Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 110.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on October 16, 2014, 03:39:59 PM

Why it is not a possibility that the move from 275 to 416 was wave (i) of an impulsive I and now (from 416 to 370) would be wave (ii) of the same I?

Anything is possible, but in EW terms, it is very very unlikely that we have an impulse there for two reasons, the initial rally was a weak zig zag, and the hypothetical wave iv crossed the trend defined by wave i. This would suggest wave iii was weaker than i when in fact wave iii is always the strongest move.

Take a step back, look at the daily chart. compare this low to 350 low or the 400 low. you see, when bitcoin capitulates, it doesn't mess around afterwards!

eboard10

sr. member

Activity: 261

Merit: 250

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on October 16, 2014, 03:39:59 PM

Why it is not a possibility that the move from 275 to 416 was wave (i) of an impulsive I and now (from 416 to 370) would be wave (ii) of the same I?

That's because we haven't completed the impulsive wave down that started at $683. $275 marks the end of Wave 3 so we still need a Wave 4-5 to fully play out before a bottom is reached.

kryptopojken

hero member

Activity: 767

Merit: 532

Quote from: chessnut on October 16, 2014, 03:36:34 PM

Quote from: kryptopojken on October 16, 2014, 09:19:41 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 15, 2014, 10:53:04 PM

Seems like it was a fakeout, no follow through, stagnant market persists. Im closing out 10yuan down.

Good call sir!

Not the kind of call I like to make, but Im glad you see the good in it Cheesy

I'm starting to think you use black magic given your latest long suggestion Cheesy

well played!

BldSwtTrs

legendary

Activity: 861

Merit: 1010

Why it is not a possibility that the move from 275 to 416 was wave (i) of an impulsive I and now (from 416 to 370) would be wave (ii) of the same I?

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: kryptopojken on October 16, 2014, 09:19:41 AM

Quote from: chessnut on October 15, 2014, 10:53:04 PM

Seems like it was a fakeout, no follow through, stagnant market persists. Im closing out 10yuan down.

Good call sir!

Not the kind of call I like to make, but Im glad you see the good in it Cheesy

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Carra23 on October 16, 2014, 03:27:44 PM

What are the targets for both the scenarios? What are the new lows for Wave V, less than 275?

for wave V count, probably mid 200s. Cant say more than that for now. For wave B count, we will likely drop slowly and painfully to around 345 before an impulsive (easy to trade) rally takes us to 460

Carra23

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

Need a campaign manager? PM me

What are the targets for both the scenarios? What are the new lows for Wave V, less than 275?

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

As noted above, here is the medium term picture. I give bias to b of IV count.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

We have a convincing impulsive count to the downside. This means clarity, but it does not change that there are still two possible medium sized pictures here. Being strongly impulsive, it could be the beginning of wave V to all new lows. I think another situation is equally likely, we are in wave B of IV, why? because we failed to reach an important level, 450.
How will we know which count it is? if it is wave V count, it will be a lot more predictable than wave B. So lets try a process of elimination.

Having said that, right now is a good buy opportunity targeting at least 2350, but only if you can manage your risk very well. stop loss under lows.

I have colour coded the two counts that I am following right now, they are both medium term bearish. I give bias to the B of IV count.

kryptopojken

hero member

Activity: 767

Merit: 532

Are we looking for new lower lows now?

kryptopojken

hero member

Activity: 767

Merit: 532

Quote from: chessnut on October 15, 2014, 10:53:04 PM

Seems like it was a fakeout, no follow through, stagnant market persists. Im closing out 10yuan down.

Good call sir!

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Seems like it was a fakeout, no follow through, stagnant market persists. Im closing out 10yuan down.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

If you like taking a bit of risk to stay ahead, buying at 2430 is a good risk reward entry now, stop loss under 2405. China has not passed critical bear levels, and this impulsive rally could be that illusive v wave we have been looking for. The correction so far is a simple abc and is not showing any conviction to the downside.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Depending on his this impulsive behaviour consolidates, we may be looking for a long signal. stay tuned.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Carra23 on October 15, 2014, 06:42:00 PM

Quote from: chessnut on October 15, 2014, 06:02:30 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on October 15, 2014, 05:54:18 PM

Quote from: btc6000 on October 14, 2014, 12:32:51 AM

Did you short on the 11th, as you advised:

Quote

OK. seems like b wave has terminated cerca 0.618 of a. a stop above the local top, 370, is an excellent risk reward opportunity for shorts. target 330.

One can not always win. Trick is to gain most of the times. Right now he is quite cautious.

I did short at 370, but I also gave a close and buy signal below 370 so who could complain about that? Cool

Long right now? Reasonably confident or have some doubts?

I am in no position right now the market is stagnant, could go either way and we need to wait for clarity. I suggested that we stand back since I saw a possible truncated v, which was the top. I gave a long signal at 2390 but I have also suggested to close that too.

Carra23

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

Need a campaign manager? PM me

Quote from: chessnut on October 15, 2014, 06:02:30 PM

Quote from: Carra23 on October 15, 2014, 05:54:18 PM

Quote from: btc6000 on October 14, 2014, 12:32:51 AM

Did you short on the 11th, as you advised:

Quote

OK. seems like b wave has terminated cerca 0.618 of a. a stop above the local top, 370, is an excellent risk reward opportunity for shorts. target 330.

One can not always win. Trick is to gain most of the times. Right now he is quite cautious.

I did short at 370, but I also gave a close and buy signal below 370 so who could complain about that? Cool

Long right now? Reasonably confident or have some doubts?

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Carra23 on October 15, 2014, 05:54:18 PM

Quote from: btc6000 on October 14, 2014, 12:32:51 AM

Did you short on the 11th, as you advised:

Quote

OK. seems like b wave has terminated cerca 0.618 of a. a stop above the local top, 370, is an excellent risk reward opportunity for shorts. target 330.

One can not always win. Trick is to gain most of the times. Right now he is quite cautious.

I did short at 370, but I also gave a close and buy signal below 370 so who could complain about that? Cool

Carra23

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

Need a campaign manager? PM me

Quote from: btc6000 on October 14, 2014, 12:32:51 AM

Did you short on the 11th, as you advised:

Quote

OK. seems like b wave has terminated cerca 0.618 of a. a stop above the local top, 370, is an excellent risk reward opportunity for shorts. target 330.

One can not always win. Trick is to gain most of the times. Right now he is quite cautious.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

I must mention another possibility that this is only a smaller fractal (wave a) of wave IV. The price ideally should have hit 450, the territory of iv(III).

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

I try my best to do quality, but sometimes I cannot produce a high confidence count. I think that having a low quality count is better than none as long as you know how to use it (or not - as the case may be)

When I give a low confidence count I will usually say not to trade it, rather use it is a defence mechanism.

Having said that yesterday, I still think this market is no good for trading right now.

Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 110. (Read 355110 times)