Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 103.

chessnut

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Quote from: notme on October 29, 2014, 10:18:09 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 05:43:12 AM

Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me.

Well then you are clearly new to Bitcoin. In past ramps up, there has been triangle after triangle all breaking to the upside for months without terminating the trend. Maybe that has changed now that the market is much larger, but I'd be careful having such certainty about any pattern.

the demands of ew triangles are different to those simple wedges you are referring to. I am not new to bitcoin.

windjc

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Quote from: podyx on October 29, 2014, 03:27:41 AM

windjc, you think we will go sub 300 again??

Yes.

notme

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Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 05:43:12 AM

Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me.

Well then you are clearly new to Bitcoin. In past ramps up, there has been triangle after triangle all breaking to the upside for months without terminating the trend. Maybe that has changed now that the market is much larger, but I'd be careful having such certainty about any pattern.

seleme

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Duelbits.com

Quote from: madmat on October 29, 2014, 07:58:21 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 07:38:44 AM

Quote from: madmat on October 29, 2014, 07:26:54 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 05:43:12 AM

If we break local lows and this wave v gets rolling, we can expect to find a bottom in a fairly short amount of time. Ill be tracking the waves live. This bottom is worth trying to pick out because we have a very strong count. Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me. I will track the waves and we might be presented with a leading signal, or a breakout signal at the bottom to buy. Targets are 320ish in the west (profit target, not buy target!) and 2020ish in china.

I am not sure to get this. You mean 320 is a target to buy to close short trades, but it is not good to buy for a long trade ?

yeah you see the difference is that when we open a margin long we are exposing ourselves to risk of margin call. When we close a short there is no such risk. at the very bottom we usually dont have enough evidence to take this kind of risk. there is a very small chance that is not worth taking that we will get margin called straight away in the volatility and lose everything. Best to wait for hard evidence of the bottom before opening a margin position. Note that I very rarely try to pick bottoms to open margin long unless I have a strong count and a strong bigger picture. Closing margin positions however.... its worth picking the tops and bottoms for those because we can take the small risk of missing out on a few dollars of profit, take the quick, easy money, and save ourselves the time and stress of chasing corrections. It has also got to do with your mentality. when you are in profit, you are calm and will make good decisions. Picking the bottom to open margin long is VERY BALLSY and requires more practise.

Thanks a lot, it is really clear for me now.
So, i placed an order for buying at 250€ (318$), to have an opportunity to buy at a very low price it it happens, and otherwise I will wait for a strong buying signal.
Keep updating this thread. I am listening.

Well, if you are waiting for strong buying signal than forget about that very low at 318 unless it is very strong signal there.

chessnut

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Moving our stops down to 2130 in china or around 349 in the west.

madmat

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Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 07:38:44 AM

Quote from: madmat on October 29, 2014, 07:26:54 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 05:43:12 AM

If we break local lows and this wave v gets rolling, we can expect to find a bottom in a fairly short amount of time. Ill be tracking the waves live. This bottom is worth trying to pick out because we have a very strong count. Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me. I will track the waves and we might be presented with a leading signal, or a breakout signal at the bottom to buy. Targets are 320ish in the west (profit target, not buy target!) and 2020ish in china.

I am not sure to get this. You mean 320 is a target to buy to close short trades, but it is not good to buy for a long trade ?

yeah you see the difference is that when we open a margin long we are exposing ourselves to risk of margin call. When we close a short there is no such risk. at the very bottom we usually dont have enough evidence to take this kind of risk. there is a very small chance that is not worth taking that we will get margin called straight away in the volatility and lose everything. Best to wait for hard evidence of the bottom before opening a margin position. Note that I very rarely try to pick bottoms to open margin long unless I have a strong count and a strong bigger picture. Closing margin positions however.... its worth picking the tops and bottoms for those because we can take the small risk of missing out on a few dollars of profit, take the quick, easy money, and save ourselves the time and stress of chasing corrections. It has also got to do with your mentality. when you are in profit, you are calm and will make good decisions. Picking the bottom to open margin long is VERY BALLSY and requires more practise.

Thanks a lot, it is really clear for me now.
So, i placed an order for buying at 250€ (318$), to have an opportunity to buy at a very low price it it happens, and otherwise I will wait for a strong buying signal.
Keep updating this thread. I am listening.

chessnut

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Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: madmat on October 29, 2014, 07:26:54 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 05:43:12 AM

If we break local lows and this wave v gets rolling, we can expect to find a bottom in a fairly short amount of time. Ill be tracking the waves live. This bottom is worth trying to pick out because we have a very strong count. Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me. I will track the waves and we might be presented with a leading signal, or a breakout signal at the bottom to buy. Targets are 320ish in the west (profit target, not buy target!) and 2020ish in china.

