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Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 36. (Read 355110 times)

full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
June 09, 2015, 01:49:40 PM
[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Indeed, I'm fairly certain that's an ABC. At least I've counted it as one since bottom successfully (with us currently being near the top of C if my count is correct, but it may somehow overextend to complete a triangle wave; see below).



I'm not sure how it fits in with the bigger picture though. At first I figured it was corrective to the preceding impulse, meaning as soon as it is complete we resume the downtrend since $250 top, imo probably to form a 5th wave of some degree since we seemed to lack a 5 when we entered correction.

However I recently noticed this potential triangle which, if valid, would suggest that the ABC is just a triangle subwave, possibly even half a wave ((a) of C) unless c extends to hit upper trendline. It would also mean top of current correction will likely be followed by 2 more corrective waves (D and E). Further the presence of a triangle here would afaik  seem to confirm the downtrend from $300 top being an A, and I think a successful downwards break and C-wave would probably invalidate the triangle count(s) posted by chessnut earlier (unless the hypothetical coming (C) turns out to be extremely underextended).



But I don't even know if it's valid heh, just a thought. Would love some feedback from the resident EW experts =)
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
June 09, 2015, 11:02:09 AM
This is what i'm seeing now.


Top at $303 counts

Brown arrow $213 is a motive. Not sure whether, it is larger 1 of 2   OR an unfolding larger 3 (ie not complete).

Next brown arrow is a corrective of the motive.

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Based on this, probable forecast:

A top at 5 maybe could go up to $240+  OR a weak flat 5. depends on market mood.

But, after that top, should head back down to lower.

Now bring on the comments

*this assumes we are still in a bear, so &166 not final bottom*

There is 1-4 overlap. http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html

Yeah, saw that and immediately made an edit (see above).
full member
Activity: 189
Merit: 100
June 09, 2015, 10:46:07 AM
This is what i'm seeing now.



Top at $303 counts

Brown arrow $213 is a motive. Not sure whether, it is larger 1 of 2   OR an unfolding larger 3 (ie not complete).

Next brown arrow is a corrective of the motive.

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Based on this, probable forecast:

A top at 5 maybe could go up to $240+  OR a weak flat 5. depends on market mood.

But, after that top, should head back down to lower.

Now bring on the comments

*this assumes we are still in a bear, so &166 not final bottom*

There is 1-4 overlap. http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
June 09, 2015, 10:35:42 AM
This is what i'm seeing now.



Top at $303 counts

Brown arrow $213 is a motive. Not sure whether, it is larger 1 of 2   OR an unfolding larger 3 (ie not complete).

Next brown arrow is a corrective of the motive.

[Edit] I see my 4 here breaks the rule of going past 1. SO maybe it could be an ABC instead of 1,2,3,4 5?

Based on this, probable forecast:

A top at 5 maybe could go up to $240+  OR a weak flat 5. depends on market mood.

But, after that top, should head back down to lower.

Now bring on the comments

*this assumes we are still in a bear, so &166 not final bottom*
full member
Activity: 176
Merit: 100
June 07, 2015, 06:54:58 PM
i feel like news moves the market depending on sentiment. so it might be notable that the news around gavincoin (Cheesy) and okcoin haven't caused more of a movement in price.

That's an interesting point. I remember things like...like the PBOC ban (so long ago I know). That caused a real spike down in the market. Lately, not so much. Although, it's not like we really had a big disaster yet, like a hard fork gone awry or another Gox.

News of an impending dump seems to move the market fast. When the news that evolution had done an exit scam got out there was a sudden crash. People must have speculated that the stolen coins would soon be dumped.

When the Mt Gox coins are returned it might spark another panic dump, but I'm only speculating.
hero member
Activity: 697
Merit: 520
June 07, 2015, 06:36:50 PM
i feel like news moves the market depending on sentiment. so it might be notable that the news around gavincoin (Cheesy) and okcoin haven't caused more of a movement in price.

