Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 101.

Queeq

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Quote from: chessnut on October 31, 2014, 02:30:17 AM

Quote from: Queeq on October 31, 2014, 02:01:43 AM

A, which is ((i)) on my chart, could be considered leading diagonal. Otherwise C is too long both in time and price:

One of the reasons I think C is not done is because we have not entered the territory of wave iv(III), so imo the price does have room to move. If you look at the western charts in particularly an impulsive count is very difficult to count for i/a of B/I, and the retrace of hypothetical wave A is very shallow and weak compared to wave A. I would expect a sharper downwards impulse if it were the beginning of wave V.

I can see where you are coming from though, I'm keeping an eye on it.

Yes, I agree that the whole retracement for wave IV is pretty small (lower than 0.382), however previous III is extended so it must be fine. Moreover, this supposed IV is ended around the lower degree 4.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGmWJMXO/

chessnut

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Quote from: Queeq on October 31, 2014, 02:01:43 AM

A, which is ((i)) on my chart, could be considered leading diagonal. Otherwise C is too long both in time and price:

One of the reasons I think C is not done is because we have not entered the territory of wave iv(III), so imo the price does have room to move. If you look at the western charts in particularly an impulsive count is very difficult to count for i/a of B/I, and the retrace of hypothetical wave A is very shallow and weak compared to wave A. I would expect a sharper downwards impulse if it were the beginning of wave V.

I can see where you are coming from though, I'm keeping an eye on it.

Queeq

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A, which is ((i)) on my chart, could be considered leading diagonal. Otherwise C is too long both in time and price:

chessnut

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Quote from: Queeq on October 31, 2014, 01:23:07 AM

Why is your B impulsive? It clearly subdivides to 5 waves with extended 3rd.

B cant be considered impulsive as illustrated here and above. it takes the form of abc with c wave impulsive.

Queeq

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Quote from: chessnut on October 30, 2014, 02:08:05 PM

With a stop loss at 2045, this breakout trade will be the one of the most robust, high confidence and best risk/reward trades I could offer to you as an EW analyst.

This is a medium term hold position, we are targeting cerca 3000yuan, $470

Im posting this in a hurry, price is climbing like nuts.... Please dont panick. it is better to buy on a dip than to chase the price, even if you have to buy in higher. You should still be able to pick up some bitcoin below 2100.

Why is your B impulsive? It clearly subdivides to 5 waves with extended 3rd.

chessnut

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Quote from: Alonzo Ewing on October 30, 2014, 06:14:23 PM

Dumb question: why can't the recent peak at 2400 on Oct 13 be the top of wave "iv" instead of being "a" as you've labeled it?

Good question,

There are two strong reasons why wave IV is not complete.

Reason #1, the hypothetical wave IV did not retrace enough to satisfy a fair fib retracement, we expect a retrace to the wave iv(III) as is a strong rule. nore did it span long enough in time for fair proportion to the greater system.

Reason #2, The fall from 2500 yuan started with a non impulsive abc. If you like there is a very weak argument we had a diminished v in china to form an impulse, but the western exchanges are a total mess and can only represent non impulsive behaviour. there is also a very important trend line which was broken suggesting that pric action was not impulsive.

Alonzo Ewing

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Dumb question: why can't the recent peak at 2400 on Oct 13 be the top of wave "iv" instead of being "a" as you've labeled it?

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 30, 2014, 05:56:41 PM

Can you describe EW price action further?

that is a big question

https://encrypted.google.com/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&lpg=PA52&pg=PA53#v=onepage&q&f=false

or would you like this case in particular? tbh, its not worth an example on 5min charts. just follow the thread, its all I do.

Raystonn

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Can you describe EW price action further?

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 30, 2014, 05:52:33 PM

You picked the bottom of the correction due to the bullish divergence on volume and MACD?

no just EW price action/volume and fibs. thats all I use.

Raystonn

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You picked the bottom of the correction due to the bullish divergence on volume and MACD?

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 30, 2014, 05:40:09 PM

I mean if you look on a 2-hour chart you see the price up to the first minor consolidation that looks a great deal like the initial rise on the 5-minute chart. If that's the case we might expect the 2-hour chart to start shooting up again around 10:30pm EDT. Strap in...

Yeah you are right..... but sometimes its best to keep ones expectations lower. better be surprised than dissapointed, we have moved a lot already.

Good place to buy here. looks like we have completed the correction. stops at 2050. expect honey badger next 2 weeks ok, no flip flopping positions or you will lose your spot.

Raystonn

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I mean if you look on a 2-hour chart you see the price up to the first minor consolidation that looks a great deal like the initial rise on the 5-minute chart. If that's the case we might expect the 2-hour chart to start shooting up again around 10:30pm EDT. Strap in...

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 30, 2014, 05:31:43 PM

Extending into a 2-hour chart fractal copy of the original shoot up on the 5-minute chart?

wha? is this what I sound like? lol. you would like a 2hr chart? hasnt changed much.

Raystonn

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Extending into a 2-hour chart fractal copy of the original shoot up on the 5-minute chart?

chessnut

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This just seems to be extending into a larger fractal. Dont chase this, be patient. that was a big move, lots of panic, margin calls etc. we need to take a long break and take a breath. Look to buy anything at 2100 or below, stop 2050, hold tight. The Best thing I have to compare what this is going to be like over the next weeks is the may rally from 440-680.

sidhujag

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great call!

chessnut

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snap up those bitcoins at 2090 if you didnt buy the breakout. stoploss at 2050.

JustAnotherSheep

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Finally, impulse Grin

chessnut

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With a stop loss at 2045, this breakout trade will be the one of the most robust, high confidence and best risk/reward trades I could offer to you as an EW analyst.

This is a medium term hold position, we are targeting cerca 3000yuan, $470

Im posting this in a hurry, price is climbing like nuts.... Please dont panick. it is better to buy on a dip than to chase the price, even if you have to buy in higher. You should still be able to pick up some bitcoin below 2100.

Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 101. (Read 355110 times)