Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet. - page 2.

FormerlyAnonymous

newbie

Activity: 37

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If this wager is denominated in BTC, it has a weird bull bias: if the bulls win, then BTCUSD did not crash (as hard) but if the bears win, it did. It stands to reason that nobody wants the bet if the spread offers a standard expectation-based odds structure (I'm too lazy to check, apparently) -- outcomes where the bears win will correlate strongly with devaluation of the prize.

Then again, for all I know, this was accounted for. Just thought it was kinda amusing. What would be ideal for the bears is: get appropriate, expected-inflation-adjusted odds, and win. Then right after the bet is won, be wrong, and get a huge correction (say, to BTCUSD=10). Roll Eyes

Gerken

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: Fiyasko on October 08, 2011, 09:50:52 AM

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=98

Owned, Not a single person is willing to bet that it would crash that low that fast

You lose.

Or the more likely explanation is that most bitcoin x have ended up as scams so nobody wants to use them. Kinda like mooncoin is suggested on the first page. Roll Eyes

Fiyasko

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1001

Okey Dokey Lokey

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=98

Owned, Not a single person is willing to bet that it would crash that low that fast

You lose.

worldinacoin

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Bitcoin prices broke $4, this is getting bearish, hopefully the crash to $2 won't be a reality

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: d.james on October 01, 2011, 03:23:52 AM

for me i'm getting more coins everyday so that justifies the price drop a little.

Truth. People scoff at current bitcoin mining earnings, but for me it's still a 10% monthly (or 100% annual) ROI on the hardware I use to produce it. Still insanely profitable. If I was unemployed I'd be looking into expanding mining operations at current levels.

d.james

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Firstbits: 12pqwk

for me i'm getting more coins everyday so that justifies the price drop a little.

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

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Quote from: fivebells on September 25, 2011, 07:29:11 AM

Yes, it's not going to go down to $1 without quite a few miners throwing in the towel...

Quite a few countries are already priced out of mining. This forum tends to have a North American centric opinion of mining costs and many people think everyone gets power at 10c/kWh or less.

With the current price and no affordable FPGA solution available (ROI 1+ years right now) I don't see more miners entering the fray. The difficulty setting has been falling steadily. If bitcoin stumbles to $4 and lower and stays there then even more people will wonder whether it's worth mining. Difficulty decreases again, and so on. Just because mining costs more than $1 now and forms a support floor beneath bitcoin's current price doesn't mean the same will apply in 6 months time.

And remember, a speculator doesn't care what you paid to mine that bitcoin: they are just there to extract profit.

Nagle

legendary

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Quote from: worldinacoin on September 25, 2011, 07:25:11 AM

It takes quite a bit of electricity and equipment investment to generate 1 Bitcoin, the costs should already exceed USD1. Bitcoin has developed quite well, though still on an extremely small scale, but at parity, I would feel the upside potential outweigh the risks quite a lot to warrant a gamble.

Just because the manufacturing cost exceeds some value doesn't mean it has that value to a buyer.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Yes, it's not going to go down to $1 without quite a few miners throwing in the towel...

worldinacoin

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

It takes quite a bit of electricity and equipment investment to generate 1 Bitcoin, the costs should already exceed USD1. Bitcoin has developed quite well, though still on an extremely small scale, but at parity, I would feel the upside potential outweigh the risks quite a lot to warrant a gamble.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Interesting, wisdomtool. That is about where I would be comfortable getting in, too. But it's just based on a gut feeling. What is your reasoning?

worldinacoin

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

If it goes to parity, I would use all my spare cash to exchange everything into bitcoins.

zby

legendary

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Merit: 1001

Quote from: wobber on September 11, 2011, 10:04:22 AM

I bet on $100 that bitcoin will crash to $2. I am certain because everytime it crashed, it first went up 1-1.5 dollars. Today happened the same, from 4.7 to 6 or more.

Nice way of hedging.

Minsc

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: maxll on September 23, 2011, 06:40:11 AM

Crash to $2-3-4 is a myth. Roll Eyes

It will crash there only after first getting stuck in the $6s or higher, tricking bearish investors thinking it will never go down again and $6 is the new low. Only after getting all their money will it finally jump down to a new low.

Oh and at the start of October it will likely go down as it does normally at the start of a month.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Remember, it's just speculation. I have zero evidence that this is going on. I'm putting it out there as much to see whether it stands up to scrutiny as anything else.

kjlimo

legendary

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Quote from: payb.tc on September 23, 2011, 08:05:40 AM

Quote from: fivebells on September 23, 2011, 07:59:49 AM

if your goal is simply a anonymous medium of exchange, the electricity cost of producing bitcoins would simply be a way of laundering money through the power company.

is that like, reverse laundering?

i thought the point of laundering was to get money out of the black market, not into it.

what you describe sounds like a way for the power company to launder dirty money.

must be time for me to pull out the 'office space' dvd.

"To conceal the source through and intermediary" Oh God we're screwed...

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

It's a way of effecting an economic transaction while leaving no trace of a financial connection between the participants. Whether you want to call that laundering or not is beside the point.

payb.tc

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: fivebells on September 23, 2011, 07:59:49 AM

if your goal is simply a anonymous medium of exchange, the electricity cost of producing bitcoins would simply be a way of laundering money through the power company.

is that like, reverse laundering?

i thought the point of laundering was to get money out of the black market, not into it.

what you describe sounds like a way for the power company to launder dirty money.

must be time for me to pull out the 'office space' dvd.

fivebells

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

As far as I can tell, there is no fundamental economic basis for the
current exchange rate. There would need to be a compelling "medium of
exchange" usecase for bitcoin increasing widespread demand for it.
Absent such a usecase, I would expect the price drop to continue over
the medium term.

This is just speculation, but it seems like "medium of exchange for
illegal economic activity" was a compelling usecase, particularly since
if you mine bitcoins through tor, they presumably start life completely
anonymously. But if this were the primary economic use for bitcoins at
the moment, it would have an unstoppable inflationary effect on bitcoins
relative to conventional currency, because most of the participants
would want to change their bitcoins out for conventional money as soon
as the exchange had been effected. It would even be likely to drive the
exchange-rate/mining-difficulty ratio to completely unprofitable levels
for legitimate miners, because if your goal is simply a anonymous medium
of exchange, the electricity cost of producing bitcoins would simply be
a way of laundering money through the power company. At any rate, this
usecase doesn't seem to have led to sufficiently wide adoption to
increase demand for bitcoins.

caston

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: NeonLicht on September 23, 2011, 07:50:47 AM

Quote from: caston on September 23, 2011, 07:05:02 AM

There's a lot of resistance at $5 but the trend does appear to be heading towards parity.

1:1?

Yes that's right 1 USD.

Topic: Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet. - page 2. (Read 10635 times)