Could this be a bullish sign as halving approaches? - page 5.

TheUltraElite

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

Quote from: qomariah95 on January 01, 2020, 10:13:22 AM

Prediction is not always right and not always wrong.

True that but they all dont understand this and tend to take it for granted.

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To be sure when approaching halving or halving has happened, certainly not immediately bitcoin suddenly increased. Because in my opinion, after halving, at least 1-2 months we will see the movement of bitcoin. Is it going to trend to increase or decrease altogether. We will see later.

It may not be just 1-2 months, we may not see any price movements at all. This halving related price rise is in everyone's minds and so they will buy and stock up coins before the halving making the market rise before the halving. Then they will sell at the inflated price and make a crash. Thats what I have seen happening previously and this will repeat.

So with the halving I am expecting a drop in price which will again take time to recover.

Darooghe

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I think mining hardware's performance grows exponentially every few months. that means the hashrate needed per BTC mined tends to infinity. Miners need to constantly increase the hashrate just to stay in the game, regardless of what the price does. the fact that miners keep staying competitive regardless of the price means miners are long on BTC, and expect the price to increase in the long term. also Miners only get a percentage of mined bitcoins per day, equal to the percentage of hashrate it contributes to the network per day. for a miner to increase it's profits, it needs to increase it's mining hashrate.

qomariah95

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Prediction is not always right and not always wrong. To be sure when approaching halving or halving has happened, certainly not immediately bitcoin suddenly increased. Because in my opinion, after halving, at least 1-2 months we will see the movement of bitcoin. Is it going to trend to increase or decrease altogether. We will see later.

d5000

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Quote from: pooya87 on January 01, 2020, 12:45:19 AM

actually hashrate does indicate adoption but not the way OP wants. it is showing the past not the future. basically it works like this:
adoption > price rise > mining becomes more profitable > more miners come > hashrate rises.

Agree, but there are different types of adoption with a different influence in price.

Adoption of Bitcoin as a means to save money ("hodl") tends to rise the price, as it decreases the amount of BTC available on the markets.
Adoption "as a currency" tends to stabilize the price on a high level, as it adds supply and demand (thicker order books), so it leads basically to more liquidity. We're still not seeing that in a massive way.
Adoption as a means of speculation (people trying to buy low and sell high) is actually much more popular than HODLing. It tends to create price volatility in a cyclic manner, with sharp FOMO-fueled increases followed by panic sells. That's the reason why we see such drastic price changes.

What does that mean for hashrate? First of all, again, it is to expect that hashrate increases 50% per year if the price is stable because of Moore's Law as I explained here. HODLing would definitively increase hashrate more than that, because of the price increase, but it's actually less popular than it is thought commonly. Adoption "as a currency" would lead to a slightly over-average increase because it decreases the risk of miners and increases also transaction fees. Speculative adoption leads to increases and then stagnation or even temporary decreases, like in 2018.

bitvalak

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There is no 100% prediction that will guarantee that, but patterns that occur before always show positive things when halving occurs.
I do not expect hundreds of percent bullish will occur, I just hope that bitcoin can be legally accepted for daily use transactions to make it easier for everyone. Yes, although it will take a long process to go in that direction.

Hypnosis00

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Quote from: mk4 on December 31, 2019, 10:32:25 AM

Quote from: DeathAngel on December 31, 2019, 08:37:08 AM

I don’t know but we don’t have to worry, the halving is fast approaching & the price should start to slowly rise as we get towards it.

Don't get too excited. It could definitely easily go the other way around. The halving could or might be priced in already, with the buyers anticipating a price rise sometime near the halving. And guess what could happen if the price didn't rise? They might dump their coins.

As always in the end, no one knows and time will tell.

That is usually will happen. For sometimes people are so impatient, they always wanting instant which is truly difficult in crypto.
Not wondering if they'll dump easily their coins they'll always be hopeless and don't care what they've done, only the save their funds and let go.

royalfestus

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Bitcoin rally had never been predictable by so many until now and that's why I worry on this rally speculation all over the media. I used to think Hashrate increase would backdate halving but this assumption had been downplayed recently. The rally speculation is not only on hashrate and we know it, the space is larger and we could expect a difficult time for the whale's with manipulation. It is too late to distract and silence the news of the rally, we have a lot of pointer to it and we know if delayed other coin may enjoy the negative sentiment.

