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Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 58. (Read 355104 times)

legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
March 05, 2015, 10:28:19 AM
What % chance would you assign to a blowout?  5% or 65%?

hehe i was going to ask the same question, % chance & timeframe is kinda critical to making a trade decision.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
March 05, 2015, 09:33:18 AM
What % chance would you assign to a blowout?  5% or 65%?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 05, 2015, 07:22:31 AM
The five wave climb seems weaker than expected at this point but the form is still good. As wave i and iii tend toward equality there is a chance of a blowout fifth wave towards 2000-2200 yuan over the coming 72 hrs.

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 04, 2015, 06:12:17 PM
There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

Not necessarily.  Flags/wedges (bull in this case) sometimes have violent moves in the opposite direction.



In terms of EW, necessary. but anything is possible.
hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
March 04, 2015, 10:20:55 AM
There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

Not necessarily.  Flags/wedges (bull in this case) sometimes have violent moves in the opposite direction.

legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
March 04, 2015, 06:57:37 AM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Really? I find that hard to believe. This rise up has been gradual - almost authentic. Plus, all the good news coming out.

So.. imo better to ask chessnut what % chance does he think we'll see a lower low this year?
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
March 04, 2015, 06:25:38 AM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Really? I find that hard to believe. This rise up has been gradual - almost authentic. Plus, all the good news coming out.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
March 04, 2015, 05:56:41 AM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Wow i just dont see how we get down there but whatever i'll keep an eye out, any price under $200 and i'd buying another 30-40 coins.

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.

Yeah i think i saw danv's vid on youtube say something similar like this unless we go down to make a new low soon.  I dont get why we couldn't just start a bubble from here though. 

Another note: I would suggest speaking in % chances of outcomes all the time to all geniune market predictors.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 04, 2015, 05:45:54 AM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Wow i just dont see how we get down there but whatever i'll keep an eye out, any price under $200 and i'd buying another 30-40 coins.

There is a chance we dont see another yearly bottom, however if not then the bear market will probably advance sideways under $800 for some time, more time than we have already spent in the bear market.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
March 04, 2015, 04:38:08 AM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not

Wow i just dont see how we get down there but whatever i'll keep an eye out, any price under $200 and i'd buying another 30-40 coins.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 03, 2015, 07:34:49 PM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?

yearly bottom? probably not
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
March 03, 2015, 03:57:24 PM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.



Do you think the bottom is in yet?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 02, 2015, 04:39:12 PM
We might be at the crunch point, wave (iii) of iii. This could be the bigger picture.

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 01, 2015, 10:26:30 PM

does this news change the outlook BEFORE the news came out? OR does it amplify the move up?

We call news a catalyst in EW analysis. The market cannot make a substantial move unless it is prepared to move, in other words if the crowd is positioned to move. If it were not for the news right now the climb would not be as steep, but it probably would be climbing regardless. News or no, the fundamentals remain the same.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
March 01, 2015, 06:49:25 PM
The sideways consolidation over the last couple of days produced a triangle that was ripe for a breakout today. It broke to the down side sharply, most characteristic of a triangle. From an EW perspective this is a relief and a blessing because this is exactly how a triangle should fit into the bigger picture here, wave b of 2, a terminal move before wave 3 can take us higher towards 300. The primary wave often retraces 0.618% before wave iii. I am looking for a bottom to form near the 0.618 fib soon.



This seems to be catalysed by news https://archive.today/G5R1Z#selection-1208.0-1320.3

does this news change the outlook BEFORE the news came out? OR does it amplify the move up?
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
March 01, 2015, 06:24:31 PM
First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down? Roll Eyes

The power of EW. Multiple counts could be valid and you have to switch quickly when one suddenly invalidates.

No, I say we are going up period. DanV changed his mind, unknown why to me, and said we are going down, why did I feel the need to post this? for the protection of traders who are following my analysis. You have to be prepared for both ways. Madmat, not all trades are created equal, and I sense sarcasm in what you say, but you are actually right in a sense that EW provides us the best defined expectations for a trade. EW traders may be supple and emotionally detached because yes, we do know exactly when we are wrong. EW is what it is.

I sounded sarcastic, but it was to express my frustration. Because I am not a trader, I trade to learn about Bitcoin as trading is part of it, and it is hard for me to see when it invalidates and when I have to cut my positions. I think it is the reason why you don't want to post anymore about short term. When the count is invalidated, the time you post and it is too late.

I follow your thread carefully and I won some money thanks to your posts. Keep posting.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 01, 2015, 06:15:20 PM
The sideways consolidation over the last couple of days produced a triangle that was ripe for a breakout today. It broke to the down side sharply, most characteristic of a triangle. From an EW perspective this is a relief and a blessing because this is exactly how a triangle should fit into the bigger picture here, wave b of 2, a terminal move before wave 3 can take us higher towards 300. The primary wave often retraces 0.618% before wave iii. I am looking for a bottom to form near the 0.618 fib soon.



This seems to be catalysed by news https://archive.today/G5R1Z#selection-1208.0-1320.3
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
March 01, 2015, 05:54:08 PM
First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down? Roll Eyes

The power of EW. Multiple counts could be valid and you have to switch quickly when one suddenly invalidates.

No, I say we are going up period. DanV changed his mind, unknown why to me, and said we are going down, why did I feel the need to post this? for the protection of traders who are following my analysis. You have to be prepared for both ways. Madmat, not all trades are created equal, and I sense sarcasm in what you say, but you are actually right in a sense that EW provides us the best defined expectations for a trade. EW traders may be supple and emotionally detached because yes, we do know exactly when we are wrong. EW is what it is.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
March 01, 2015, 02:52:36 PM
First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down? Roll Eyes

The power of EW. Multiple counts could be valid and you have to switch quickly when one suddenly invalidates.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
March 01, 2015, 02:36:03 PM
First you say we're going up, then you say we're going down? Roll Eyes
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