Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 109.

SilentJohn

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Quote from: madmat on October 17, 2014, 11:17:23 AM

You are nearly the only one to post in this thread, but keep going, your posts are read and appreciated.

Second that. One of the most valuable threads in Speculation... I don't follow all the advice but it gives are very good a logical perspective on the price movements.

Thank you again Chessnut.

chessnut

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The reaction to 2385 is a great example of critical EW levels. This level which we could not break in the case of our major count B has held and we have retraced 100% of part of the downwards move. This is a sign that we should look to close our shorts at a small loss, or profit as the case may be. because of this bounce I can confidently say we are probably still in wave B.

having said that it is not a necessarily a good idea to be long here. a break under 2385, however unlikely at this point, could be dangerous for longs.

Thomas-s

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Quote from: madmat on October 17, 2014, 11:17:23 AM

You are nearly the only one to post in this thread, but keep going, your posts are read and appreciated.

Lots of people are lurking Wink

madmat

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You are nearly the only one to post in this thread, but keep going, your posts are read and appreciated.

chessnut

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short now stop over 2326 is a good reward trade. this next leg down could go far.

chessnut

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On the smaller scale we have likely finished a correction and shorting here at 2315 Is a better opportunity than 2300 with lower risk. See how there is no upside follow through and how the price is leaning over.

chessnut

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We have had a small bounce after some volume with no conviction to the up-side. This presents us with a higher confidence opportunity to short above 2300, stop at 2340, although it is still a fairly high risk trade.

chessnut

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2300 is broken, we are looking to short. for the opportunistic above 2300 is an acceptable level to sell with a stoploss above 2340. this is a high risk position. I will try give a better more conservative signal later which will likely be much safer.

Remember - if we are in a state of wave V, we will have many opportunities ahead of us in the coming days, so be patient!

chessnut

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since the market is showing some weakness, I'll give a rough plan what Im going to look for and do if we see signs of impulses down, the possible unfolding of wave V.

The likely hood of a V wave unfolding increases a lot if we break through 2300 easily. I do not want to see slow congestion for hours on end, that I would not touch with the likely hood of us being in wave B. If wee pass through 2300 easily I will look for an abc correction and pick the top. I'd put my stoploss at the highest allowable fib level, which I cannot say yet. what's really important is that we do not chase any downwards movement, because even if 2300 is broken easily there is still a fair chance that wave V is not under way yet, meaning the downside of the move may be limited.

chessnut

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Needless to say, I hope anyone who bought this morning at 2290 took profit at or above 2350 like I advised.

I am keeping a close eye on the price action here. There is a small probability that it could turn very ugly to the down side (wave V situation) but only a small probability.

chessnut

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Quote from: notme on October 16, 2014, 07:32:54 PM

Quote from: chessnut on October 16, 2014, 03:53:18 PM

wave iii is always the strongest move

Not quite, wave 3 is never the weakest move. Bitcoin traditionally has seen many strong 5th waves.

there is size and there is strength. Ive never seen a fifth wave with greater volume than the third, iii is the body of the wave. blowouts can rise on small volume. anyway, it doesnt make a difference in this case.

notme

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Quote from: chessnut on October 16, 2014, 03:53:18 PM

wave iii is always the strongest move

Not quite, wave 3 is never the weakest move. Bitcoin traditionally has seen many strong 5th waves.

chessnut

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Quote from: Raystonn on October 16, 2014, 06:08:14 PM

This would be more useful, and less prone to interference, if you stuck to larger timeframes. Care to post some analysis using daily candles?

That has been done, The whole thread is about termination of wave C and has even reached its conclusion, we are not finished. Now we are just tracking wave IV and V. Look back a few pages.

Raystonn

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This would be more useful, and less prone to interference, if you stuck to larger timeframes. Care to post some analysis using daily candles?

chessnut

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Quote from: newbie123456789 on October 16, 2014, 05:10:25 PM

Stuck in my short from 375 Undecided

I would suggest you close that short on a dip, I am expecting this. we will likely be in this area for a long time so a short at 375 will be stressful.

newbie123456789

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Stuck in my short from 375 Undecided

kryptopojken

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Quote from: chessnut on October 16, 2014, 04:32:25 PM

If you took the long from ~2290, hold it for a little while, we likely have a lot of time range bound in this area. You will get another chance to pick the top of the retrace.

I actually got stopped out at 375 :/

EDIT: sorry, I misunderstood. I didn't have the chance to take the long earlier today. What I meant was I got stopped out of my previous long at 375

chessnut

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If you took the long from ~2290, hold it for a little while, we likely have a lot of time range bound in this area. You will get another chance to pick the top of the retrace.

kryptopojken

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