KnightElite

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Quote from: arimamib on January 01, 2020, 04:27:27 AM

Quote from: AbuBhakar on January 01, 2020, 03:39:37 AM

Quote from: Sadlife on January 01, 2020, 01:08:30 AM

We also have bakkt for institutional investors and the bitcoin dominance went back to 68% this maybe the perfect time to buy while its still in a cheap price especially when bitcoin halving is near. I also buy bitcoin from time to time even with little investment its better than nothing, but this is all just in the realm of possibilities its to early to be bullish unless we see some confirmation in TA charts.

There still few months left to determine the bullishness of the prices, as we see there are many factors that may affect the price of bitcoin even halving approaches. We hope to experience bull run before halving happens so if we can buy btc as of now,better buy to ride also in the upcoming bull run.

the factors that influence bitcoin for bullrun are indeed many, because the more factors that are collected then it can be used as further research to analyze. if really from the research results provide good information then we can start investing, and prepare funds for the next bullrun.

Halving is just a factor, we cannot fully expect that the bull run will come after the halving. For fundamentalist, halving is good and it can boost the peice of the bitcoin but for me as technical analyst; I still waiting on what will happen to the price. If the price breakout after the halving then I will add my position because it is a good sign that there are now willing buyers.

pealr12

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What will you expect when you heard halving is so close to happen, just what happened last halving 2016 where bitcoin price soars , bullish throughout the year of 2017 where bitcoin got its NEW ATH, im feeling it will happen again this 2020.

dothebeats

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Drawing lines in the sand using vague indicators which proved inconsistent over time is never a good practice. We have seen the hashrates come, the prices go extremely low yet still remain to be in tune and in sync with market movements all around--or sometimes go against the flow in fhe most unexpected turn of events. Either way, 2019 hasn't paved any straight and smooth ways for price developments to be that good. Then again, we'll see in the first few weeks of 2020 whether there's something to keep an eye on, else it's just another stagnant Q1 for all.

arimamib

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Quote from: AbuBhakar on January 01, 2020, 03:39:37 AM

Quote from: Sadlife on January 01, 2020, 01:08:30 AM

We also have bakkt for institutional investors and the bitcoin dominance went back to 68% this maybe the perfect time to buy while its still in a cheap price especially when bitcoin halving is near. I also buy bitcoin from time to time even with little investment its better than nothing, but this is all just in the realm of possibilities its to early to be bullish unless we see some confirmation in TA charts.

There still few months left to determine the bullishness of the prices, as we see there are many factors that may affect the price of bitcoin even halving approaches. We hope to experience bull run before halving happens so if we can buy btc as of now,better buy to ride also in the upcoming bull run.

the factors that influence bitcoin for bullrun are indeed many, because the more factors that are collected then it can be used as further research to analyze. if really from the research results provide good information then we can start investing, and prepare funds for the next bullrun.

TitanGEL

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Quote from: TheUltraElite on January 01, 2020, 04:02:38 AM

Quote from: mohdk52 on December 31, 2019, 11:27:53 AM

The price should rise soon.It is unlikely to fall below $7,000.So the bulls are back in business.

While it is great to be optimistic about the price we also should prepare for the drop if it happens. We have options trading being put options for 6k mark now that some self-proclaimed analysts are pointing it to be the next support level. The price is being stagnant at 7k levels does not mean it would not go up. So its better to assume that either of the two can happen but whether a bullish or bearish sign, it cannot be confirmed.

May be some manipulation in this new year because everyone wants the price to increase so a false demand situation is being created. So take such news with a grain of salt.

We should learn from other's mistakes, we cannot just believe in someones claims and we cannot follow it without thinking. There are analyst that are so dumb thag they keep predicting non sense things. It seems that they do not know what they are talking about, I do not believe to someones predictions about the price of bitcoin after halving because they are just guessing the price after all. There are also self proclaimed analysts and crypto enthusiasts so be careful on who we will listen.

TheUltraElite

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

Quote from: mohdk52 on December 31, 2019, 11:27:53 AM

The price should rise soon.It is unlikely to fall below $7,000.So the bulls are back in business.

While it is great to be optimistic about the price we also should prepare for the drop if it happens. We have options trading being put options for 6k mark now that some self-proclaimed analysts are pointing it to be the next support level. The price is being stagnant at 7k levels does not mean it would not go up. So its better to assume that either of the two can happen but whether a bullish or bearish sign, it cannot be confirmed.

May be some manipulation in this new year because everyone wants the price to increase so a false demand situation is being created. So take such news with a grain of salt.

