A word of warning not to chase the price here. it seems that we have broken out of a triangle. triangles are terminal moves. this means the price could retrace all the way back down to 2440 before further progress.
And after retrace to 2440?
Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 84. (Read 355110 times)
And after retrace to 2440?
A word of warning not to chase the price here. it seems that we have broken out of a triangle. triangles are terminal moves. this means the price could retrace all the way back down to 2440 before further progress.
Agree, this looks ready to breakout now.
Is that chart predicting the price should peak in about a day and a half?
This is a breakout. wave iv/II could easily be complete here. we have been hurt going long in the recent weeks but a clear signal and a good risk reward ratio here is not to be sneered at. The price action to the downside is weak and diverging, and we are near critical levels such as hypothetical iv of I, or hypothetical ii of (i). Buying the bottom is always more ballsy but we are still targeting around 2800 yuan at least for wave v, and much higher in case of hypothetical wave III.
Agree, this looks ready to breakout now.
This is a breakout. wave iv/II could easily be complete here. we have been hurt going long in the recent weeks but a clear signal and a good risk reward ratio here is not to be sneered at. The price action to the downside is weak and diverging, and we are near critical levels such as hypothetical iv of I, or hypothetical ii of (i). Buying the bottom is always more ballsy but we are still targeting around 2800 yuan at least for wave v, and much higher in case of hypothetical wave III.
Chessnut,
I'm a little surprised you dont think we could be in a v of IV of C (of a larger IV wave). Seems to be the consensus of many.
I'm a little surprised you dont think we could be in a v of IV of C (of a larger IV wave). Seems to be the consensus of many.
I see the possibility for sure but it is not my dominant count. Truncated V is quite a plausible count imo and taking a step back looking at the 1d and 3d charts I dont see how we can easily go lower.
Of coarse I will be looking for confirmations for both counts. Ill change my mind when I see the evidence. It doesn't make a difference to a long bias at this stage.
Chessnut,
I'm a little surprised you dont think we could be in a v of IV of C (of a larger IV wave). Seems to be the consensus of many.
I'm a little surprised you dont think we could be in a v of IV of C (of a larger IV wave). Seems to be the consensus of many.
I really must stop following this thread.
Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.
Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.
simple, GTFO
I really must stop following this thread.
Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.
Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.
Unwatch button is here for you.
I really must stop following this thread.
Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.
Never seen so much unsuccessful guesswork in my life.
lol, this is what I was thinking just a minute ago
you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?
you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?
the bottom could be a fair bit lower, we should see whenn It happens.
Hmm... I'm really considering enter a 20x leverage position here and put a stop loss at $375
lol, this is what I was thinking just a minute ago
you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?
you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?
the bottom could be a fair bit lower, we should see whenn It happens.
The diverging slide to the downside last night is an incomplete impulsive. This is likely wave C of a larger ABC. When this impulsive terminates it will offer us a buy opportunity.
Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.
we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.
img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/80fReyOt/[/img]
Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.
we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.
img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/80fReyOt/[/img]
lol, this is what I was thinking just a minute ago
you mean bottom here or bottom at 2160?
The diverging slide to the downside last night is an incomplete impulsive. This is likely wave C of a larger ABC. When this impulsive terminates it will offer us a buy opportunity.
Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.
we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.
Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.
we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.
Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.
short and long are terms to use if you are using leverage
not necessarily according to this http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp
Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.
Was that rational or emotional decision?
stop losss at $ 382. Rational i'd say
Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.
Was that rational or emotional decision?
Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.
short and long are terms to use if you are using leverage
Sold part of my position at $ 378. According to me, it broke the triangle to the downside. I am still long a considerable part of my portfolio.
Someone wants to create panic. Chessnut, thank you very much again for your analysis. Your EW analysis was a very valuable tool for me to know, how the market *should* move and helped me to identify the ongoing market manipulation at the moment. As I expected the current market move after yesterdays manipulation it was clear to me that sombody would try to push the market below current critical levels. I have placed my buy orders accordingly and collected quite a few btc for a good price.
Personally I think that the bear whale(s) are out of ammo atm and the price will now move up significantly.
EW analysis is definitely not a magic tool to look into the future, but it can be a very helpful market opinion. Please keep up your great work!
Personally I think that the bear whale(s) are out of ammo atm and the price will now move up significantly.
EW analysis is definitely not a magic tool to look into the future, but it can be a very helpful market opinion. Please keep up your great work!
Jump to: