Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 70.

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Quote from: chessnut on December 21, 2014, 02:24:36 PM

So much talk about a new bull run beginning Huh

Ive seen online articles published about this little movement from 1870.

There is nothing substantial to support this.

I am still expecting us to wander in zig zags for a month or so to form an ending diagonal. Bad trading environment. Its gonna suck.

Id like to leave you all with this video I find relevant to the thread. See how although the particles of the system are sometimes hopelessly out of phase, they never fail to find a common denominator given time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVkdfJ9PkRQ

By my most probable counts, two weeks from now it should be clear where the market is going.
If there will be a slow uptrend, eventually breaking resistance at 365$, in which case 275$ was THE bottom, or
there will be a slow downtrend which will accelerate about two weeks from now and crash probably below 200$.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

So much talk about a new bull run beginning Huh

Ive seen online articles published about this little movement from 1870.

There is nothing substantial to support this.

I am still expecting us to wander in zig zags for a month or so to form an ending diagonal. Bad trading environment. Its gonna suck.

Id like to leave you all with this video I find relevant to the thread. See how although the particles of the system are sometimes hopelessly out of phase, they never fail to find a common denominator given time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVkdfJ9PkRQ

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: podyx on December 21, 2014, 11:11:38 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 21, 2014, 11:06:12 AM

After the first bounce in the box...
img..

yup , after the box

Arbitrary starting point cannot be trusted. Even if it goes as he says, it's not because of his counting.

I see so much of this on tradingview and in here. People see what they want to see and ignore the data that contradicts their biased view.
It is possible that the rise we have seen is only an A of a larger ABC, but it's not impulsive right now. There is far too much overlap in this whole rise to say it's anything other than a corrective bounce with the data that is available.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 21, 2014, 11:06:12 AM

After the first bounce in the box...

yup , after the box

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: podyx on December 21, 2014, 09:58:31 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 21, 2014, 09:55:43 AM

Quote from: Trolololo on December 21, 2014, 07:12:38 AM

Quote

(...) looked again at the short term charts. What was I looking for? Elliott Waves in waves of 5 going up. As you may know, their return (after a very long absence) will signal that the market has turned – i.e., the bear has died. Happily, I see 5 waves up growing like mushrooms after a summer rain, on the 5 & 15-minute charts. (...)

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-bull-market-has-begun/

There is no context (dates or time) of where those waves started. After the first bounce, likely, which means it's not impulsive and is a reason why the first "5 waver" on the left is invalid due to overlap.

19 dec 7:00

After the first bounce in the box...

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 21, 2014, 09:55:43 AM

Quote from: Trolololo on December 21, 2014, 07:12:38 AM

Quote

(...) looked again at the short term charts. What was I looking for? Elliott Waves in waves of 5 going up. As you may know, their return (after a very long absence) will signal that the market has turned – i.e., the bear has died. Happily, I see 5 waves up growing like mushrooms after a summer rain, on the 5 & 15-minute charts. (...)

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-bull-market-has-begun/

There is no context (dates or time) of where those waves started. After the first bounce, likely, which means it's not impulsive and is a reason why the first "5 waver" on the left is invalid due to overlap.

19 dec 7:00

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Trolololo on December 21, 2014, 07:12:38 AM

Quote

(...) looked again at the short term charts. What was I looking for? Elliott Waves in waves of 5 going up. As you may know, their return (after a very long absence) will signal that the market has turned – i.e., the bear has died. Happily, I see 5 waves up growing like mushrooms after a summer rain, on the 5 & 15-minute charts. (...)

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-bull-market-has-begun/

There is no context (dates or time) of where those waves started. After the first bounce, likely, which means it's not impulsive and is a reason why the first "5 waver" on the left is invalid due to overlap.

Trolololo

sr. member

Activity: 263

Merit: 280

Quote

(...) looked again at the short term charts. What was I looking for? Elliott Waves in waves of 5 going up. As you may know, their return (after a very long absence) will signal that the market has turned – i.e., the bear has died. Happily, I see 5 waves up growing like mushrooms after a summer rain, on the 5 & 15-minute charts. (...)

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-bull-market-has-begun/

BitCoinNutJob

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1000

Quote from: sniveling on December 18, 2014, 11:14:24 AM

Quote from: BitCoinNutJob on December 18, 2014, 10:52:21 AM

Quote from: sniveling on December 18, 2014, 09:03:48 AM

It went down 16x after it hit $32 and if it falls by that amount this time the bottom would be $75, which seems totally unbelievable right now. I thought $270 was the bottom and I'm shocked we have almost hit $300 again.

16x with mtgox in total control of the market remember, we dont know what games they were up to. $75 would mean its basically dead, same as zero.

I was not into crypto that long ago. So it was all down to fat Mr Karples then?

i wasnt in crypto on that drop but do you remember the $266 - $50 drop and the shutting down gox right after for market cool down? lol

sniveling

sr. member

Activity: 719

Merit: 250

Quote from: BitCoinNutJob on December 18, 2014, 10:52:21 AM

Quote from: sniveling on December 18, 2014, 09:03:48 AM

It went down 16x after it hit $32 and if it falls by that amount this time the bottom would be $75, which seems totally unbelievable right now. I thought $270 was the bottom and I'm shocked we have almost hit $300 again.

16x with mtgox in total control of the market remember, we dont know what games they were up to. $75 would mean its basically dead, same as zero.

I was not into crypto that long ago. So it was all down to fat Mr Karples then?

BitCoinNutJob

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1000

Quote from: sniveling on December 18, 2014, 09:03:48 AM

It went down 16x after it hit $32 and if it falls by that amount this time the bottom would be $75, which seems totally unbelievable right now. I thought $270 was the bottom and I'm shocked we have almost hit $300 again.