That's an interesting point. I remember things like...like the PBOC ban (so long ago I know). That caused a real spike down in the market. Lately, not so much. Although, it's not like we really had a big disaster yet, like a hard fork gone awry or another Gox.
sr. member
Activity: 479
Merit: 500
June 07, 2015, 06:14:15 PM
i feel like news moves the market depending on sentiment. so it might be notable that the news around gavincoin (Cheesy) and okcoin haven't caused more of a movement in price.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1186
June 07, 2015, 10:58:57 AM
agree with that. i haven't touched the bitcoin market in a couple months. been 50/50 fiat/btc for even longer than that. this market is a real chop fest.

Agreed the only recent trade I made was a short at $231 when the devs, specifically Peter and Gavin, started debating on reddit about the blocksize. News usually isn't a good indicator with bitcoin though so I got lucky on that one.
sr. member
Activity: 479
Merit: 500
June 06, 2015, 09:05:32 PM
agree with that. i haven't touched the bitcoin market in a couple months. been 50/50 fiat/btc for even longer than that. this market is a real chop fest.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
June 06, 2015, 08:37:29 PM
he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago
Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

I think we need to see lower lows to capitulate, in that sense I am bearish, at this local area I think we can climb a bit, in that sense I am bullish, and overall regardless of what I think now, I think that within a year or so from now the chart will allow a rally to $400-$800 level.

What do you make of the flat price action? I tend to fade momentum, but this is flat as a pancake. I don't have any read here.

Times like this just gotta wait and see. Patience is key
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
June 06, 2015, 01:25:50 AM
he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago
Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

I think we need to see lower lows to capitulate, in that sense I am bearish, at this local area I think we can climb a bit, in that sense I am bullish, and overall regardless of what I think now, I think that within a year or so from now the chart will allow a rally to $400-$800 level.

What do you make of the flat price action? I tend to fade momentum, but this is flat as a pancake. I don't have any read here.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
June 06, 2015, 01:21:34 AM
he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago
Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.

I think we need to see lower lows to capitulate, in that sense I am bearish, at this local area I think we can climb a bit, in that sense I am bullish, and overall regardless of what I think now, I think that within a year or so from now the chart will allow a rally to $400-$800 level.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
June 04, 2015, 11:02:42 AM
he was bearish midterm, but he became bullish after the charts went a certain way like a month ago
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
The Golden Rule Rules
June 03, 2015, 09:15:56 PM
Chessnut is bullish now?  I thought you were bullish long term, bear mid term.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
June 02, 2015, 05:58:58 PM
Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?



I dont see what you're trying to say?
 

Ok, the encircled pattern look similar ie a high is made $303 and $249 and a second lower higher follows $298 and $242. Then a move down, several days of green candles up, then more down.

Are we in some sort of corrective from $219 to  $2XX?

I'm bearish now actually.



If you are saying simply that you see a down trend then fair enough, but its an EW thread, we are looking for a more sophisticated approach. imo trend is a fallacy, you cant win with trend alone.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
June 02, 2015, 09:05:57 AM
Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?



I dont see what you're trying to say?
 

Ok, the encircled pattern look similar ie a high is made $303 and $249 and a second lower higher follows $298 and $242. Then a move down, several days of green candles up, then more down.

Are we in some sort of corrective from $219 to  $2XX?

I'm bearish now actually.

full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
June 02, 2015, 08:36:44 AM
My count says a tsunami is coming. Not sure in which direction, tho

same with me! it'll be quite soon
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
June 02, 2015, 08:17:17 AM
Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?



I dont see what you're trying to say?

You have no idea now chessnut? Wink Your last bullish charts were pretty naive Grin

I said there was no reason why we shouldnt test the upper 1300s. I still do not see good enough reason to be very bearish here.

As for ideas I have plenty to work with but need the local evidence to present its self first.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
June 02, 2015, 07:31:26 AM
Hi Chessnut?

I'm i onto something here?

hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
June 02, 2015, 06:22:02 AM
You have no idea now chessnut? Wink Your last bullish charts were pretty naive Grin
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