You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?
I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.
A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.
That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?
Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.
It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.
Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.
FOMO is the other side of panic. Both are extremely strong in this market. This market is heavily reactionary due to inexperience amongst traders. Whale moves price->traders follow (usually too late)->whale pushes back->sheep... You know. Eventually, we hit a point of exhaustion, and it cools off. But the overshooting is usually immense first.
Wouldn't it be fair to assume that Bitcoin also has now a minority of experienced traders? The crazy spikes must be really profitable for them. What's your opinion on this overshooting, btw? Do you agree with chessnut's opinion on finding a bedrock at $100?
It's pretty much always been the case, as is the case with all financial markets. 80% will lose so that 20% can win. The past bubbles definitely draw in a lot of market newbs with delusions of grandeur where they will either learn what they do wrong and fix it (yes, even if this means 1BTC always equals 1BTC, a variation of FOMO and as I said, FOMO is BIG in this market), or they lose their money and leave. A sort of Darwinism. It's a fact of all markets.
$100? I do believe it's possible. and even lower too. I won't put a guarantee that we'll get there, but I definitely do not discount it either. I also do not think the bottom is in. Now, if we end this bear market with a truncated 5th or a failed C (meaning it fails make a lower low below the previous low) then yes, THE bottom (lowest low) is in, but the bear market lives on, imo. Until weakness in the movement presents itself during the final pushes, I expect a lower low. If I see weakness and all other requirements are fulfilled, I can confidently call the Bear market, Dead. I have not seen such things yet, so I don't envision moons or trains or rockets... It's just not my thing.
