It all started when Bitcoin stabilized at 12K almost a month ago, we were having 20 sats/vbyte feed before then, then when we approached 13K after the PayPal announcement, the fees spiked to 100 sats/vbyte or somewhere around that. The state of the network today is that while it’s around $14K and $15K, the fees are going to be around 150-200 sats/vbyte.
These fees are much less compared to 2018 levels, but as we approach 2017/2018’s ATH, what is going to prevent us from having those huge fees (I don’t know; somewhere between 400 and 900 sats/vbyte) a second time? Is is that more people are going to send their transactions with a low priority fee to avoid them, and miners will ultimately get less transaction rewards from their blocks as well as a decrease in transactions per block, could all cause the price to crash a second time, which will revert to low fees having normal priority?
I want to know if there is a connection between people paying less fees and the price going down.
Anything can happen, however an exact repetition of the events that transpired at the end of 2017 and at the beginning of 2018 is unlikely, we know there is some level of correlation between the price and how busy is the network, but at the end what the price will do will depend on the demand of bitcoin and nothing more.
During the 2017 bull run there were several points in which it seemed as if the price could not go up anymore and there was a reduction on the price and many believed a crash was coming, and it did, just not at the level they were predicting, it is going to be very difficult for bitcoin to surpass the 20k level since psychologically many traders as soon as we get closer to it will begin to sell thinking a crash is coming, but that is where demand will prove to be critical, if the demand can still absorb all the coins being sold by those that will sell their coins during the next weeks then we are bound to see a new ATH, but if not then the price will have to come to a more stable position, like the 12k or 13k level, so as you can see this does not necessarily means that a crash is coming but we cannot discard it either.
