Topic: Crash!!!! - page 16. (Read 34079 times)

edit the data.

1. treat successive drawdowns as a single drawdown, but not different ones.

The largest 20 crashes on mtgox trading history.
as of 2012-6-22

During every "crash", the daily performance should be always negative. "Duration days" mean how many days that the mtgox price drop without a daily bounce. For example, at the end of 2011-10-19, the mtgox exchange rate lose 60.3% from 2011-10-12, without a single daily positive daily performance.

the drawdowns are caculated in natural logarithm, drawdown=ln(p_t/p₀)

use only the "close price" only, which ignored the highest and lowest price during the trading days.

anyone please make it a table on this forum? I do not know how to use it.

#   End of the crash   Drawdowns   Durations   Pre-crash close price   Post-crash close price
1   2011-6-11   -70.3%   3    29.60     14.65
2   2010-11-9   -61.9%   3    0.39     0.21
3   2011-10-19   -60.3%   7    4.15     2.27
4   2011-8-6   -49.5%   2    10.75     6.55
5   2010-7-22   -45.0%   1    0.08     0.05
6   2011-9-10   -40.9%   3    7.19     4.77
7   2011-8-3   -37.9%   4    13.53     9.26
8   2011-5-20   -36.3%   4    8.03     5.59
9   2011-11-14   -32.7%   3    3.08     2.22
10   2012-2-16   -32.5%   6    5.91     4.27
11   2010-11-30   -31.2%   4    0.28     0.21
12   2010-12-5   -29.4%   3    0.26     0.19
13   2011-8-26   -29.1%   3    10.94     8.18
14   2011-9-17   -24.2%   5    6.08     4.77
15   2011-9-6   -23.0%   4    8.64     6.86
16   2011-10-8   -22.8%   7    5.03     4.01
17   2010-11-16   -22.4%   2    0.28     0.22
18   2012-1-17   -22.3%   2    7.00     5.60
19   2011-11-18   -22.2%   2    2.56     2.05
20   2011-10-24   -22.0%   1    3.17     2.55

Something like this.

Hm.. There were always a gigher high and higher lows. To speculate on a head and shoulder its to early. To speculate on this there needs to be a low at 6 and a high at 6.5. Before its to early to speculate on this.

That looks like what could become a classical Shoulder Head Shoulder formation, even with a small version of itself in the head section. Just watch out for the indicators! (lower highs and lower lows). If it does unfold like this the best opportunity to get of board is on top of the last shoulder. In my example a final drop to the 5-5.2$ area would be the result.

It does look messed up
What about compiling a graph that show the largest crashes as a bar chart by total or relative drawdown and that has on top of each bar a pie wich indicates the duration of the crash. A full pie means 7 days (the highest duration) and an empty pie means 0 days.
Do you get me?

something got messed up in the above charts... the timepoints don't add up but whatever.

Some of these greedy Bitcoinica fucks are getting 50% of their funds back. Predictable. 

Here you go:

there was some miss leading on the last report. some successive drawdowns were treated as different drawdowns, that's not appropriate, just as shown by bitcoinbitcoin113, from 10/17/2011 to 10/19/2011.

new report is here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.981973

I have nothing to hedge and I don't short for fun.

Time to get out your shorts...  Or you are hopping on the short-bus?

I've never posted in the Crash!!!!-thread before... let's see what happens next...

Meaningless. Japanese yen is worth about a penny, therefore it is automatically a bad investment?

He was talking about this thread.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/so-i-was-checking-my-referral-logs-80126

I'd say the price is holding quite well.

On the bright side, Bitcoin will be getting some more exposure. 

Whew!, for a second I was worried

Someone better start buying or this baby is gonna be at 2 again..

I'm sure this is true.  This is why there will be QE3 and once QE3 happens, next year I guess, then there will be a long slow rise in gold to over $2000.

i wouldn't be so sure about that.  the general risk asset selloff is going to be huge especially after what's happened to JPM tonite.  yes, the USD is going to go up and UST's a bit.  but traders HATE being in simple cash, as in USD's, and they're increasingly hating UST's.  there's no return and they are in fact risky. 

i'm pretty sure the smart investors, especially the one's who've been in gold/silver, will take a flier on digital cash (Bitcoin) that has huge upside potential.  after all, it's worth 5 times one USD after just 3.5 yrs of existence whereas all other fiat currencies are close to parity.

+1