AbuBhakar

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Quote from: Sadlife on January 01, 2020, 01:08:30 AM

We also have bakkt for institutional investors and the bitcoin dominance went back to 68% this maybe the perfect time to buy while its still in a cheap price especially when bitcoin halving is near. I also buy bitcoin from time to time even with little investment its better than nothing, but this is all just in the realm of possibilities its to early to be bullish unless we see some confirmation in TA charts.

There still few months left to determine the bullishness of the prices, as we see there are many factors that may affect the price of bitcoin even halving approaches. We hope to experience bull run before halving happens so if we can buy btc as of now,better buy to ride also in the upcoming bull run.

Eugenar

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For me, the real impact of the halving will occur after the halving happens, because right from this moment even if we know the market price will significantly increase further, it is still very hard to believe and invest because there's still no assurance with the profits. But right after the halving happens, there we could start to spy on market and observe its trend. I am pretty sure when whales approaches it many people will follow as it is the real indication of a bullish gain that we could experience this 2020.

owengtam09

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Quote from: cheezcarls on December 31, 2019, 07:29:53 AM

Price fluctuations may be an indicator of investor sentiment. Hashrate, though, is often seen as the better market number to watch in order to truly evaluate Bitcoin adoption, and recent hashrate statistics indicate that adoption continues to grow.

By all accounts, Bitcoin has had quite a tumultuous year. After starting the year more than 80% down from its all-time high, BTC recovered significantly before once again losing several thousands of dollars in value.

Source link here

For me, I think this could be another "unsure" prediction or analysis.

Although the hashrate of Bitcoin has increased significantly, this isn't guaranteed that Bitcoin will be having a big bull run when halving draws near. Remember that there are still scammers out there like PlusToken, lurking from the shadows, waiting to strike when BTC moons, then they dump a lot of their assets to bring the market down again.

I can't be sure if the increased hashrate of Bitcoin would really become "bullish" because the market today is so unpredictable. What do you guys think?

Bitcoin is really unpredictable so no one knows when it will go rise up again and as I observe with bitcoin all news that is coming up are all fake, maybe the best thing we can do is to wait for halving and let's see what happens.

Tolosi

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I think that the 2020 halving will be the last relevant one. Future halvings will produce insignificant number of bitcoin in relation to existing bitcoins. I predict that price will stabilize in 15.000 to 25.000 range after the 2020 halving. The today’s hodlers will be the main source of bitcoins on the market then.

mk4

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Quote from: kingcolex on December 31, 2019, 11:48:32 AM

Quote from: moviebuff777 on December 31, 2019, 09:36:20 AM

The halving has traditionally been a point at which the price has started a bull run. Usually the price of Bitcoin will start to increase a couple of months prior to the halving. Since the halving will be in mid May, we could see a price increase begin in March.

Exactly it is almost always priced in by the time the actual halvening happens, the price won't wait until the actual halvening happens.

Yea sure, but let's not forget that "past performance is no guarantee of future results". Market sentiment in the past halving are VERY different than how people currently see bitcoin. Let's also not forget that the 2017 bull run left a very bad taste in a lot of people's mouths; and a lot other factors that could potentially make us not have a price rise in the next halving.

jostorres

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Quote from: cheezcarls on December 31, 2019, 07:29:53 AM

For me, I think this could be another "unsure" prediction or analysis.

Although the hashrate of Bitcoin has increased significantly, this isn't guaranteed that Bitcoin will be having a big bull run when halving draws near. Remember that there are still scammers out there like PlusToken, lurking from the shadows, waiting to strike when BTC moons, then they dump a lot of their assets to bring the market down again.

I can't be sure if the increased hashrate of Bitcoin would really become "bullish" because the market today is so unpredictable. What do you guys think?

Well, you already said what it is – an unsure prediction. I’m really fed up with these predictions and I have stopped looking at them but just Hodling my coins till there is an increase. I have also seen a prediction yesterday on Coindesk that there might not be any increase before or after the halving. The author claimed that the next halving might end up different from the other halving we have seen in the past years.

I don’t really know if this is going to be true, everyone has their own opinion, though I’m not the type with the negative thought , I have a strong faith that there is going to be an increase anytime soon.

Sadlife

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We also have bakkt for institutional investors and the bitcoin dominance went back to 68% this maybe the perfect time to buy while its still in a cheap price especially when bitcoin halving is near. I also buy bitcoin from time to time even with little investment its better than nothing, but this is all just in the realm of possibilities its to early to be bullish unless we see some confirmation in TA charts.

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