I am not sure to get this. You mean 320 is a target to buy to close short trades, but it is not good to buy for a long trade ?

yeah you see the difference is that when we open a margin long we are exposing ourselves to risk of margin call. When we close a short there is no such risk. at the very bottom we usually dont have enough evidence to take this kind of risk. there is a very small chance that is not worth taking that we will get margin called straight away in the volatility and lose everything. Best to wait for hard evidence of the bottom before opening a margin position. Note that I very rarely try to pick bottoms to open margin long unless I have a strong count and a strong bigger picture. Closing margin positions however.... its worth picking the tops and bottoms for those because we can take the small risk of missing out on a few dollars of profit, take the quick, easy money, and save ourselves the time and stress of chasing corrections. It has also got to do with your mentality. when you are in profit, you are calm and will make good decisions. Picking the bottom to open margin long is VERY BALLSY and requires more practise.

madmat

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Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 05:43:12 AM

If we break local lows and this wave v gets rolling, we can expect to find a bottom in a fairly short amount of time. Ill be tracking the waves live. This bottom is worth trying to pick out because we have a very strong count. Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me. I will track the waves and we might be presented with a leading signal, or a breakout signal at the bottom to buy. Targets are 320ish in the west (profit target, not buy target!) and 2020ish in china.

I am not sure to get this. You mean 320 is a target to buy to close short trades, but it is not good to buy for a long trade ?

chessnut

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Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

If we break local lows and this wave v gets rolling, we can expect to find a bottom in a fairly short amount of time. Ill be tracking the waves live. This bottom is worth trying to pick out because we have a very strong count. Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me. I will track the waves and we might be presented with a leading signal, or a breakout signal at the bottom to buy. Targets are 320ish in the west (profit target, not buy target!) and 2020ish in china.

podyx

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windjc, you think we will go sub 300 again??

madmat

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Quote from: windjc on October 29, 2014, 03:14:33 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 02:22:22 AM

Quote from: windjc on October 29, 2014, 01:53:27 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 28, 2014, 09:43:05 PM

The triangle is playing out to the downside. This means we will likely have a great buy in the low 20xx range.

No, we have a C of IV to play out first. Then we can buy back in the 200s. We aren't going straight there. And its going to take another 3-5 weeks for this IV to play out anyway.

No reason to assume that the market is in any rush to complete these waves.

you are confused, Im tracking termination of c(B) not C. 20xx not 20x.

Gotcha. Don't understand your 20x or 20xx

You are talking about $, he is talking about Yuans!

windjc

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Quote from: chessnut on October 29, 2014, 02:22:22 AM

Quote from: windjc on October 29, 2014, 01:53:27 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 28, 2014, 09:43:05 PM

The triangle is playing out to the downside. This means we will likely have a great buy in the low 20xx range.

No, we have a C of IV to play out first. Then we can buy back in the 200s. We aren't going straight there. And its going to take another 3-5 weeks for this IV to play out anyway.

No reason to assume that the market is in any rush to complete these waves.

you are confused, Im tracking termination of c(B) not C. 20xx not 20x.

Gotcha. Don't understand your 20x or 20xx

chessnut

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Quote from: windjc on October 29, 2014, 01:53:27 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 28, 2014, 09:43:05 PM

The triangle is playing out to the downside. This means we will likely have a great buy in the low 20xx range.

No, we have a C of IV to play out first. Then we can buy back in the 200s. We aren't going straight there. And its going to take another 3-5 weeks for this IV to play out anyway.

No reason to assume that the market is in any rush to complete these waves.

you are confused, Im tracking termination of c(B) not C. 20xx not 20x.

windjc

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Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: chessnut on October 28, 2014, 09:43:05 PM

The triangle is playing out to the downside. This means we will likely have a great buy in the low 20xx range.

No, we have a C of IV to play out first. Then we can buy back in the 200s. We aren't going straight there. And its going to take another 3-5 weeks for this IV to play out anyway.

No reason to assume that the market is in any rush to complete these waves.

chessnut

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The triangle is playing out to the downside. This means we will likely have a great buy in the low 20xx range.

chessnut

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Having said that, Im going to stop with the scalping. A thread is not much good when adapting to market changes needs to be seamless.

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 28, 2014, 07:42:22 PM

Closing a short means buying. Buy! Buy! Wink

just good thing the people who took my trade are'nt everyone Cheesy

Raystonn

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Closing a short means buying. Buy! Buy! Wink

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 28, 2014, 07:14:38 PM

Quote from: chessnut on October 28, 2014, 07:10:51 PM

With shorts on okcoin at a high I think it might be wise to assume a neutral position here. sentiment is a significant part of ew.

Queue the image where everyone switches from "SELL! SELL!" to "BUY! BUY!".

Lol no I just think the trade has lost its strength. we should take profit and see what follows. Its really not bullish or bearish.

Raystonn

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Quote from: chessnut on October 28, 2014, 07:10:51 PM

With shorts on okcoin at a high I think it might be wise to assume a neutral position here. sentiment is a significant part of ew.

Queue the image where everyone switches from "SELL! SELL!" to "BUY! BUY!".

Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 103. (Read 355110 times)