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Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 72. (Read 355110 times)

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 08:43:31 AM


IMO it's likely to test support at 320$ soon, and a dead cat bounce to follow, then test 275$.
I have checked the current market movements against those of October - November 2011, when a crippled start of wave 1 resulted in a double bottom at ~2$.
And I found that the current market is bearisher than that, so my most probable scenario is that we are still in wave C.

Yes, that seems like a very likely path if we are indeed now in V of C

legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
December 09, 2014, 08:29:58 AM
From DanV, this is a much more likely scenario IMO, with the next impulse down to test the lows now unfolding
It is what I have been watching for the last weeks and seems to be going exactly according to plan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3h0MJ3jI/

Also been following him for a couple months, he was spot on with the last move up, not sure about this one.  I like his approach of not working too hard - focusing on the price movements daily.  Also he thinks its time to buy Litecoin now, im in already Smiley.

The uncertainty is a characteristic of a Wave 1  Wink
People becoming certain and piling on would create the characteristic thrust of a Wave 3 , if this is indeed the correct count, which of course, remains to be seen ...

IMO it's likely to test support at 320$ soon, and a dead cat bounce to follow, then test 275$.
I have checked the current market movements against those of October - November 2011, when a crippled start of wave 1 resulted in a double bottom at ~2$.
And I found that the current market is bearisher than that, so my most probable scenario is that we are still in wave C.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 08:12:03 AM
From DanV, this is a much more likely scenario IMO, with the next impulse down to test the lows now unfolding
It is what I have been watching for the last weeks and seems to be going exactly according to plan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3h0MJ3jI/

Also been following him for a couple months, he was spot on with the last move up, not sure about this one.  I like his approach of not working too hard - focusing on the price movements daily.  Also he thinks its time to buy Litecoin now, im in already Smiley.

The uncertainty is a characteristic of a Wave 1  Wink
People becoming certain and piling on would create the characteristic thrust of a Wave 3 , if this is indeed the correct count, which of course, remains to be seen ...
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 08:05:11 AM
From DanV, this is a much more likely scenario IMO, with the next impulse down to test the lows now unfolding
It is what I have been watching for the last weeks and seems to be going exactly according to plan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3h0MJ3jI/

Also been following him for a couple months, he was spot on with the last move up, not sure about this one.  I like his approach of not working too hard - focusing on the price movements daily.  Also he thinks its time to buy Litecoin now, im in already Smiley.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 07:49:07 AM
From DanV, this is a much more likely scenario IMO, with the next impulse down to test the lows now unfolding
It is what I have been watching for the last weeks and seems to be going exactly according to plan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3h0MJ3jI/

AFAIK between WXY and triangle (which is Z) formation should be one more X giving us W-X-Y-X-Z.

Label it differently with A as the $418 high (14 Oct), B as the $318 low (2nd Nov) followed by W-X- Y, with the triangle being the Y .  W = 454, X = 342, Y = 377.5 at end of the triangle.
That would complete IV and see us in V of (C) now
DanV seems to have his own unique system of labelling I am told !
 Smiley

I suggested it here, but got no feedback ...

Figure 20 flipped over (as this could all be an upwards correction in a downtrend) seems like a possiblilty here, a triple 3 off $275 ending in a triangle for Y (end of IV), and a break to the downside on completion, the start of Wave V

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

Any thoughts Ellioticians ??



I had a PM chat with someone I respect, who confirmed that it was entirely valid

EDIT: corrected labelling
sr. member
Activity: 427
Merit: 250
December 09, 2014, 07:36:48 AM
From DanV, this is a much more likely scenario IMO, with the next impulse down to test the lows now unfolding
It is what I have been watching for the last weeks and seems to be going exactly according to plan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3h0MJ3jI/

AFAIK between WXY and triangle (which is Z) formation should be one more X giving us W-X-Y-X-Z.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 07:21:39 AM
From DanV, this is a much more likely scenario IMO, with the next impulse down to test the lows now unfolding
It is what I have been watching for the last weeks and seems to be going exactly according to plan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3h0MJ3jI/
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 04:50:41 AM
Rough count - since you asked.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ia9aG4CX/


Suggests we are possibly headed towards a 3rd wave. Tradable opportunity with a $10 stoploss doesn't come up often.

1-2-(1)-(2)-i-ii

Thanks for this chart. I don't really understand where the 3 (the green one) is going to be, I have to study EW a lot more i think. I am a little bit lost.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
December 09, 2014, 04:44:50 AM
Rough count - since you asked.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ia9aG4CX/


Suggests we are possibly headed towards a 3rd wave. Tradable opportunity with a $10 stoploss doesn't come up often.

1-2-(1)-(2)-i-ii

Oh, wow, I wish!
newbie
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
December 09, 2014, 04:29:17 AM
Rough count - since you asked.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ia9aG4CX/


Suggests we are possibly headed towards a 3rd wave. Tradable opportunity with a $10 stoploss doesn't come up often.

1-2-(1)-(2)-i-ii
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2014, 04:17:49 AM
[A wild CryptoWaves appears]

There is simply no impulse, this market has no motive, EW will not be effective until there is.

You got that right. Keep fighting the good fight, Chessnut! My two cents - triple nested 1-2 up since the $275 bottom, valid as long as tonight's low holds.

 Wink

Could you explain the meaning of it ?
newbie
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
December 09, 2014, 04:13:31 AM
[A wild CryptoWaves appears]

There is simply no impulse, this market has no motive, EW will not be effective until there is.

You got that right. Keep fighting the good fight, Chessnut! My two cents - triple nested 1-2 up since the $275 bottom, valid as long as tonight's low holds.

 Wink
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
December 08, 2014, 07:34:05 PM
Permabull doesn't need any analysis and charts  Grin

Im not a perma bull, Ive ridden some great shorts actually and probably many to come.

Chessnut, I think it's time to let go of the "trending toward 2450" scenario and think about the next local bottom, 2100 or 1950?

I agree that the idea we are trending has changed but I do not agree that entails we should turn bearish right now. I think this market could burn bears here.

There is simply no impulse, this market has no motive, EW will not be effective until there is.
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 565
December 08, 2014, 03:18:13 PM
Permabull doesn't need any analysis and charts  Grin

yep...if you are a permabull, why do you need chart? you already know what will happen..
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
December 08, 2014, 11:26:22 AM
Good man ^^
hero member
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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe
legendary
Activity: 3556
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#1 VIP Crypto Casino
December 08, 2014, 10:23:09 AM
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
December 08, 2014, 09:51:08 AM
Chessnut, I think it's time to let go of the "trending toward 2450" scenario and think about the next local bottom, 2100 or 1950?
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
December 08, 2014, 08:28:18 AM
Permabull doesn't need any analysis and charts  Grin
hero member
Activity: 900
Merit: 1014
advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe
December 06, 2014, 02:26:38 PM
Can you do a long term wave view like on the monthly chart? Smiley I would love to see that for some long term understanding of what this market is going to do. (I am a permabull of course...)
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