Topic: Could this be a bullish sign as halving approaches? - page 6. (Read 1126 times)

It really is unpredictable, people investing and those who are promoting should only remember one thing, ignorant of how the market functions will get you in big trouble and also ignorant of not knowing how and where to invest will end you up with nothing, it's your money, it's your key and it's your fortune, so be sure to read a lot and get a hold of what's happening.

actually hashrate does indicate adoption but not the way OP wants. it is showing the past not the future. basically it works like this:
adoption > price rise > mining becomes more profitable > more miners come > hashrate rises.
all these ">" signs show a one way relationship that go in the direction of the sign. in other words first adoption happens and then price rises and eventually it all leads to more miners and higher hashrate with a delay. so when we see a big rise in hashrate it means there has been a big adoption in the recent past.

Hash rates doesn't really equate to adoption as what you are saying. More miners doesn't mean more users of the currency. True adoption lies on the people's interest to use the currency as a mode of payment, alternative to banking and fiat systems. There's more to price action than hash rates alone, and I think looking at a single method of TA is unreliable than combining it with other indicators and FAs, market sentiment and overall demand and future potential.

Hash rate doesn't indicate adoption. I would say it just indicates miner sentiment, which is one subset of investor sentiment. Miners appear to be bullish; whether they are correct about that remains to be seen.

There are better metrics for adoption -- blockchain/wallet activity, fiat inflows to exchanges, or even price itself since price discovery is a reflection of supply and demand.

lol. you are wrong on both parts
hashrate has never been an indication of adoption. of course since it is rising after the price rises you can use it for that matter but it wouldn't make any sense.
secondly hashrate has not have any growth for the past 3 months at least. it has been stable just as price is staying in a fixed range.

Exactly it is almost always priced in by the time the actual halvening happens, the price won't wait until the actual halvening happens.

Yes, its not like there are 10 years of data and 3 previous halvings already.

Nothing important will occur during the halving, maybe before, and certainly after. Bitcoin production is dwindling to the point it simply won't matter how little of them are produced anymore. I have said before that most bitcoins that there ever will are already in the market and this is a fact.

Don't think mining is fundamental for bitcoin's price, the more time passes the less influence it has. Some people seem to believe the cost of producing a bitcoin is somehow related, but it isn't. Value of bitcoin is determined mainly by the usefulness factor by those who decide to own it. As time passes, the actual production cost has less and less of an influence to it.

You say its unpredictable but in my opinion its fundamental price won't deviate much from the logarithmic curve in all its lifetime. The earlier the stage, the faster it rises, the later the stage the slower. But never back down, because production is limited while the number of people that find it useful can only increase until a point (ie. world's population).

The price should rise soon.It is unlikely to fall below $7,000.So the bulls are back in business.

Don't get too excited. It could definitely easily go the other way around. The halving could or might be priced in already, with the buyers anticipating a price rise sometime near the halving. And guess what could happen if the price didn't rise? They might dump their coins.

As always in the end, no one knows and time will tell.

I would not count on that really but certainly the approach of bitcoin halving is definitely going to cause at least a slight rise in the price of bitcoin. The reason why most people share similar sentiments that halvings bring about an increase in the price of bitcoin is what has been happening in the history. Hopefully we can see a huge spike in the price of bitcoin as mass adoption of bitcoin and news about halving nears.

There are several strange assumptions in the article. One of them is that "growing hashrate is a sign of adoption".

This isn't the case in my opinion. Growing hashrate is caused by price/profitability expectations. But miners don't care about "adoption". They care only about their income, and this is currently not driven by transaction fees (which are about 1/20 of the regular block reward).

Another assumption that isn't necessarily true:
More users mean also more sellers. In fact, "hodling" is based on the expectation of future usage. In a "mature" Bitcoin market, hodling will decrease and not increase. This could even mean the price could go down a bit, but what I would expect is relative price stability. The circulation speed would be higher, and thus also liquidity, which means that order books are always full on both sides and neither panic nor FOMO will reach the levels we've seen in the past.

