Topic: Crash!! - page 3. (Read 10594 times)

I'd much prefer to discuss this on the Elliott thread where I'm otherwise talking to myself in four pages. But yes, it is all Elliott, but not Fibonacci.

I count three magenta waves up from 19 November. Between the magenta bars thus far represents either a corrective fourth or a first regressive impulse. Above the magenta bar ($3.14) essentially confirms a fifth impulse (with caveat) and below magenta ($2.5) invalidates the entire count.

The green bar represents the fourth of the magenta third. And the gold bar represents the fourth of the green fifth. The fall from $3.14 bounced beautifully within the gold-green overlap and continued a wee bit over the suggested green fourth. It is no accident that $2.9 was a major bid wall, support, resistance, and bottom of a suggested fourth. Perhaps the manipulator is an Elliott occultist as well.

I count five waves from $3.14 to $2.61 (though they are not clean). If we are to expect a correction before continuing the rally, the only valid labeling is a zig-zag. The dark channel represents a possibility. The higher 'b' gets the flatter the zig-zag and the more likely 'c' ends safely within the lower magenta bar, thus preserving optimistic hopes that the major reversal has already begun.

I discuss this further in bloody detail (with brilliant calls and embarrassing failures) in real-time.


I like to think 'realist', but I've been calling a December reversal leading to triple digit heights since early northern summer. This could hardly be called a pessimistic chart, at least not in retrospect:

Those price bands look like they're based on historical price support/resistance, not on Elliott theory.

Wow Netrin, you've been quite the pessimist up till recently..  Its good to see, and nice chart..

Can you tell me how you arrive at the colour bands ?  Are these formed from interpreting elliot waves like it seems your showing ?

I believe the price will continue correcting to above $2.5. Below that and the rally will have been invalidated.

If the price clears above $3.14 before correcting, then I expect it will climb shy of $4 before correcting the first wave of a major reversal beginning last month. If that optimistic scenario comes to pass (though I'm currently betting against it), the third wave rally after the correction (to the current iv price area) could launch bitcoin up to heights we haven't seen for months.

I expect we'll have a clear picture after this week.

So is it too late to sell now?
:|

But are the buy and sell @ market rates also far apart when there is volatility?

I love it when the spread is really close. You can buy and only be in the red a few cents for a short time if you bought the right way. I think I remember even once trading and being instantly in green.

Bitcoinica has a larger spread when there's volatility, and the longer a price holds (and the larger the walls on the sides of it), the smaller the spread becomes. At least, that's what it looks like to me.

Well right now if I bought at market at mtgox I'd be buying at: 2.98991 and on bitcoinica: 3.0072

Maybe that's the thing about bitcoinica. Normally when you trade at a profit you just about never buy at market. Always put in extreme buy and sell orders and hope they get filled.
Bitcoinica seems to be @ market + the spread. The lag is probably the lag in the orderbook.

So my question would be does bitcoinica actually place orders on mtgox or just fill them?

I have also noticed that the spreads are awfully large lately. I wonder if Bitcoinica is trying to increase its take.

My opinion is that we are going down from here, but I thought that at the last $3 peak as well and at the smaller peaks before that.

So do we think the market has hit the bottom yet or we've still got some major sells coming up?

My prediction was a return to dollar parity and we got $1.98 which was close but no cigar.

I almost made $4 but the market moved against me when I went to liquidate. But I do remember I could have made more if I had of bought around $2.60

Even with perfect trades, I do not believe it would have been possible to have gained on any two bitcoinica orders in the past 24 hours.

One thing in bitcoinica's favour though is that there are no fees. I signed up with a CFD trader so I could make money shorting other tradables while bitcoin is flat and I did well today on a short position, however, I noticed that if I cash out I still lose on the entry and exit fee unless I'm willing to risk a larger amount on each trade.

*edit: Actually I did make about $8 which is pretty good for risking $50 but I am on the intro rate. Once I graduate to the full rate that profit would have been wiped twice over. That is why I will look for long term slopes to ride.

It might be inefficient, but not useless. Bitcoin provides advantages as a middleman between far more currencies than you've mentioned. As one example, bitcoin offers most of the advantages of paypal, lacks many of the disadvantages, and offers unique advantages of its own. My only complaint about bitcoin really, is that so few people use them today. I suspect that will soon change.

Perhaps you mean that bitcoin-exclusive shops make no sense if it's only a conversion/transmission protocol? Maybe but I'm not so sure of your abundant use of absolutes: 'completely useless', 'only', 'no sense'...

Do you even know what an economy is? Also, the most high volume business Bitcoin has is most likely Silk Road. Why? Because they it offers them an advantage.

"Building services and shops" is completely useless as long as Bitcoin only serves as a middleman as in in USD => BTC => USD.

This creates useless overhead and makes no sense. If the businesses decided to use a certain percentage of BTC funds to pay expenses, however, it would be a different story.

Yes your "positions" are unified into one position.  This is frustrating for me because I could swear when I was using Oanda I could have multiple positions, so I could see my stair step trades without have to look back at my order history.

Yes bitcoinica has guaranteed liquidity of upto 50 BTC. The price you see is for anything <= 50 BTC, if you trade more with a market order there is a few seconds delay in which the price is able to change (usually against you).

"blocks of 50 BTC"??

Yes, you only ever have one position, if you sell and are long you are liquidating and verse visa, until you reach zero after which point you go in the other direction. So in theory it is possible to trade even double your margin. (Highly risky but can be effective if you have sufficient power for the moment to kickstart a market movement.)

The base price is based upon all your orders you made based sum of prices/blocks of 50 btc.