Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 37. (Read 355110 times)

No good trying to catch it, at this rate its aiming a bit deeper over the coming days, it will be slow to turn. Wait for it and see what it does. 1d Macd turnining down, dont wanna fight that without substantial evidence.

hours to days

What sort of time frame do you think that might happen over, weeks or months?

My guesstimate for the next local bottom is 210$ - 215$, with rebound to 225$ - 230$, followed by a lot more downtrend.
Stopping now at 221$ would be somewhat bullish IMO.

Looking for a bottom to form now? How can we confirm a temporary bottom? Going back over $230?

Hey chessnut, that's nice to read mate, the price is very deflating atm.
Even 400 USD seems like a million miles away atm.
It's nice to see somebody like yourself predict 400-800 USD within the next year or so as you don't have any agenda, you call it how you see it.
The thing about this forum now is that there are too many trolls with agendas trying to trick people to suit their stance or 'what they want to happen'.
Nice to read that post any way, sorry to bother you.

Exited my longs 

$225 mental stop loss was it for me. Spike to $223, had to cut. Now to observe and see if we head back up.

The current crush? crash? I think that the true bottom probably lies in the $80-150 area but weather we reach this year doesnt change that I think in terms of EW that bitcoin will likely see $400-$800 territory again without much trouble in the next year. I am bullish on bitcoin very long term, the larger counts can accommodate the theoretical market caps of 40-400bln and possibly more, although I think that is not up to EW to decide at this point.

I would like to hear your feedback about the current crush and what do you think about the current situation ? Bullish ?

Seems to be a flat rather than a triangle, not a surprise really as I noted earlier that this could be a flat.


Im waiting a few days for the bears to gently push this toward the 62% fib, then we can look for a potential bottom to form. 1375 is fair game. If so It could produce a strong bullish opportunity.

@chessnut, update please.

Nobody missed out on any great counts (not from me at least) 

Im glad to say that the TV EW tool has been totally transformed. Love it.
 
The count is fairly ambiguous as correctives tend to be but the bias is clearly bullish. While the triangle is valid at this stage there is no evidence to say it is not a part of a flat that will correct to the 62% area.



As we are approaching the point of decision I would like to introduce of the of the best candidates for a bullish case we have. An EW trader on TV called Anil mangil seems to like this one. I think its valid and since the Leading Diagonal the decline could be is in fact a rare case in nature I would argue this one has a fair shot at unfolding. Too early to tell in any case.

+1

We could start a backup thread on reddit as a contingency plan for future downtime here. No doubt it will remain empty unless bitcointalk goes offline, but it could be useful in the future.

I usually lurk on this thread. It was deeply missed during the downtime.

I want to thank everyone who regularly contributes. Your comments are all deeply appreciated.

Much gratitude,

a.

I missed you all Really. Itchy fingers yearning to login to bitcointalk.

Glad we're back up again.

-Someone should chart a price chart fused with bitcointalk shutdown times (ALL).

-Also, any chance of swiping contacts beyond this forum? Just in case we ever shut down again. Hangout? ANything

My count says a tsunami is coming. Not sure in which direction, tho

exactly. i would not want to be shorting btc right now. the charts are still showing indecision and the fundamentals are saying up.

With the extra demand created by XBT and subsequently by GBTC, we should see some uptrend for a period of time. Day one on the dip should be understandable but further movement will likely be something different. The next days should see a hallelujah factor, so thx for chiming in.

Well I think (or hope heh) it will more likely be followed by a large (C)-wave up to $260-level that will conclude the entire rise/correction from $215. In other words, my primary local count atm is that the aforementioned potential next wave down should terminate v of (c) of E (in case of chess' expanding triangle) of (B), after which we should see the second, impulsive half of the larger correction up. However, this is but the personal opinion of a sheep, and there are many other ways it could develop if we even bounce at all.

I guess (think?) it is also possible the bounce will be corrective to a major trend down, in that case probably 4 of (1) of III or something, which would likely retrace to $235-$238 i.e. same price level we've been at for the last week as you mention, after which we get more down. I don't find this scenario very plausible (and perhaps not even valid), and my gut tells me the larger rise isn't over yet, but the question of which alternative will play out doesn't matter too much right now as it can be better determined later once the bounce actually occurs by looking at its subwave structure. What I am fairly certain of at this point though is that there should be a bounce soon and that it could potentially be very strong, hence my warning about shorting here.

A rough illustration, with my preferred alternative in white/green and a possible count for Wave III scenario in red:




Note that the pic is not so detailed and subwave labels, especially around (a) - (b), are approximate and may be off. The count is rather messy as I'm struggling with confidently identifying the exact wave form and position at places, which admittedly also increases the possibility that I'm completely wrong lol, so take it as you will.