Growing hashrate is also only natural because it's an indicator for technical progress. From Moore's Law you could deduct approximately, that if the Bitcoin price is stable, hashrate should grow about ~50% per year - if it's less, then miners are making losses (e.g. if the mining market overheated).

We see that in 2018 this was the case for some time: while there was a strong increase at the start of the year (driven by the still very high Bitcoin prices), later hashrate decreased again, and at the end of the year it was only slightly above the values for April.

In 2019, however, price increased, at $7000 it is currently approximately two times  the value of January ($3500). Thus, the expected hash rate increase isn't 50% but up to 200% (price * 2 + 50%). This would mean that the "expected value" for today (December 31) is 35 EH/s (January hashrate minimum) * 3 = 105 EH/s. We're currently slightly lower than that (at ~95 EH/s), so miners are almost exactly following the expectations we can deduct out of Moore's law.

So no, hashrate isn't a reliable indicator of a future bull run. It is more based on past price movements. Miners normally can't predict the price better than the market can.

Hashrate increase is somehow similar to mining difficulty increase. If the Bitcoin price decreases some weak miners might pull their rigs off the grid to protect their capital from draining out while more financially resourceful entities/miners will just buy more powerful and efficient equipment so I guess you could correlate a BTC price positive appreciation with an increase in hashrate - which could indicate that miners are bullish. There are many different nuances in which you can interpret this indicator though.

There's a general understanding that price rises around halving of a coin and that has held true almost all of the time.
But as we've seen many of the price fluctuation and factors involved, it's getting us more confused and the price more unpredictable. There are many whales that wants to increase the price of bitcoin to get some profit while some might be interested in keeping the price low. And as almost all of them would be ready to dump their coin on price rise, the price trend could get more volatile.

The halving has traditionally been a point at which the price has started a bull run. Usually the price of Bitcoin will start to increase a couple of months prior to the halving. Since the halving will be in mid May, we could see a price increase begin in March.

Halving is approximately an year ago from today. Right now, you shouldn't connect any happening with the halving. Many ups and downs gonna come along with various different news before the halving's fomo actually kicks in.
And this increase in hash rate doesn't suggest anything. There is no other news or happening to support the technicals. So I won't go with the indicators unless it gets supported by other technicals or news.

Hashrate increase has nothing to do with bullrun.Yes, it do signifies increase of miners in the network but doesnt mean the demand do rise up too.
We know that price will vary on the demand which is on buyers or investors of btc.Good thing here is that miners still consider on mining out but we wont
know on what would be their views or behaviors after the halving occurs.

an increased hash might increase prices plus halving that will happen soon, slowly maybe bitcoin and other cryptocurrency are starting to recover next year, if the problem with our scammers the people in this forum have reminded it to beginners here and people out there also need to make a lot of writing and spread it to all crypto news media, at least so that people understand and want to stay away from scammer projects like plustoken and others, nothing gets rich quick in this bitcoin especially in the crypto world, everything needs to be a process and be adopters then get profit

The increase in hash rate says a lot in terms of the technical side. So to see how it affects Bitcoin, we have to wait and see. In terms of the current signs, it could be, an increase in hash rate automatically says a lot more people are giving power to the Bitcoin blockchain, and that's a good sign. It seems like more miners are probably using their rigs for Bitcoin and nothing else. I hope they find a great alternative to the power-hungry machines that they have.

It's not a sure thing, but it could lead others to use Bitcoin more because of the support of the miners giving more computational power to the technology.

Time will tell how halving will affect Bitcoin. Unfortunately, this is the most unpredictable asset and one cannot say how the market will behave. Let's just wait for halving

logically it will increase the price of bitcoin, but the fact is no one can guess with certainty the state of the market, Hopefully the price can really go up in 2020, crypto holders certainly hope so too, according to my analysis if the price is able to penetrate 8000 it is likely that prices will experience a sharp increase, but if it is not able to penetrate this number, it is likely that the downtrend still dominates the market.