since the growth that we have been experimenting has been very slow which means there is a lot of support and once we breakthrough the 20k level all bets will be off about how high the price can go.

I highly believe that to those people who had bought wayback in peak price or ATH had already long time sell off their bags to believe that we wont be seeing another chance to hit that level again

but it seems those people had already made out some mistake.Yeah, it did take a while yet its been 3 years after that event where we do able to hit the peak and now we are gradually reaching it once again.

Good thing for those who held for that long and sorry for those who sell on loss.

I believe also that most of those who bought at ATH way back in 2017, already cashed out. Because most of them have no strong foundation in crypto, they just bought it because of the hype. But for those few that patiently waited, they are now seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. And this time, the rise is not owed to fud or hype, but real adoption among users, companies and institutions.

The previous bull market took place as a wave, because the growth happened all of the sudden in an unexpected moment. By the time people are into hard discussion about the price reaching $8000 & $10000. The price crossed $8000, then $10000 and keeps moving. Around $15000 it gained stability. Looking upon the growth more inflow of money happened and the same kept the market in pumping. This caused the price to cross $20000 and crash.

This time the growth is happening in a steady manner without much of major crash in between. Today the market has crashed down to $16000, and this looks there is lack of stability above $16000.

DoublerHunter

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Quote from: BITCOIN4X on November 14, 2020, 01:40:36 PM

~snip~
We all don't know what will happen to bitcoin in the future, but I really believe that the increased adoption and also investor confidence in bitcoin will go a long way toward increasing its price. Let's hope that price volatility will continue to provide benefit for those who are good at it because on the other hand volatility can also cause losses for them.

^ Technically, I also believed what I am quoted above. It possible that bitcoin will repeat or grow up beyond what we expected, if we look into a different angle, bitcoin adoption was a great help. Through the different good news that we heard this year, bitcoin has increased the price and I think that event will happen again and again. Nevertheless, when it comes to fees I am surprised yesterday that the fees are very low even though it is not yet weekend. As we observed the bitcoin fee will low when the weekend comes but last week, it shows stay low for the whole week. Probably that is the sign of having massive adoption.

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on November 14, 2020, 09:07:37 AM

The bullish scenario that can reach $ 20k if it is very possible, as the market can sometimes repeat events.

It should be noted that we are approaching December, and December is a month where the price of Bitcoin is usually very likely to rise, there is more demand, that is, people trade more and use bitcoin a lot, which, is good, if there is more demand, the supply decreases and the price increases. It's a great opportunity, the best for now is hodl.

On the other hand, when this happens, it is logical that the Bitcoin rates increase, if transfers are made with little fee it would take a long time for the transaction to arrive, some people have waited weeks for the transaction to be completed, I think the best thing is to do the transaction with a normal fee.

Repetition of event can still occur and it is not impossible. But it all depend on how much people are willing to buy bitcoin in the market because increasing demand is a sign that the price will go up. December 2017 many investor and newcomer entered the crypto world where they brought several suitcases filled with fresh money to invest. But slowly these people stepped back and began to fortify themselves from greed and manage better strategies such as being less affected by ICO and IEO project.

We all don't know what will happen to bitcoin in the future, but I really believe that the increased adoption and also investor confidence in bitcoin will go a long way toward increasing its price. Let's hope that price volatility will continue to provide benefit for those who are good at it because on the other hand volatility can also cause losses for them.

barbara44

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Last time we crashed wasn't because of transaction fee's only, it was also because we had no reason left to buy bitcoin and that meant people got out and the more people got out meant more price went down as well. So, at the end of the day, we are not anywhere near 2018 and we are building something totally different.

The reason why 2017 peak happened was because BCH was created that summer which promised people free money if they got BCH, and that meant everyone and their grandmother bought bitcoin in order to get free BCH, at the time price was around 1k dollars and what was promised was around 200 dollars, obviously everyone bought and made it over 3k by that time and that momentum just kept growing. This time around it is organic and nothing related to one news.

LUCKMCFLY

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The bullish scenario that can reach $ 20k if it is very possible, as the market can sometimes repeat events.

It should be noted that we are approaching December, and December is a month where the price of Bitcoin is usually very likely to rise, there is more demand, that is, people trade more and use bitcoin a lot, which, is good, if there is more demand, the supply decreases and the price increases. It's a great opportunity, the best for now is hodl.

On the other hand, when this happens, it is logical that the Bitcoin rates increase, if transfers are made with little fee it would take a long time for the transaction to arrive, some people have waited weeks for the transaction to be completed, I think the best thing is to do the transaction with a normal fee.

Topic: Could 2018 repeat itself? Price approaching 20K and high fees followed by crash (Read 392 times)