Topic: CRASH! - page 10. (Read 24589 times)

I feel the need to elaborate a bit on this one.

My paradigm is the following: I have faith in the future of bitcoins for as long as SHA-xxx cannot be broken and the bitcoin limit of <21mio remains intact!

Current price volatility is based on speculation on the perceived future success of the bitcoin system, and people who amessed great sums of bitcoins willingness to get rid of them en mass without consideration for market dynamics and price stabilization. If all these "cash out only" type of early investors decided to dump all their coins, all it took were a few thousand dedicated believers with a few thousand $ in hand each, to stabilize the BTC price at around $1 (through their dedication serving as decentralized central bank, thus giving them the much argued about lacking fundamental value). If many of them decide to hold onto their bitcoins, the price will automatically increase as less bitcoins remain in circulation (avg price = total systemic value/circulation quantity). Any use of bitcoins beyond those few thousand geeks causes the BTC price to rise and bottom out at way above $1. The more people enter the market, the higher the amount of bitcoins held out of circulation.

The more money is in the hands of the many, the less power single "big player" market participants with the single intend to influence or crash the market possess.

I may not be able to call the bottom of the market, but by not selling my bitcoins I refuse to help lower the price and don't submit to the risk of perhaps failing to jump back on the bandwaggon in time of its inevitably recurrent advance. Thus, holding onto my bitcoins is a viable choice even in the face and expectation of still ongoing price devaluations.
Plus - the more people think and act like me, the less downside risks and incentives to sell in order to buy back at lower prices exists.

0.01 to 32, that's more than a factor... oh wait!

Let me guess; because Bitcoin is a fascinating technology and fascinating technologies are fun. The genie is out of the barn for crypto-currencies, and it can only become better. If you haven't invested big bucks in it it doesn't matter. The spare-time would have been wasted on other, less ground-breaking things anyway.

? What market are you talking about? Or is this some kind of joke about the inactivity and value at 80 cent back in March? Or maybe the ArtForz sale day to 50 cent in early April is what you mean? I don't understand.

Anyways, the current pattern of media hype followed by decline, also sheer amount of actual money in the game, has not happened before in Bitcoin country.


@RogerR, tvbcof:

I'm very much enjoying the chaos ride ever since the 30 USD hike. But why would you take further losses if you guess a crash likely now? You both talk as if you see the crash scenario very likely -- if there are more people like that, another price hike becomes quite improbable. Yet hold at all cost?

You are not alone.  In an odd way I sort of feel the same now that you mention it.  Win, lose, or draw, it's an interesting ride...and I never bet more than I can afford to lose.  I guess for me it seems like the most promising thing so far to have a chance of shaking the truly corrupt monetary systems which surround us.  If not, I hope that the bitcoin project can at least help carve a trail for something which can...and if not, the couple grand I waste will likely evaporate anyway.

@Vandroiy - I was just gonna ask whether I was the only one who thinks a crashing market has a thing of a beauty. Must be masochistic, but there's just something about chaotic entropy and people with too many BTCs at hand eagerly trying to get rid of them. This being said, I'm a firm believer and hold my coints till the worthless end.

@GeniuSxBoY: In fact, I sold some and might get put options for the money elsewhere... maybe I'm just a price drop maniac?

No... seriously, I think you guys have a p > 60% crash configuration there. Overconfidence-only market with declining public interest and considerable running costs (miners, exchange fees). If you're holding BTC for speculation, you need a good bit of luck now.

But what am I talking about, we're already halfway into a crash. 32 to <16, that's more than a factor 2, yet people fear further drops.

Unless they send you a notice like I got this week:

charlie, Jun-30 15:20 (JST):
Hello,
It seems like liberty reserve is having a delay on the withdraw and could take up to 3 - 5 days for your funds to show on your account
balance. But your transfer has been processed.
Thanks,
MtGox.com Team
________________________________________

Everyone is selling their Bitcoins to prop up the DOW!

Put all of your money into FRNs!!!

I was correct, now how to choose a bottom? 

Bitcoin has been going down all week.


The US stock market has been rallying all week.


Coincidence?

They've got half or no fees so many are probably counting on buying back at lower prices.

Why are so many sellers giving in at these lower levels?

BUY and hold (or use) if the price goes down BUY some more and hold (or use)

I had to hurry up and cancel a lot of buy orders.  drop, drop, drop baby!

Its happening again, oh no, this truly is the end for bitcoin, i can see it going right to zero this time

Hmmm, might be time...

Alert!
The Bulls fought hard, but the market just clearly broke down below 16.
The price move is not dramatic, yet, but the sellers are lowering the "ask" price quickly.

I was kind of wondering if that would work, thanks for answering the question for me.

Mtgox keeps tradehill bounded, tradehill does not keep mtgox bounded.  Also, mtgox has the biggest players.