16x with mtgox in total control of the market remember, we dont know what games they were up to. $75 would mean its basically dead, same as zero.

sniveling

sr. member

Activity: 719

Merit: 250

It went down 16x after it hit $32 and if it falls by that amount this time the bottom would be $75, which seems totally unbelievable right now. I thought $270 was the bottom and I'm shocked we have almost hit $300 again.

DieJohnny

legendary

Activity: 1639

Merit: 1006

Quote from: prophetx on December 17, 2014, 04:05:00 PM

Quote from: Afrikoin on December 17, 2014, 05:03:50 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 16, 2014, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: ask on December 16, 2014, 09:12:17 AM

Is there sometning wrong, because there are no updates anymore?

Or... EW doesn't work ....

I've made more money with EW than anyone ever has with a 3d MACD Wink

BTW, how is that working out for ya? It's looking pretty grim for your strategy, now :/
Just remember my post in your thread

EW works alright. Like Ryan said, his posts from a while back. I was expecting this dip (now 323).

yea i'm just waiting for this puppy to crap red candles all over people's screens and hit prices people never thought would be reached.

then i will wait a bit more, then start dipping my toes in the water

i'm thinking sub 200s would get a lot of people's attention

the markets show no mercy...

I do wonder what true bottom would be. Bitcoin because of its virtual nature has a bottom that is far below what people realize. I think this drop will be the drop that in 5 years will help people realize that Bitcoin is never going to die regardless of what you think it is worth. This is the drop that creates trust believe it or not. Because it will not die not matter how low it goes and it will not go away.

I think it can go below $100 though, or even $50. True usage simply isn't outpacing the people wanting to sell simple as that.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

this seems to be wave V unfolding as an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals unfold in threes when wave iii has gone too far too fast, as the market lacks the energy to unfold in five impulsive waves. Wave iii did extended 2.8x wave i, overshooting the fib target by a fair amount. This is why we have been drifting so frustratingly sideways and now downwards.

We have now seen the worst of wave V of (C), and I am expecting a volatile and range bound market. We will see lower lows in the case of wave V, but they will be limited and difficult to profit from. It should last a month, maybe two at a stretch.

Wave V will be immediately clear in retrospect. This will be very useful to us, as it will offer a clear cut buy signal. This will be a very special signal as it will be the first that I can say with confidence that I expect to be the bottom. Until then, take care.

prophetx

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1010

he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: Afrikoin on December 17, 2014, 05:03:50 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 16, 2014, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: ask on December 16, 2014, 09:12:17 AM

Is there sometning wrong, because there are no updates anymore?

Or... EW doesn't work ....

I've made more money with EW than anyone ever has with a 3d MACD Wink

BTW, how is that working out for ya? It's looking pretty grim for your strategy, now :/
Just remember my post in your thread

EW works alright. Like Ryan said, his posts from a while back. I was expecting this dip (now 323).

yea i'm just waiting for this puppy to crap red candles all over people's screens and hit prices people never thought would be reached.

then i will wait a bit more, then start dipping my toes in the water

i'm thinking sub 200s would get a lot of people's attention

the markets show no mercy...

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 16, 2014, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: ask on December 16, 2014, 09:12:17 AM

Is there sometning wrong, because there are no updates anymore?

Or... EW doesn't work ....

I've made more money with EW than anyone ever has with a 3d MACD Wink

BTW, how is that working out for ya? It's looking pretty grim for your strategy, now :/
Just remember my post in your thread

EW works alright. Like Ryan said, his posts from a while back. I was expecting this dip (now 323).

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: podyx on December 16, 2014, 08:55:19 PM

You're confident that we'll see another bubble? Huh

If we would reach over $5k in 2015, that would to me, imply that bitcoin is here to stay.
It has bled so much now that smaller price action is needed to feel comfortable IMO

yep we will likely see another bubble. it may struggle to reach $5000, it may even fail under $1000, but another bubble towards $1000 is highly probable in EW terms.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

You're confident that we'll see another bubble? Huh

If we would reach over $5k in 2015, that would to me, imply that bitcoin is here to stay.
It has bled so much now that smaller price action is needed to feel comfortable IMO

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

I have not forgotten the thread. There are counts brewing, we will ride the next bubble. The current conditions are no good for EW though.

There is a chance that we will drift down to 250 as an ending diagonal wave V unfolds. This will be really unfriendly and untradable, but will precede a great long opportunity.

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ask on December 16, 2014, 02:17:52 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 16, 2014, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: ask on December 16, 2014, 09:12:17 AM

Is there sometning wrong, because there are no updates anymore?

Or... EW doesn't work ....

I've made more money with EW than anyone ever has with a 3d MACD Wink

BTW, how is that working out for ya? It's looking pretty grim for your strategy, now :/
Just remember my post in your thread

3d MACD is nothing special it is an indicator which worked fine (see my posts where I sold 470+ on bfx). But EW... EW is promoted like rocket science, but in practice it doesnt work.

Elliot Wave is but one tool in a craftsman's box, and like any craftsman, an Elliotician carries other tools too, and is aware of his environment and what the material he is working with too. If you chisel across the grain you will splinter the wood. If you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. FWIW, EW incorporates a faster moving version of MACD as a fundamental indicator. It's like a cordless electric drill with exchangeable heads, vs a screwdriver.
But like any tool, if not used correctly the results will be be poor.

There is ALWAYS another count on all levels. It is evolving all the time. Ignoring this and getting too stuck in one view and will not work out well in the long run.

It is art, not science, and Ryan is without doubt a consumate artist.

Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 70. (Read 355110 times)