Topic: Crash!! - page 2. (Read 10594 times)

Ok everyone just step back now y'all hear?



 

Grab what?

if you just want to buy at lower rates, i suggest look into here http://cc2bitcoin.com/ grab them while you can, i don't think they will keep those rates low for long

we ain't crashing

Credit cards will be billed for the equivalent number of dollars based on the exchange rate at the time the order is processed

$6.15

I petitioned Zhoutong to put in a simple calculator for exactly that purpose.

If you want to do it yourself, just multiply the number of bitcoins by their purchase value to get their total value, then subtract how much you need to lose from your margin balance to hit your maintenance amount then divide by the number of coins to get the new price. So in this case, the liquidation price = (20*2.79-30.42+2.23)/20 or $1.38.

If you want to figure out how much more you can buy to stay safe above 2.50 at the current price. We will say $3. You just need to figure that each bitcoin loses $0.5 on the way down from $3 to $2.50.  So since your current net value is $34 and your maintenance is $2. You can lose $32 before being liquidated. At $0.5 per coin, that translates to about 64 more coins at $3 each before you get liquidated at $2.50... not taking into account the change in maintenance... so closer to 60 actually.

I petitioned Zhoutong to put in a simple calculator for exactly that purpose.

If you want to do it yourself, just multiply the number of bitcoins by their purchase value to get their total value, then subtract how much you need to lose from your margin balance to hit your maintenance amount then divide by the number of coins to get the new price. So in this case, the liquidation price = (20*2.79-30.42+2.23)/20 or $1.38.

If you want to figure out how much more you can buy to stay safe above 2.50 at the current price. We will say $3. You just need to figure that each bitcoin loses $0.5 on the way down from $3 to $2.50.  So since your current net value is $34 and your maintenance is $2. You can lose $32 before being liquidated. At $0.5 per coin, that translates to about 64 more coins at $3 each before you get liquidated at $2.50... not taking into account the change in maintenance... so closer to 60 actually.

You need to look at your maintenance.  If your net value drops below that, I think you get liquidated.

Totally OT, I know, but I have a bitcoinica-related question maybe someone here can answer:

This is what my account looks like:

Margin Balance   $30.42
Tradable Balance   $29.49
Leverage   2.5 : 1
Unrealized P/L   $3.70
Net Value?   $34.13
Maintenance?   $2.23

I have this position:

BTCUSD   20.0   $2.7914   $3.70    6.634%

I hope that's readable.

Now for the question: I understand I can trade more than the $30 I put into the account initially (margin trading).

What I'm not sure about is how to calculate the risk of being zhoutonged.

As I understand, if the rate drops (in my case) low enough, bitcoinica will auto-liquidate my position and I'll be left with no money, right?

How can I calculate how low it can drop without margin call?

I'd buy more BTC at this point, but maybe this is already too risky? I'd like to allow the rate to drop down to $2.50. Am I beyond that point?

I'm playing with an alternate count based on S3052's comments. It does not necessarily change message, but does open up the possibility of further ugly corrective patterns (triangles, zig-zags, flats, oh my!), whereas the fifth impulsive wave of the final c should have been definitive.

...

I'd much prefer to discuss this on the Elliott thread where I'm otherwise talking to myself in four pages. But yes, it is all Elliott, but not Fibonacci.

I count three magenta waves up from 19 November. Between the magenta bars thus far represents either a corrective fourth or a first regressive impulse. Above the magenta bar ($3.14) essentially confirms a fifth impulse (with caveat) and below magenta ($2.5) invalidates the entire count.

The green bar represents the fourth of the magenta third. And the gold bar represents the fourth of the green fifth. The fall from $3.14 bounced beautifully within the gold-green overlap and continued a wee bit over the suggested green fourth. It is no accident that $2.9 was a major bid wall, support, resistance, and bottom of a suggested fourth. Perhaps the manipulator is an Elliott occultist as well.

I count five waves from $3.14 to $2.61 (though they are not clean). If we are to expect a correction before continuing the rally, the only valid labeling is a zig-zag. The dark channel represents a possibility. The higher 'b' gets the flatter the zig-zag and the more likely 'c' ends safely within the lower magenta bar, thus preserving optimistic hopes that the major reversal has already begun.

I discuss this further in bloody detail (with brilliant calls and embarrassing failures) in real-time.


I like to think 'realist', but I've been calling a December reversal leading to triple digit heights since early northern summer. This could hardly be called a pessimistic chart, at least not in retrospect: