Whether this is the truth or not, it is something we can not control. The fact is:
- The having is coming
- The ETF decisions are around the corner
- We are in a Christmas rally
- People are excited
I am more optimistic with halving and its effects for Bitcoin price, a new bull run than ETF decisions. Bitcoin Spot ETF applications can be approved or refused by SEC. and approvals will be a big booster for Bitcoin to take off to the moon. In an opposite decision, SEC. refuse all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, it won't be a disaster or the end for Bitcoin and it won't be a barrier for its bull run.
By history of past cycles, I believe Bitcoin will still have its bull run even we won't have any Bitcoin Spot ETF approval in 2024 or 2025. I don't worry too much about SEC.'s decisions.
Yes, I mostly agree with you over a 0.5-1.5 year term. As historically, the halving has caused positive upside for Bitcoin in the months after the halving has occurred.
However, I'm talking about before April, we still have 4 months left.
What everyone forgets is that while whales and institutions move the market, they aren't able to just market sell or market buy the amount that they would like to. They do it over longer periods, building orders over time on either end, or causing supply/demand through external means.
Let's say hypothetically that institutions were aware of their plan to submit ETF applications at the start of this year at 15k. Don't you think that they would accumulate, in lead up to their news? Then, further capitalize from the gains made from their news and bullishness over the last 6 months following initial news?
Now from here, do you think they will just enjoy the ride upward? Or, create some orders for profit?
No, now the difficult us offloading what has been accumulated and rebuying cheaper.
The best way to do that is to let retail buyers buy into sell orders after the ETF news, taking profit at the highest possible prices from inexperienced market buyers...then, dump it and reaccumulate as these inexperienced investors sell.
Not to mention, imagine all of those who have long positions for exchanges to liquidate...and the short opportunity available as well, for those in the know.
All theoretical but it"s what people least expect, and generally that's how I see things go in this market. Nothing is as straightforward as just up.